$1/$2 at Caesar's. Effective stacks ~$150

Folded to me on the button (AA).
I raise to $7 and both blinds call.
Flop is J84 rainbow.
Blinds check and I bet $13. SB folds and BB calls.
Turn is a 5 (board is J845).
I notice the BB look at his chips but then he checks.
I bet $20 and he raises to $60.

I wish I had just checked after seeing his chip look!

(Didn't have any specific reads on the BB at this stage. He didn't seem too unusual.)

I'm just going to link to the man himself.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...t=1&PHPSESSID=

In this case, you just have an OP. Without a read the villain is hyper aggressive, it is a fold.

Raise more preflop. Villains didn't drive 35min to the casino on their one night off per week to fold. We can easily raise $15pre.

As played, yeah we can fold.

agree with more pre flop.

I think you can make a case for folding or calling the raise. obviously nothing wrong w/ folding a one pair hand. At the same time you opened the button, no one is giving you credit for being as strong as you are. I think you can call $40 more in position and then evaluate the river.

but that tell is certainly tried and true

Thanks everyone. I understand the raise more pre, although that was a fairly standard raise for that particular table, and since it's Vegas, arguably people can afford to fold a few hands if they are there for a week.
However maybe $10 is better - and the fact that both blinds called doesn't help my argument!

As for the turn - I folded and he showed a 5.
I was thinking J5 before he showed it, but could be any two pair or even a set of 5s, or 56,57 for the pair plus gutshot.

I actually like the pf sizing. From EP or MP, you want to raise more, but in a blind steal situation with AA, I want action. Odds are that neither of the blinds is going to have all that much. There's a ton of hands that will call a raise to $7 that wouldn't even think about it for $15.

I think this is one area where bet sizes would be exploitable online or playing with the same people live, but in LLSNL, no one will ever exploit. If it's folded to you on the button, raise to $12-$15 if you just want to steal the blinds. Raise $7-$12 if you have a monster hand and want action.

Most people will just fold their blinds to $15 button raise. The first 6 or 7 people folded for only $2. The last two will certainly fold for $15.

You want the blinds calling when you have AA.



Why did I think the Baluga Theorem was that "no one ever folds a full house"?

Zeebo's Theorem is nobody folds a FH.

Yeah, like 67.

bet bigger on flop, 15+

bet bigger on turn, fold to raise