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AA vs. Big River Bet AA vs. Big River Bet

06-23-2018 , 05:56 PM
Hand is good if you folded. Turn is a good spot to check. If the board was like 822-4 two tone, then all the comments about missing value are deserved.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-23-2018 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
Well, I never know if they have a set though and there are five different cards that could have given him one. I like to shove flops but rivers i'm more cautious with people calling two/three streets. I don't think that's a leak because most of my wins are with 2 pair or better hands in terms of net money.
You're thinking about the value of one pair in a scared, "monsters infer the bed" fashion and basically trying to come up with reasons to justify scared play. $1-2 opponents will often, OFTEN pay off at least two streets of value with less than TPTK. They make those hands much more often than they make sets or two pair.

This is a much more fundamental leak than how you play this one particular hand (which was fine to fold in isolation).
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-23-2018 , 10:56 PM
I disagree. This isn't Monsters under the bed thinking, when the boards are terrible it's essential to take that into consideration. NL 1/2 is filled with guys who raise with AK hit it and then stack off mindlessly. It's not me and I'm glad about that.
1 pair is, in my experience, a two streets of value hand. The average winning hand in NL is 2 pair, not one pair.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-23-2018 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
This is a much more fundamental leak than how you play this one particular hand (which was fine to fold in isolation).
Do you have any constructive suggestions?

Paying off big raises or bets on the river in 1/2 is a serious problem for most players. Why would you suggest that I do so?
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-23-2018 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
Do you have any constructive suggestions?

Paying off big raises or bets on the river in 1/2 is a serious problem for most players. Why would you suggest that I do so?
Sure. Bet good top pair or better for value until they make big raises.

No joke, that's really 90%. The other 10% is not getting frustrated if you run AA into better 3 times in a row. It happens, it's just a form of variance, it doesn't change the next 10 times when your overpair will get paid off.

There will be times you can bet three streets with one good pair and times it's only worth two, and that will depend on reads. But think of it as a range problem.

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AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
The average winning hand in NL is 2 pair, not one pair.
That's a bit deceptive since people often forget about two pair hands with a pair on the board. If AA makes two pair it counterfeits every natural two pair.

But you should be thinking about ranges for each hand. Median winning hands aren't very useful here. I've heard that old saw for a decade but I couldn't tell you, is that 9 hands all-in preflop? LHE? NLHE? Maybe you know. Obviously it changes a lot if you include 92o two pair UTG if it can't even make it to the flop in the real world.

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AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
The average winning hand in NL is 2 pair, not one pair.
Never heard this one before. It's a meaningless claim. How many players are we talking about? Do they all get to the river? Does there have to be a showdown? Etc etc.

Also as AKQJ10 noted, the probability of the board pairing is upwards of 60%, at which point anyone with a pair has at least two pair.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Hand is good if you folded. Turn is a good spot to check. If the board was like 822-4 two tone, then all the comments about missing value are deserved.
Exactly, although with this read I think even the turn check is somewhat debatable. (No brainer fold against typical players since you're rarely good. Against a smaller river bet you should probably call the bluff you were seeking to induce.)

There are players checking back AA for "pot control" on 8d2d2s4s. The other person might have a deuce. Why, they might even be slowplaying 8s full.

It's the scared mentality coming through the posts that I'm challenging. It's fine to say in this hand you got a bottom 10% board and are giving up. What about the other 90% of boards?
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
It's the scared mentality coming through the posts that I'm challenging. It's fine to say in this hand you got a bottom 10% board and are giving up. What about the other 90% of boards?
Agree
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 06:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
That's a bit deceptive since people often forget about two pair hands with a pair on the board. If AA makes two pair it counterfeits every natural two pair.

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Ah, that is an excellent point and no I did not think of that. That does put things in a different light.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Never heard this one before. It's a meaningless claim. How many players are we talking about? Do they all get to the river? Does there have to be a showdown? Etc etc.

Also as AKQJ10 noted, the probability of the board pairing is upwards of 60%, at which point anyone with a pair has at least two pair.
After I posted that, I thought to myself, does that really apply when you've thinned the field and only two people are playing? In this hand in particular it really changes things.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote
06-24-2018 , 06:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
Exactly, although with this read I think even the turn check is somewhat debatable. (No brainer fold against typical players since you're rarely good. Against a smaller river bet you should probably call the bluff you were seeking to induce.)

There are players checking back AA for "pot control" on 8d2d2s4s. The other person might have a deuce. Why, they might even be slowplaying 8s full.

It's the scared mentality coming through the posts that I'm challenging. It's fine to say in this hand you got a bottom 10% board and are giving up. What about the other 90% of boards?
I would not put somebody on a two or slowplaying 8s in that situation. The biggest problems I have with overpairs are flops when I don't have a diamond for example. I always continuation bet over half pot but on the next street, after they call, i do lose heart. Similarly, if I 3! pre and the flop has a jack I do not put them on JJ but if it's 10 J Q or K 10 I do think about what they would have reraised me with. Lots of times in my games I know the player at my casino so it's not an issue. Most of the guys who are regs at my casino do not call 3! preflop. If they do it's with 8s or better. In this hand I was "at sea" as I was running bad on Thursday and I also did not know any of the players at this Michigan casino. I thank you for your feedback. It's been helpful.
AA vs. Big River Bet Quote

      
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