Hi all,

1/3. Hero has been at table for an hour and just topped off. Playing $400. Hero raises red AA UTG to $15 and V (30 y/o Ethiopian) calls UTG+1. Pot $30.

Flop: Kc-5c-6s. Hero bets $20. V calls. Pot $80.

Turn: 3d. Hero checks for some pot control and figuring a K wouldn’t call three streets. V bets $60. Hero puts V on good king and calls. Pot $200.

River: 7d. Hero bets $100 partially as blocker and thin value against a K. V min-raises to $200. Hero? I guess V somehow has a four here...?

Did I misplay this hand, and if so, on what streets? Was a check call better on the river, or even a check fold depending on sizing? Am I priced in on a river call?

Thanks,
DT

What price are you getting on the river? How often do you need to be good at this price? What range do you put villain on? What’s your equity vs this range?

$100 to win $500 so 5:1. I need to be good 20% of the time. Like I said, I initially put him on a good king. I’m not sure if I am good by the river to be honest. Don’t have flopzilla handy at the moment. I generally don’t like using equity calculations in river raise spots though because isn’t one of the tenets of low stakes that river raises are nearly always nutted?

5:1 means you need 16% equity.

“**** the tenets, do the math” is my motto.

I guess it’s not 5:1 then but 4:1.

Without a read on villain, betting turn seems best to me. Since you check-called turn, you probably should just check-call river, depending on size.

No. You were right. You need to call 100 to win 500. 5:1. That means you need 16% equity to breakeven. 1/6

There’s some weird reasoning/thought process going on here in this hand.

1. Why do you want to pot control?

2. Why don’t you think you’d get 3 streets of value from K?

3. Why do you call after putting V on a good K?

4. Why do you want to make a blocking bet vs a good K?

This is simple.

Put as much money in the pot preflop as possible.

Put a proportional amount in on the flop.

Do the same on the turn.

On, the river bet as much as possible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

See below your questions in quoted text.

I feel there is nothing to pot control about on this board.
Readless I would assume V to be calling with all K, clubs and top range of their middle pairs(setminers and pocket pairs). And OTR, the raise is really weak, I'm calling it. The minraise very likely is from KX combos due to hero's weird betting lines which V perceives as weak, and thus am minraising for value while keeping hero's calling range wide. If I'm pot controlling I'm probably going to pot control OTF with TP and draws, check raising overpairs and check folding setminers. I'll probably treat QQ/JJ as setminers as well since we are OOP. keeping it simple is best.

Your pot sizing on all streets is off.

What's the rake structure here? If it's 10% up to $6, which is what I see in most of my games, you would be looking at $31 pre-flop, $67 on the flop, $187 on the turn, and on the river, you bet $100, he raises to $200, so you're calling $100 to win $487.

As others have mentioned, there's no way that I fold this river, but I also think that you should have bet more on the flop and should have led the turn. Check/calling the river is better imo than check/calling the turn and leading the river.

If you're much better than your opponents, then topping off to the maximum BI will likely be beneficial.

Thanks to getting it HU (expected?) the SPR is a very manageable 13. So we have lots of options. We could just bet/fold for 3 streets. Or we could check a street and see what happens. Reads on opponent would likely set the path for me; the more chasey / non-bluffy / ABC he is, the more I just bet/fold x 3. The more trickier / bluffier / aware he is, the more I might start checking.

I'm fine with our bet flop / check turn line. Weak hands won't always call 3 bets so going for 2 streets or inducing them to valuetown themselves / bluff is fine.

I would much rather check/call the river than anything else (ETA: especially given our turn check/call, which, unlike others, I'm fine with), although it is opponent dependent. Most typical ABC MUBSy opponents check back TP even on dry runouts let alone this 4-to-a-straight one (where even strong hands such as sets could be checked back), so against them we could perhaps check/fold. Against bluffier players who could be calling the flop / betting the turn with a flush draw, this is a great bluff catcher card as they'll attempt to rep the straight. Not really a fan of the blocking bet here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think this is the thought process of a solid thinking player, but I don't think we can assign this to V. You almost never see typical V raise 1p hands OTR.

Why are we leading river? You can't check turn b/c its only a 2 street hand but then lead river to get a thin 3rd street from Kx.

I think you misplayed it turn and river, but AP, its probably a sigh call and if V shows AK, KQ then its good information going forward to profile V.

FWIW, in almost all HU situations where there is a busted flush draw and a runner-runner 4-to-a-straight, I think in general we should almost always be calling a bet on the river. We feel stupid the times we run into the obvious straight, but quite a lot of villains chasing a flush will realize this is a decent bluff opportunity so we'll come out ahead in the long run.

GimoG

If you are going to c/c the turn and then lead the river, just c/r the turn. A strong K is likely to pay this line more often then the c/c turn, donk river line, imo.

Without a read on how loose villain is, here are some hands that got there with and without a four.

Ac4c, 6c4c, 4c3c

9c8c, 7c6c

Another possibility is that he is bluffing with a missed club draw.

+1 to this being a very villain dependent spot and that leading or c/r the turn makes everything a lot simpler here. V raise to me is one of two things and that’s he either got there with his 4 (and I would add 4c4x into that range) or depending on his sophistication and your play, v could easily be putting you heavily toward a scared tt, jj, qq because of the turn check or whiffed aq/aj/atc And he can bet you off the hand with his 78c/a7c AP I sigh call.

I hate "pot control" for the most part. IMHO, you still have a clear bet for value OTT and you can always re-evaluate if V raises. Board is absurdly draw heavy so checking this turn and then calling any significant action OTR is just giving V a free-roll to get your stack.

Pot is $70 OTT...I bet $50 at least here, maybe $60. If raised, then I evaluate. If V just calls and the pot is $170 OTR with that runout, I either b/f the river or more like x/evaluate which would allow V to bluff any clubs.

AP, just fold. Min-raises OTR are sized/designed so that you WILL call and therefore one pair is good close to never here.