I downloaded Flopzilla to see if I could figure this out. My first time using the tool - so apologize in advance if I messed it up. I first entered in about a top 20% holdings for opponents and looked up chances of flopping set or 2p (for single opponent). It's about 3.7%. The number goes up as you broaden opponents ranges (less PP's in the mix). It goes down more if you takeaway JJ from their range - assuming a 3 bet. So 3.7% * 6 opponents = 22.2% (or 78% that you are ahead). Obviously it's really dependent on range assumptions. And I don't know what affect multiple players would have on the odds (card blocking etc...)

I tossed in that possibility just for the sake of considering the boundary case. And the point is, if you did that - you wouldn't be focused on being called by worse of folding better... you'd be simply looking at express odds (betting $387 to win $387 + 91)... you need about 81% (and as discussed above you have close to that).... as I mentioned - if you want to go for a c/r (assuming that it's likely to get a bet from less than a set) - you'd easily get pot odds for a RAI.

We have no where near 81%. First of all SB and BB ranges are 50%+ if not 100%. They're calling because "pot odds". Even if this is the worlds tightest 1/2 table and 5 opponents manage to get top 20% hands that aren't JJ+/AK and you miraculously have that near 80% equity on this flop if you shove and are called you've eliminated all of the worse hands and have near 0 equity.

OP is worried with AA because he's UTG and everyone and his mother are yet to act. It would be pretty bad for anyone with a J or a set to check this flop in MP or LP. Besides, Im not advocating checking AA so much because Im worried about being behind....I want to do it so the field is narrowed before I make a decision which is most likely going to be check raise all in or fold. That's completely different than what I would do if I was in MP or LP with KJs

I had assumed 75 - 80%. I think that's quite reasonable. And your point that BB and SB are wider than 'normal' actually decreases the chance that they are ahead now (since they'll have less PP's in their range). It surprised me a bit at first in Flopzilla when the chance of a villain being ahead decreased with broader range - but it does make sense.

And my point wasn't to suggest a shove... it was to examine that possibility as an extreme end of possible solutions. But if I had to defend that possibility - I wouldn't really care about eliminating worse hands... it would be a pure play to take down the pot. As it happens - hero's stack is just a bit too big for this play to be EV+. But if his stack was $200 vs $400 - it's an easy shove, IMO.

Shove any flop because you most likely have the best hand and you're OOP. Wouldn't you rather win 90 bucks than let someone catch up on you? And if any draws call you're getting +EV so this is a profitable play in the long run.

With 6 other people in the hand someone is very likely to catch up on the river or turn.

With that being said I don't think raising to 13 is enough at 1/2 OOP. You obviously don't want more than 2 callers IMO.

How long have you been at the table for? What is the proper amount people have raised in the past to get 2-3 callers?

yep.
it also surely is +ev to openshove pre. it also makes the hand easier to play, you find out where you at, and would also prevent you from thinking about sizing, thus avoiding mistakes etc

It's probably not quite +EV - we're a bit too deep. We need 81% and (according to my estimates above) we're in the 70 - 80% range. And it's unquestionably a very high variance approach. As noted above - with a stack of 200 - this is probably the optimal play.

edit... sorry - missed the 'pre' and the presumed sarcasm. lol.

You don't bet $45 because it's a fine bet for a draw to call. Like other said, bet 2/3s to 4/5s.

grunch: $80 on the flop.
Call a shove from anyone with less than $200.

Get a lol live read on anyone who shoves for $300+ and normally fold.

Would AJ KJ QJ call 80? Needs to be smaller. You're forcing them to play correctly and probably making them fold betting that big. 60 is a better size imo

Does that mean you are willing to get it all-in against even the biggest stacks?
If we limp, BB bets 60, we check raise to 150, and BB pushes for 400, what is your plan then? Sure seems like we are behind in that scenario. But we have already committed a whole lot of chips and are now getting over 2-1 odds on the final call. Since BB is new to the table, we have no idea if he is capable is making this play with just a draw.

I think, if we are going for a check-raise, we are going all the way.

