This hand took place in a 2/5 game at Maryland Live on a Thursday evening. Max buy-in is $600.

Hero: Mid-20's guy playing for the first time here (in the area for business and had a free night so I decided to check the place out). I'm playing very aggressive and have been caught bluffing a few times. However, I haven't made any huge mistakes and have shown down two huge winners in back to back hands within the last hour. I have the second biggest stack at the table and should be considered a strong LAG or TAG.

Villain: Late 20's to early 30's with headphones, sunglasses, and a hat. Every single dealer and a lot of other players know this guy so he is clearly a reg/maybe pro. I believe he has been playing pretty straightforward TAG poker but we haven't been in any significant pots. He recently spiked Aces full of Queens on the river against a flopped nut flush. Stacked the guy after going AI on the river.


$2/5 NL (10 handed) - Relevant Players
UTG Hero ($1,200)
UTG+2 ($450)
Button Villain ($1200-1400)

Hero is dealt AA

Hero (UTG) limps for $5, fold, UTG+2 raises to $20, folds to Villain (button) who calls $20, folds to Hero who raises to $80, UTG+2 folds, villain calls $60 more.

I limped UTG with AA because this table has been a calling festival. I didn't want to make it $20 and get 3-4 callers and be out of position against the entire table with Aces. I was pretty sure someone would bet and then I would come over the top with a strong RR to hopefully isolate OR get someone to make a 4-bet mistake thinking I was stealing (obviously not as likely because I'm UTG, but still).

Flop ($187) Q74
Hero bets $150, villain thinks about it for maybe a minute or two and goes all-in... I have $970 remaining.

I pretty much ruled out 77 and 44 because this guy is too good to go set-mining. Queens is obviously a possibility here but I'm skeptical because I think he would've raised the $20 or 4-bet. AQ and KQ are clearly in play along with a plethora of flush-draws, which is what I thought was most likely. My big struggle here is the gigantic overbet - do I really want to risk an additional 194 BB's with AA? Especially considering it's quite possible villain has QQ.

Do you fold AA in this spot? What do you think of my pre-flop logic? Should I have checked the flop to induce a bet so I could re-raise? Let me know your thoughts and thanks for the help! I will post the spoiler after (hopefully) receiving some solid replies.

Given your range, how are you doing? Have you actually run it through Poker Stove (or equivalent?). Have you tried adding a few more combos of sets?

Try adding all of them. Then see how you are doing.

I'm mostly folding here without better reads.

Based on the info provided in OP, i would fold for sure.

Hate pre-flop.
If you're getting 3-4 callers with $20 then just open raise more, to like $30.
People usually put limp re-raisers on Aces or Kings, and thats exactly what you have. So now V, who you said seems like at least a good reg, can play you perfectly.

Your flop bet is pretty big, which is fine, but it indicates strength after you l/rr.
Most likely, V is putting you on Aces or Kings and is hoping you cant fold to one bet (which most cant). Hands that do this typically have you crushed (eg set) or have good equity like 56 hearts combo draw or A-high flush draws.

You ruling out 44 and 77 because 'V is too good to setmine' makes no sense. The fact you said that means even you think V knows you have a big overpair, again advocating my point of not limp re-raising. And how is it a mistake calling your re-raise when he has position and lets say he did hit, you're now thinking of stacking off over 200BB on the flop to his all in?

Another thing to consider is you guys are 250BB deep...the chances that a TAG reg would be willing to gamble and stack off that much on a hand worse than yours is slim. You also mentioned V hadnt really been involved in big pots, and the 1 time he was he had the fullhouse.

Well you turned your hand face up preflop so that sucks. I probably call it off, if he's got 47/44/77 then cool hand guy. Q7 and Q4 are extremely unlikely and we can almost certainly rule out 47o. So you lose to two combos of 47s (still unlikely), six combos of sets, crushing AQ/KQ (but we doubt V plays those hands this way), crushing KK, in good shape against Axhh, and flipping with SD/FDs.

