Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
Maybe we can expound on betting the turn some more. My in hand read was to be very careful here. He is the kind of player who could 3 bet preflop with 1010+ so I'm really not expecting him to have flatted with JJ+. That leaves 88-99 for over pair. He might have a SC with a 7 or an underpair, but honestly I wanted to keep the pot small because it just screams set mining to me. So if I bet the turn and raises me what do you do?
I agree he and I both have no 2 pairs here so my plan was to check turn for pot control and then check call river for one more bet.
Yeah sure. One thing I've noticed from some of your posts in general is that you tend to focus on the hands that beat you when the pot starts to get big and discount that V will call with worse, which can lead to mubsy/monsters-under-the-bed type thinking. I would try to reframe your thought process to consider all V's hands which could call this flop before deciding whether to bet or check.
So if I was in your shoes against an unknown V after he calls this flop, 200 BB deep, I would guess he has the following range of overpairs, gutshots, pair + straight draws, and a couple of combos of sets (assuming that he would raise some of these hands on the flop):
TT-88,66,7d7h,7d7c,5d5h,5d5c,A6s,A4s,97s+,86s+,75s+,6 5s,54s
Against this range we're 75% on the flop, which is about as good as it gets. Even if we add all combos of 64s to his range our equity only drops to 70%. After the J on the turn, we're at worst 78%.
Don't be worried about getting raised on the turn until it happens, at which point we reevalute his range. The only reason I would check the turn is if I think V is floating with any two cards and is looking to take it away on the turn. Otherwise I want to set my price and also put him to a decision with his marginal holdings - often he will call anyway getting the wrong price with his pairs + draws #impliedodds
Something that really helped me change perspective was to set aside time to play microstakes online - you get a ton of volume in at stakes where you're (hopefully) not so concerned if you make a mistake and stack off light, you start to better understand board texture, and it's a great way to realize how often players are actually FOS. Heads up is the best IMO because you're forced to play pretty much every hand and deal with very wide ranges & lots of bluffing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
I don't mind a bet on the river as I said, but I would expect that he's folding virtually all his hands. You're changing your story throughout the hand: when you check on the turn you're weak, but after you call turn and then lead river your hand looks even stronger. He's checking back or folding all his 88/99/67s etc on the river, but if you check turn, and check river, V may think he can bluff you off with his 89s that missed, so at least you win that bet when you checkraise.
My 2 cents, hope it's helpful.