Game is 1/2 $300 max. Hero has been at the table for a few hours at this point. Decent table with a few spots.

V in this hand is a MAWG, sunglasses and seemingly tries to play well but misses the mark a decent amount. Have heard him comment to other players using phrases like "well you had decent equity" or "you can't call there, you don't have enough $ behind" and stuff like that. He is in the BB this hand and has $270 (Hero covers).

OTTH:

One limp to Hero in the HJ who raises to $15 with AA. Folded to V in BB who flats as does the limper.

Flop ($41 after max rake)

Q64

Checked to Hero who bets $30. V calls quickly with no thought and limper folds.

Turn ($101)

Q648

So 75 got there, but otherwise looks like a relatively good turn card. V checks and Hero bets $70. V calls again with no hesitation. At this point, I put V squarely on a draw or a top pair type of hand.

River ($241)

Q6489

V thinks for 5 seconds and shoves for $155. So hero needs to call $155 to win a pot of $551 (3.5-1, or ~ 28% equity).

Is this a snap call or is anyone worried?

Thanks.

meh.... ugly spot...

I think I call here... Maybe he shows up Q9 or 99 sometimes, but I think he has some missed flush draws and he can over values some KQ, QJ also to make the call worth...

I dont think folding is a mistake without much info on Vilain

Yeah, I'm def gonna be worried, described V's don't usually do this unless they have two pair plus but the bet is only slightly over half pot which is the only good thing about it.

Villain is fairly polarized on the river here. Not a lot of draws came in for him so I feel he either had you on the flop or is bluffing with a busted heart draw. Against the general population of MAWG you are probably better than 28% on the river, but there are many individuals that simply don't have this move in them.

If I had to guess, he had a set of 6's or 4's a lot, but you still have to call.

Calling but not thrilled about it. His quick actions on the prior streets also seem to make it less likely he flopped a set, as most Vs would take some time to at least consider raising with draws out there. Also not sure this guy is value shoving 2 pair. Could see something like T7hh, but just not enough beats you to lay this down imo.

if we were gonna fold any AA, we should fold ones that have the A since we block a bunch of missed flush draws. Without the A I think this is a must call.

Opponent seems to know something about equity calcs, so he may (or not) realize there is little fold equity in shoving.

Hand looks like a pair/FD combo that improved on turn or river. Those are only a couple of combos. Is he spazzing with a hand like 77 or a missed FD?

Hero line has been strong, though most players don’t go for 3 streets, so opponent may not want to risk a check back. Pretty close, but I’d lean fold.

Grunch

if I think there’s a chance villain perceives you playing your draw aggressively and plays his TP value hands snuggly until the river bricks then I call. Did you see any of this tendency from villain?
I think his value range is 2 pair and the JhTh straight way more than 57
You’re used to playing higher stakes so I dunno if this plays into your thinking. In general, read less I haven’t seen a bluff like this in LL stakes.


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Unless Ive personally seen villain shove with missed FDs (which you didnt mention)...its a very annoying but easy fold for me.

Call. This player should be able to value bet worse and bluff, for this price seems automatic.

When you say V missed the mark, were any of those failed bluffs? How loose is V's pre-flop range? V doesn't need many bluffs in his range for this to be +EV. I do think V could show us Q8, 88, Q9hh, T7hh. Can you correlate the timing tells to other hands? He has a lot more missed draws, AQ, Qx in his range but it comes down to if you think he would bluff shove river or not. Most V's don't have this move but for this price it's tough to get away from. Here's where I start talking to V before I make a read. With a few hours of play, we should know a little about his calling range pre, if we can eliminate Q8 and or Q9, I call. Otherwise I probably pat the felt twice and toss them. Could go either way with live reads tho at this price. You find some good spots.

After the turn bet, you say you "put V squarely on a draw or a top pair type of hand".

What hands got there on the river? Almost all draws bricked (except 8h9h or Jh10h), and almost every top pair hand is still just top pair (the exception maybe being Q9s). The river was an absolute brick.

After the villain calls your turn bet, your read was he was on a draw or top pair. You had a plan. Stay the course.

As I worked the hand backward from preflop, the bolded stuck in my head. His calls were so quick, that there was never a second thought about raising anywhere. So I did dismiss flopped sets for the most part.

As far as him value shoving two pair, I think that is likely. The real Q is what two pair can he have where his actions were so quick on flop and turn? Unless he holds say 98 where he flopped a FD, turned equity with an 8 and rivered two pair, I had trouble seeing it TBH.

Anyone disagree with this thought process?