--cm

5 hours
$10-$12

--cm

Relevant Players:
SB: $75 = Tight-Passive
BB: $400 = Unknown
Hero: $400 = should be viewed as TAG
UTG+1: $300 = LAG - makes terribly loose calls and raises without best hand
MP: $150 = TAG
CO: $170 = TAG
BUT: $300 = Tight-Passive

$1-$2 NL
Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $13
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, BUT calls, SB calls, BB calls
Pot = $91

Flop: J 9 4

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $75 ...

I've spent a lot of time since this hand trying to determine if this bet was too high. It seems that the opinions are mixed.

With so many opponents, it's difficult, but important to plan ahead for pushes.
I will call anyone under $200.
I will happily call LAG UTG+1 for $300
If Tight-Passive Button pushes for $300, I know I am behind.
If unknown BB pushes (or even raises for less), I have no idea what to do.

-cm

Limp reraise is the preflop plan

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I don't understand why so many people are advocating a check on this flop. If you check here and it does end up checking around there is very few cards you want to see on the turn. JJ would likely 3-bet pre so that isn't a concern. So basically if you bet here the only better hands you need to worry about are 99,44, and J9. With so many people in the pot odds are pretty good someone flopped a pair. I'd throw in a 60-70 dollar bet to help narrow the field, get value from Jx or possibly 9x hands, and to give some of the players something to shove over. Depending on who shoves I'd snap it off.

Pretty sure I am about the only one who would check the flop. Heres what I love about poker. You think most people would 3 bet with JJ (not saying I agree or disagree), but in this thread below we have people saying its common to limp on the button with JJ after multiple other limpers

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...04/index2.html

Fair point. I guess something I'll have to consider when analyzing hands here is more variety from what I'm used to playing against.

I think there were a lot of reasonable options on the table. I don't think c-betting was bad at all. I think if you had gone half-pot or less - then you'd have to think harder about what to do with a raise. But with a big bet like this (proportionately big - and, importantly to 1/2 players, absolutely big) - you need to give a raise a ton of respect. It's basically pot committing. So, absent a read (like BB) or a short stack... as played, I'm folding to any raise. If some brave soul with a naked FD or str8 draw raised - congratulations.

This is very much a read-dependent situation. If the tight players are actually tight and respect an UTG raise, their range is often big aces and pocket pairs. That probably means you are in trouble if they want to play for stacks.

I probably either check or bet 50, based on how I expect the betting to go if I check. I've played against lineups where I have check-folded the flop to a single bet from a regular I know well enough to know I am always behind if they bet in a multi-way pot. I only bet 50 because I am a good hand-reader with a tight image, so I don't need to bet more. If you have a loose image, you should bet more and be more prepared to call a shove. If you doubt your hand-reading abilities, you should bet more to define your hand to your opponents so that their reaction is easier to interpret.

Anyone who thinks this flop is getting checked through needs a psychiatrist. Seriously. It will NEVER happen.

^ Absolutely horrible. If you bet, you ARE getting raised. Period. 100%. Book it. The times you DON'T get raised, you may be drawing dead.

So you bet, someone raises... and you fold. You need help. If you can crawl, crawl for help.

^ We ALWAYS have a decision to make. The object is to make excellent ones and help our opponents make poor ones. Leading out doesn't get us closer to that. It really doesn't. It just gets us closer to commitment.

Leading out in this spot is commendable; it just doesn't work.

lots of absolutes in your post.
won´t make it any better unfortunately tho

The majority of regs in my usual games would check KJ in late position if it gets checked to them. Almost all of them will check a draw OTB.

There's four behind. It's very unlikely. And in the unlikely event it does, we get to see the other two act on the turn. It's just absolutely amazing that so many people commenting would turn down what is almost certainly valuable information before committing their stack in this spot.

Thanks for that gem. That's even better than "Call the short stacks because they're short stacks."

alright then...
I guess I need a psychiatrist bc this will get checked through a non zero % of time. just bc you say it won´t doesn´t make it correct.

if we bet, we are NOT going to get raised 100% of the time. just bc you it will happen 100% of the time doesn´t make it correct.

your third point, yeah, ofc we always have a decision to make. that´s about as trivial as it gets, and it´s, I believe, the same triviality you are mocking me for, so, to quote you, "thanks for that gem."

ofc, just bc I say those things are incorrect won´t make my statement correct either, but hey, if you want we can make a poll...

I say again, your win rate should be 20BB/hr in that game.