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AA vs. 3 Flush River Shove AA vs. 3 Flush River Shove

01-08-2014 , 02:09 AM
Hero has been playing loose. Raising a lot of hands. Spewed away by making a 3 barrel bluff against someone at the table. Then called a short stack shove on flop with a straight draw w/ ace high flush redraw (lots of dead money in the pot, had pot odds to call, but my image seems to be "gambler" right now).

Villain is a middle-aged Asian man, he plays decent, definitely not a moron and spewy fish. He talks a lot and has bet and showed the table the goods most times. One hand he claims to have folded QQ against a 4-bet shove with two people all-in preflop. He thought about it for awhile so I don't think he was lying. Likes to limp and sees a lot of flops. I have no read in terms of whether he is tricky or not, or whether he is possible of floating multiple streets.

Effective Stacks $202

Hero (UTG) with AA - opens for $12
Villain (OTB) calls $12

His range should be pretty wide given that its folded to him and he has position. Let's say A2s+, ATo+, KJ+, JT+, 22+, 76s+, excluding maybe QQ+, AQs+, AKo because he'd probably 3-bet those.

($23) Flop is Q37ss

Hero bets $20. Villain calls $20

Villain's Range: 33, 77, 76s+, Axs, KJs, JTs, AQo, QTo, QJo, KQo, 88-JJ, random air

($63) Turn is 10c

Hero bets $45. Villain calls $45

Villain's Range: KJo, KQ, QJ, Axs, KJs (probably would've jammed this instead of flatting though), possibly TT+, random air?

Turn just made the board a little more dangerous, and the turn is mainly when most villains start stop slow playing monsters and put in the c/r, so sets are unlikely to be in his range anymore. His 7s and small over pairs would have folded at this point. His QTo just turned two pair and I feel like he would c/r that also.

($153) River is 9s

Hero bets $50. (Was this a terrible river bet? Thinking back I have no idea what this would get value from) Villain thinks a bit and shoves for $125

All Qs gone from his range, I don't think TT would jam here either.

Villain's Range: KJo, Axs, KJs, and possibly JJ turning his hand into a bluff, or random air

16 combos of KJ
?? combos of Axs
4 combos of JJ
?? combos of Air

Pot is ($328). Hero tanks, hates himself for betting river. Villain lets out a little laugh and chokes and Hero says what? and he says "I need to drink my beer".

Action to hero? Should I just puke call here since I have such good odds? What do you think of my flop & turn bet sizing?
AA vs. 3 Flush River Shove Quote
01-08-2014 , 03:22 AM
River raise is usually a polarizing bet at low stakes. Most players aren't even raising KJo and many aren't raising non nut flushes. We have no reads on this Vs river play though.

If we held the As it would probably be just enough for me to weight his bluffs a little heavier.

Against weak tight unknowns or stations, esp. with your image I probably bet/fold $70 OTR. They are looking you up with AQ, KQ etc. and only coming over the top with the flush and often the Nut Flush. Since we don't have reads on villains tricky ness or his tendencies when checked to it's hard to say whether check call to give him a chance to bluff is the better play.

Also since the straight came in we can't even put busted straight representing the flush in his range.

There are very few players at low stakes that will turn a hand with showdown value like AQ or KQ etc. into a bluff here to get us off KK or AA.

We are getting like 2-1/2:1 or so on a call so it comes down to "is this guy calling an UTG raise then floating flop and turn to bluff raise the river when the straight and flush come in 1 out of 3 ish times?"

Against a random unknown this is a fold. When I'm off my A game I forget to fold here though because "I haz aces".
AA vs. 3 Flush River Shove Quote

      
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