I did not see this tendency, but it is an interesting point and one that I did not consider at the time. Basically, what would V put ME on given my relatively big sizing on flop and turn. I would guess KQ/AQ/QQ/KK/AA and AK or AJ. Potentially TT/JJ as I would probably fire two barrels with both of those hands as well on this board texture. So given the above, what would V shove with? I think his shove is polarized here most of the time to missed FD's or value, not a ton in between.

One missed bluff but mostly overplayed top pair hands and calls with middle pairs that weren't good. He seemed semi-loose pre, but not a maniac at all. And I had not seen him play that many draws so the timing thing was more about him not having a huge value hand. I dont think he calls with Q8o or Q9o, but maybe suited.

I'm calling here

lose to 89 hearts
ahead of AQ KQ QJ and missed draw bluffs

quick calls feel more like Q or draw than sets

Your bets are rather big, especially on the turn. If villain picked up on this, he is far less likely to bluff missed draws imo. Furthermore, I feel like check/calling twice with a draw and then donkbetting when you miss is the ultimate fish move, does this guy seem like someone who would even do this?

Be that as it may, I still think the price might be slightly to good to fold, so I probably sigh call (against players whose game I don't necessarily respect) and expect to lose to JThh, 98hh and 99 a lot here.

Oh, by the way, you're not getting 3.5:1. You're getting 2.5:1. The percentage was correct this time, though.

Right. I meant I had to be good 1 out of 3.5x. For some reason I suck at writing odds.

Anyway, i went with my gut that the timing of his calls was such that the only two pair hand he could really have was 98 and I called.

V tables KQo and MHIG.

Thanks for the input.

Lots of good analysis in this thread, but I think it is important to show that when we have a relatively unknown villain, there will be some small percentage of the time that they will make a move that makes little to no sense.

Calling two streets with top pair good kicker and then turning the hand into a bluff on the river doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If we are considering calling or folding while needing 28% equity in the pot, we shouldn't always assume that the villain only has reasonable bluffs only in his range. Sometimes they are just bad and you should error on the side of calling for small amounts.

Some villains actually take this line thinking they are betting for value. They are so sure hero was FOS that this is the way they play the last street. It’s up to hero to include this though process in ranging villain properly.
This was a great call for hero but the board run out sucked big time for hero’s one pair to hold. Definitely a thought provoking hand that would have taken me to the tank to sift through the combos of hands that beat us vs ones we beat and compare it to the pot odds


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Ime unless you have a really good read, you should fold almost every one pair hand vs river donk lead jams or big river donk leads. It would improve your winrate by a bit, esp since by the river the pot tends to be huge

I mean, a common recurring theme/instinct in the forums here having the nuts or near nuts on the river OOP is to donk lead so.

+1

Hero won this time but as I always say, keep track of every time this situation comes up and see where you are after you make 25 or so of these same type river jam calls.

Grunch

I concur with your read - draw or top pair. By the river he's missed the FD, could have the straight with 75s from the turn or T7hh JThh on river and he could have backed into 2-pair with Q9s.

Small possibility he could have been flatting with 99 thinking you're bluffing AK or the FD and he's just binked a set on the river. Alternatively he could have been trapping top set from the flop but I guess he usually 3bets that pre.

I make that 11 combos you're afraid of (excluding unlikely QQ set).

Can he bluff missed hearts here? It's possible and we don't block any so he's got 20 or so of those he can potentially shove with.

He could have AQ/KQ/QJs/QTs and decide since the flush missed he's happy putting the rest in himself because he doesn't realise you won't call with most of the hands he beats. That's 24 combos.

Since he has few realistic value combos that beat you, lots of possible value combos you beat and a wide variety of bluff combos to choose from I think I'd call getting these favourable odds.

Agree with those saying villains super-rapid calls count against him having 2-pair+ on flop or turn.

For some reason I didn't see 98hh for 1 combo extra river 2-pair but it makes no difference, I still call.

I like IamAllInNow's idea of using the Ah in our hand to help decide on river decision. Same goes for our AQ I guess.

Recondite7 post #20 is obviously particularly pertinent given the results but I think it's also important generally. I think villains mistakenly value betting is a more common error at low stakes than villains' bluffing too much (opposite is their main problem). Looking out for this type of error in shown down hands is going to be quite profitable.

I also think Mikestarr and Minatorr are likely not wrong about their population reads. A lot of the time hero loses here against the average player - just not nearly so often not against this specific villain. Simply reiterates importance of identifying these timing tells and taking note of our opponents' value betting errors.