1/2 live, 10 player

mp $200
co (hero = A A) $500

Table is limp happy.


preflop:
utg/mp/hj limps, hero raises to $15, sb folds, bb calls, utg folds, mp/hj calls

my image: TAG
in the 3hrs I've been at the table, I haven't shown down anything out of line.

flop ($60): 6 8 9
bb/mp/hj checks, hero bets $40, bb folds, mp pushes, hj folds, Hero?

MP is Taggish. there is a $500 high hand promo and he'll play any 2 suited cards that will make a straight flush. (I play that way too due to this promo.)

he also seems to know what he's doing. He has been caught bluffing once.


hands I put him on:
-77 (semi bluff)
-A 7 (combo draw)
-57 or 710 not hearts for a made straight and trying to push out the draws
-a set
-complete bluff. he knows I'm tight and not raising with 57 or 7T.


what I don't put him on is a straight flush draw (57,78,7T ) because he's chasing the high hand.
he'll just check/call and hope for the straight flush card on turn or river.

so Im ahead of 77 and a complete bluff, slightly ahead of A 7 and way behind the rest.


in a slightly ahead/way behind scenario vs a tight player, I usually fold.
What would you do? Why?

Don't do that

As for the hand, you seem to have a good idea of what you think his range is, so just stove it. I don't know why you are excluded nut flush draws and Txhh hands from his range though...

looks close. Assess whether you think he's really pushing hands like 77, Axhh, or JT or spazzing with air. Big chunks of the player pool, esp TAGS, will just flat these hands, and just b/c he was caught bluffing doesn't mean he'll check/shove with nothing.

You aren't winning or losing much here. Flip a coin?

hm.. didn't think of Axhh, Txhh, or JT.
i just thought of hands i would push with in that situation since we're both TAGs.

anyway, the point is the same.
I'm slightly ahead of a draw or way behind.

call $145 to win $285?
2:1

1) Your effective stack isn't huge compared to the pot.
2) Your equity is awful if you're behind, i.e. you're not drawing.

Because it's not a drawing type situation and the pot odds are reasonable, I don't like to do a range analysis because I believe it's a lot of work for just a little extra benefit. Instead, I stick to personality analysis: is he a nit, does he like to gamble, does he like to bluff and Hollywood?

Agree the equity is awful if behind but I recommend doing range analysis all the time away from the table for the extra benefit. The extra benefit is what separates winning players from losing players in my opinion.

I would call, your read is that the player is bluffy and there are enough hand ranges you're ahead of and this is the top part of your range. Your stack size doesn't make you super deep like 5-10 buyins where villain has you covered that it cripples you if you lose the hand even if it end ups becoming a flip or if villain has you crushed.

Agreed.

But if he's playing solid, his CRAI range has tons of 2pr and sets, so no need for much math.

"When a nit wants to balance his range, he adds the second nuts."

Call.

Why would V shove here? If he had a big hand, he would lead or check call or check raise a smaller amount that you would call. Most Vs are not check shoving trying to trick you into calling. He wants a fold.

There are a lot of hands in his range you beat: all draws, all one pair hands, including over pairs like TT, JJ, QQ. If he has a hand like 87s or A8hh, put on your running shoes and hope to win the race.
If he has two pair, you have outs.
He might play a set this way but most players look to get paid with a set. You bet flop, everyone else folds, so HU, I doubt he feels he has to blow you off your hand bc of the draws. If he has a read that you'll always pay off an over pair, then maybe shoving a set makes sense, but from initial description, it doesn't seem you have a deep enough history with him for him to know that.

Two other things: 1) it's like, $145 to call. Opened for $15, four players to the flop, bet $40, he jams. So pot is $285 and you have to call $145. Immediate pot odds aren't amazing but 2 to 1 isn't terrible, esp if you're ahead or facing a hand like a pair with a draw. If it was $350, I'd be looking for reasons to fold but $145, he's going to have to show me the winner. 2) we have AA. He could be trying to push you off AK or JJ. He's TAG, so he's unlikely to be on a pure bluff, but that doesn't mean he's not making a move with A8hh or some other combo hand that has equity but rates to be behind on the flop. I know it's projecting, but if I had 87 in this spot, check shove would be a tasty option. If I had 87hh, even more so (not consisting the HH jackpot). If I had KQhh, I'd likely check shove, too, esp given these stack sizes.

I think that against a range a good TAG might call pre and with which a good TAG might get aggressive post flop, it's a call.

I was thinking about this and yeah, OK, but really? How many people have you played against that would actually do this? It's a horribly stupid play, turning the hand into a bluff, in this particular situation.

My own experience is that TPTK is ahead over 50% of the time in this situation. You're getting 2:1 and you have better than TP. I'd call without too much hesitation and reload if beat.

Pretty easy call, IMO.

And please don't play hands trying to hit the $500 high hand promo.

If this is true, then there must be a lot of players who do this quite often when they're behind to TPTK. I guess that's a logically sound deduction.

So they must be getting a lot of folds on these slick boards. It's a significant overbet of the pot, moving 185 into a pot of 100. It almost doesn't make sense that it's both an easy call for an overpair and a popular play.

Of the people who are doing this without 99 beat, what are they doing with the part of their range that beats 99?

He is in MP, so these hands are less likely, but when thinking range, they're not non-zero. If he was a blind, I'd consider that much more likely to be part of the range bc some players are loath to reraise TT, JJ, QQ from the blinds. Maybe they'd three bet QQ but not JJ, looking for a safe flop, which this appears to be for JJ vs a late position raise.

MP is less likely to limp hands like this, but I'd not discount them completely depending on the V.

I don't think that most Vs would consider this a bluff with JJ or TT. They'd think they are betting the best hand, and stopping H from drawing to over cards.

why not?
whats wrong w/limping 59suited for $2 for a chance to win $500?

Calling.

Calculate the odds of hitting a straight flush with 95s and get back to us. Hint: You're not 1:250 to hit.

1:250 = .4%
hm.. the probability of a straight flush by the river is 0.00027851 = .03% altho I don't think it matters if it's 56s or 59s?