Ya, agreed, this is most of the time 9x +.

No no no!!! One can't reasonably expect to fold out AA or AK at this level. Also, why can't hero have 9x in his range? (rhetorical question. he can have 9x in his range here)

Pot is $545 and $275 to call, or almost exactly 2:1. So 33% pot equity.

If he has Kx flush draw, assuming the probability of only K7s+, we are looking at only 5 combos: K7, K8, KT, KJ, KQ.

Against these 5 combos, we have 77.3% equity.

On the other hand, if we are wrong, there are literally crap load of 9x in his range.

97s: 2 combos
98: 8 combos
T9: 8 combos
J9: 8 combos
Q9: 8 combos
A9: 2 combos

Total 36 combos.

Against these combos, we have 4.55% equity.

So we're looking at .773(.12) + .0455(.88) = .1328 or 13% equity, making this a horrible horrible call.

Ya it's a horrible call regardless. Intuitively this is a play with 9x the vast majority of the time. Thank you for showing the combination math to prove it, need to work on that part.

V has spazzed w an overpair on a paired board (into 6 ppl no less) before and our image is terrible so I'm probably calling here. This is probably bad reasoning but we are 80bb deep and getting trounced by late street bets, I'm taking a stand here. Had I not specifically seen V's big raise w 99 on a 633 flop, I'd get away from this fairly easily.

Wouldn't a nit V who is afraid to play post-flop be inclined to raise trips on this flop since there is a flush draw out there? I can see V flatting just 33 here; but I would assume that V would raise most of these combos on the flop so we might rule some of these out. I mean V might realize we do have a fair amount of flush draw combos in our range such as AK, AQ,AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ which we would hypothetically make the same bet with so wouldn't he want to charge us if we do have a flush draw. Also, he might realize a on the turn will kill his action if hero had TT+ so he would be more apt to fast playing 9x OTF.

Although you may be right, but there are still too few hands in villain's range for a call to make sense.

Dickie,

how do you put so many 9x in his range? If he's a mostly nitty villain, is he really calling pre with all of those?

and if he's calling pre with all of those, surely he's also calling pre with AK, KQ, KJ and K10

and if he's making a big bet into 6 people with 99 on a 663 board then he has to be capable of shoving with a big, non suited king here too doesn't he?

Yes, according to OP's read:

Villain is nitty and sees a lot of flop.

Only way to accomplish both is to call a wide range pre-flop and play fit-or-fold post.

Ya, but two reasons to eliminate such range after he calls flop:

1. It's a paired board with flush draw, and hero has A, which eliminates villain floating with backdoor flush draw. Most players, especially the fit-or-fold type, isn't going to float on a paired board with those hands.

2. He's not going to shove turn with just Kx, because fit-or-fold players don't understand relative hand strength and range, hence they're fit-or-fold, and he can't eliminate 9x from hero's range.

Not enough details. It could have been a limped pot and he raised someone's bet.

Plus it could simply be a one-off, or he had history of the person he was raising, or whatever reason...I wouldn't put too much weight in one HH, especially when everything else points to the other direction.

Ahhh I've tried to post in here but apparently nothing has shown up


Results:

However, I don't really feel like the results are all that important here. We already knew that some 9x's were in his range, it's just a matter of what else could be in his range (as everyone has been debating).

Richard Parker, I was trying to Stove this hand as well, and the results from your ranges are very interesting (13% vs 30% equity). At the same time, I feel like there are almost too many unknown variables to rely very heavily on combinatorics here. It's unlikely, but what if he flats with Ak on the flop occasionally and spazzes on the turn? That changes things really quickly... I also don't think we can count his full range of 9x's here because of the likeliness that those raise the flop w/ the third player left to act. Ultimately though, since there are so many unknowns and we KNOW that villain has a very strong range, I definitely like your arguments behind folding.

My image of course throws everything off here though (assuming that villain is even adjusting his play based on my image). I think that's why this hand has received so many arguments for both sides and IMO neither a fold nor shove is "horrible" when everything is considered. Honestly, I would probably need a better read and more info on villain's tendencies to feel more confident about this one, but I'm loving all of the responses that this has gotten!

I think RP has demonstrated pretty clearly that a call actually is pretty bad. As long as hr can be classified as basically fit or fold post flop then the turn was played badly at both decision points.

No a call is actually pretty horrible. I'm not sure what thread you were reading to determine otherwise, but you can always keep doing this and listen to your wallet.
You tried to valuebet a nit thin and he responded by shoving it in your face. Good luck calling down in this spot consistently.