More likely he has a combo draw and you've already got $230 in. V calling means he's facing a huge bet on the turn and he wants to see both cards so he can just stuff and hope you fold, or be fine with you calling since he should have at least 35% anyway. Regs love to include AK/AQ in a preflop squeezer's 3b range so it's a decent shove by him if he doesn't care about the variance of getting it in since you can end up folding a lot of your one pair hands (which is almost 100% of your range here).

If you're going to limp/raise pre then bomb it and go $120+ with these stack sizes.

Villain can have 77 and 44 because he has position and you're representing a narrow and strong range.

have you shown any folds that could be perceived as nitty? If you fold AA here it would be profitable to make this play with any gutshot.

Don't limp in this spot pre.

I dunno man, I don't think V has too much Qx here. That'd be a bizarre shove.

Flush draws are possible, sure.

Sets re: 44,77 are possible. V has to call 60 more pre with stacks of around 1200. He also has position on you, there's a touch of overlay, and your range is very strong, which increases his implied odds. He'll definitely call off 5% of stacks with 44,77 to set mine.

Still, while he will definitely set mine pre, it's quite hard to have 44,77 re: combos. And either way, it's a really bizarre shove with any set, including QQ. So we're talking just 9 set combos, and imo a very low likelihood he plays those 9 combos this way... so I'm discounting his sets quite a bit. But that's not to say he won't be set mining pre... he will.

I think his most likely holdings are flush draws, especially hands like AhJh, AhTh, other Axhh, KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, etc. Like I said, I discount his sets.

So it's not the best spot ever, but don't fold. I think you're getting around 1.5:1. That means you need 40% equity. I think you have to be good here, make the call.

It's a high variance more-than-slightly +EV spot imo. It's a call. When he flips over a flush draw, you're doing pretty well given the odds. That said, if you folded, I can understand that, and I wouldn't beat yourself up over it.

LOL at assuming he can't set mine, he had to call $60 more in position, gives him 20:1 implied...should be a snap call for villain with any pockets.

Why is that? Hero himself posted a range he is crushing, even discounting sets more or less, including some qx hands. Whether his range is true or not ( I dont think it's accurate), he figueres to be way ahead, so the only reason he would have to justify a fold would be the amount of money involved.

I lost quite a bit of money sometimes due to bad decisions, but was never mad about myself if I felt it was the right play. Mistakes happen, whatever.
Would only be mad at myself, if I chickened out bc of some stupid reason like being money scared.
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The l/rr pre is bad at these stack sizes as others have stated. We turn our hand face up while giving nice implied odds.

I don´t like to fold, but I think I fold here because of V´s timing. He doesn´t need one or two minutes to decide what to do with a flush draw/combo draw.

Thanks for the help everyone. I don't want to quote a ton of posts but will make a few comments below.

A lot of good points about why the l/rr move preflop is a bad play and I generally agree... I use it occasionally in an effort to build a big pot but I don't think it's worth narrowing my range like that. However in this specific spot even raising to $30 would have gotten at least 2 callers and I prefer not to vary my opening bet (unless there's a ton of limpers). Also, I did achieve my goal here in getting a chance to 3-bet and build a big pot. Anyway I digress as my hand was pretty clearly face up here, especially since I've been opening at least 75% of hands I play with a raise.

It seems like most of you are disagreeing with my assessment of V's range... So what would that range look like? I would appreciate even more feedback here as range evaluation is a bit of a leak in my game that I'm working to improve. A bit more on this below.

As for the equity question. I ran this through pokerstove and based on the hand ranges below it's 58/42 in my favor which would seem to make this an easy call (assuming the range is correct):

Hero: AcAd
V: QQ,44,77,AQ,KQ,AhKh,AhJh,AhTh,All heart suited connectors,Jh9h,Th8h,8h6h

If we remove all AQ and KQ combos out of the villains hand leaving it to sets and heart draw then it changes to 36/64 in V's favor. That turns this into a tough decision but likely a fold.

