Villain is white male in his forties. He's playing loose passive preflop, and on the flop very fit or fold. He hadn't gotten past my flop Cbet yet out of maybe 6 hands where we played a pot together either HU or MW.

2/5
Hero raises to 20 EP w AcAs (900)
V calls from SB (covers), BB calls as well.
Flop (60) Qs9c6s V checks, BB checks, hero bets 40,
V calls and BB folds.
Turn (140) Js V checks. Hero bets 75, V calls.
River (290) 3h V checks. Hero bets 130.

Is the river too thin?

Probably

yes and no. river is a great bet assuming that V has AQ or KQ. if you were beat, you were beat on the turn, and you have been valueowning yourself for the last two streets.

but since V checks it to us on the river, I think it is a really good bet. Seems like V would lead out on the river if he has QJ and the river bricks the fourth spade.

Usually.

Against the described V, river checkback is the only way to go.

Too thin for me. I don't know what worse calls. Maybe KsQx, KsKx, AQ. Everything thing else should fold. A hand that calls two streets with a 3-flush and straight on the board usually beats one pair. QJ+ call. KsXx fold, JT/T9 fold, probably QT fold.

I guess I'd go for it if villain over values top pair and doesn't have a c/r bluff in him. Against an unknown, I'd check for a showdown.

I xb river.

I like it. Though if V is passive enough to be check/calling turn and river with most of his flushes then it´s suicide.

You're worried about getting c/r bluffed by the described Villian (or an unknown at 2/5!)?

If we get called, we are ahead Vs. 12 combos of KQ 6 Combos of AQ and maybe even 12 combos of QT. We are beat by 9 combos of QJ, 9 combos of J9 and 3 combos of JJ. I think we can assume that the 2pair and sets would have raised otf. Imo it's thin but still a decent spot to b/f here. Like the sizing too.
Everything depends on V if he only calls down with 2pair or a set there then just check or you can turn your ha d into a bluff and bet big on turn and River.

Bunch of nits ITT. Seems like a clear value bet to me, we would've likely heard from him earlier if we were beat.

Heh. I bet 99% of low stakes players wouldn't. It's an important qualifier though, since I do see it from time to time.

I actually think this is a decent board to c/r bluff against villains who can b/f, if I had the Ks.

Your line is good. Well played.

I would tweak bet sizing a bit.

More on turn. JT became a pair + draw (and is also the Ts flush draw 25% of the time). Top pair KQ, QT, Qx also calls again and also turned plenty of drawing equity. Same with middle pair hands like A9, T9, 9x, TT. And flopped gut shots and OESDs like KJ, J8 (pair + gut shot), 87 call another bet and also frequently have a flush draw, too.

I'd go 100 on the turn.

Once I go 100 on turn, river pot is 340.

While he has some better hands and some air, I think a bet is definitely a +EV value bet again his calling range, which includes numerous combos of one pair Qx, Jx, 9x and some pocket pairs like TT. I don't think it's super thin at all, but I would size on smaller side to get as many calls as possible from his relatively weaker made hands.

So I'd bet ~150 into 340.

I don't know whether you won the hand or not... but I do believe all your bets are +EV. And I think my bet sizing is going to win quite a bit more and that your seller bets, especially on the turn, are leaving value on the table.

Well, I guess T8 and KT straights and low flushes are possible (and this loose passive villain often doesn't raise turn - the straights out of fear of flushes and lower flushes out of fear of better flushes). And that's possibly 16 + 16 + ~8 = 40 combos. QJ is another 9. Then there may be a few others (other two pair, some sets).

So yes, I will say the river is actually quite thin.

But I would still value bet.

However I might bet ~100 into 340.

Or as OP played it, ~90 into 290.

Yeah, thinking about it (I posted the above pretty quickly), contrary to what I wrote above, this is like the definition of thin. Checking back isn't horrible or anything. But I think we can eek out some value, and I'm always quite more inclined to value bet rather than check when it's close because people like to call.

Seems fine to me. If he's known to play passive with 2pair+ then maybe go for the checkback. The flush card sucks, not because you're afraid he has it, but because many players clam up with 2pair because they're afraid of it, and you're looking to b/f the turn.

I mean, we beat (and often stations a smaller ~1/3 pot sized bet)

AQ (6)
KQ (12)
QT (12)
Qx (~12)
KJ (12)
JT (12)
J8 (12)
TT (6)
T9 (Discount to 2 that call)
As9x/A9 (Discount to 2 that call)

= 88

We lose to (and might not raise flop or turn)

KT (16)
T8 (16)
QJ (9)
Q9 (9)
Q6s (3)
JJ (3)
J9 (9)
99 (3)
66 (3)
96s (2)
Low flushes (~8)

= 81

Feel free to modify, etc. Again, it's clearly close (will never perfectly identify the above combos), and when it's close, I value bet. But checking is not a meaningful mistake at all.

Generally that's my thinking re: combos = thin river value bet.

And yes, I do assume passive play with non-nut hands is very possible here.

Not at all surprised to see a straight call us down or a real loose passive not raise a non-nut set on the flop.

Also, can change KT to 15 combos since the flush combo very likely raises turn.

And yes, if Q9 and Q6s are possible, so are a ton more Qx top pair that give us value.

All signs point to at least a 1/3 PSB thin value bet here.

Agreed. I think this is a big spot where people are missing value at low stakes games. Bet/Fold this turn and river all day.

I think we all agree that it is thin but most of us agree that it is +EV to make the bet considering high 1 card FD and top/second pair have called down and will call 1 more street.

I expect villain to play QJ this way. There is a decent chance he plays a set this way. Sometimes, it basically depends on how likely he is to put you on AKx and bluff-catch the river. I would consider betting smaller on the river if villain is someone who starts folding one-pair hands if facing a bet that is $100+. I would consider checking behind against a player who can check-raise with worse hands.

Thanks everyone for the responses.
Results: V check calls River w T8o

I certainly wouldn't expect him to raise with that hand at any point.

I'm skeptical that we get value from Qx often enough to bet. 3-flush boards great to bluff at because players tighten up when the obvious draw comes in and play pretty straightforwardly. Also a passive player won't raise a lot of better hands because they are afraid of the flush.

To b/f the river I think it has to be smaller than $130, maybe $80.

Rough results OP, but I think you played it alright. River is super thin, but I like it since most Qx is calling here. I think worse would probably fold, unless V has shown signs to be hero-y with 2nd pair before.

Hopefully you played more hands with V and took them to value town on the majority of hands they won't "fit". + tons of opportunity to bluff bigger on scare cards now. Calling with t/8 in the SB and on the flop with a gutshot is someone you want to play more pots with.

The bet only has to get value from worse 50% of the time for it to be a proper bet. Add to the fact that every once in awhile V could get cold feet and fold a hand like 96 here given the runout and triple barrel, and it should be a clear river bet .

He had a DBB on the flop, not a gutshot.