Well, I said that because

there can be a reasonable case for folding here, like Kookie is making.

I would not fold here, but I can understand if hero did.

With your money I call, although I might fold at the table. If he has a set, it's because he's decided you'll view a massive overbet as a raise that must be a bluff and be inclined to call with AA, whereas you might find a fold later in the hand if he makes a more normal raise. This is 100% player dependent, and I don't think counting combos or even assembling ranges is going to be all that helpful.

EDIT: And if he's shoving with a bluff, it's because he's decided you won't call that bet with AA. Or maybe he's a GTO robot and is shoving all of his hands better than AA plus a balancing amount of bluffs and knows that all-in is the best sizing for this spot.

then make it 35?

no one is going to make a 4bet mistake because your hand is already face up.

He pretty much knows you have an overpair. I don't think he's doing this with sets or even two pair. I believe it's mostly draws and he pretty much knows you probably won't call the all-in with aces. This is because your hand is face up and it gives him all this leverage with his FE.

I can't say whether or not I would call because I would never l/rr in the first place so my range would be much wider. Your range is so narrow which makes it easier to get you off of your hand.

So vs a FD you are about 40% vs 56, and about 60% vs a NFD. You have 230 in the middle with about 970 to call. Calling is probably the right play but you are just about or slightly better than flipping at best. Add in set or two pair to his range and this is a fold.

You have described V as a straight forward TAG reg/possibly pro. While he might shove his draws here, this range is too wide and designed to rationalize calling (married to AA?). AQ and KQ def out, given your hand is pretty face up. QQ would have 3! pre, but didn't, so eliminate that. Same for Ah Kh. Jh9h, Th8h, 8h6h folding pre when you raise it to $80. If you are giving this guy credit for being good TAG, then he's not putting in $80 with medium gappers and probably folding a lot of his SC's too.

I've made V's play before myself... Massive over bet shove (WITH A SET) on flop when other guy's hand is pretty face up as a large over pair. Why? To get paid because many players just spazz and cannot let go here, and default to putting me on the big draws and because you might find a fold much easier if a 3rd heart comes on the turn.

So fold. And tighten up that range.

I've made this play against people with gutshots because I was sure they'd fold and with sets because I was sure they'd never fold. I think this really comes down to how villain perceives you OP. Have you shown any hero folds? If so, caw. Have you stacked off with one pair in a dumb spot? If so, fold.

I agree with this. If the villain's as good as you believe, he's shoving because he has solid reasons to do so.

If he's shoving as a bluff, it's because you've given him good reasons to believe that you like to fold.

If he's shoving as a value bet, it's because you've given him good reasons to believe that you like to call.

If you've been very aggro, then you probably should call here. Villain thinks: "He's trying to steamroll his way to another pot; he think's he's the golden boy; but I'm going to cut him down to size by forcing him out of the pot."

I disagree with the posts that say you've turned your cards face up. The villain may think that you're sophisticated enough to rep AA UTG with a limp/rr. He's not convinced you actually have AA.

I think he called your $80 bet because he didn't respect it. He thinks your full of ****. I'm guessing his hand isn't strong enough, on its own, to call that bet preflop.

My $.02. Am I right? Did you get to see what he had?

Hand Results:

I tank for several minutes. At first I convinced myself to fold but then decided he didn't have a set and I was nearly positive he was on a FD. I didn't really want to play for stacks vs. a flush-draw but folding is insanely nitty and -EV.

I *sigh* called and he rolls over 5h6h for the monster draw. Obviously he hit the flush on the river to scoop the ~$2500 pot.

This has bugged me for the last week partially because it might be the biggest pot I've lost since moving up to 2/5, but mainly because I know I misplayed the hand and I think I could've folded. Honestly I'm still confused on this one and not sure I made the right call. Obviously I lost the hand so it was the wrong call that time but in the LR I think it's still a profitable call.