Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-25-2018, 01:43 PM   #1
Irunsobad
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 103
AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Villain 1- super bad passive station, covers the table

Villain 2- never played with him before seems semi competent, $200

Hero- has loose image and generally does not get credit for having hands, $330

OTTH

Villain 1 straddles UTG for $5, villain 2 calls, hero opens on the button to 20 with AhAc, both villains call

Flop ($63) KsQc8d

Checks to Hero who bets $30, villain 1 calls, villain 2 folds

Turn ($123) Tc

Villain 1 checks, Hero bets $50, Villain 1 calls

River ($223) Ah

Villain 1 checks, Hero?
Irunsobad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 02:11 PM   #2
Matt98
centurion
 
Matt98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 135
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

I definitely like a check back here. He's got a lot more combos of KJ, OJ, JT, than KQ or OT and it sucks getting raised.
Matt98 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 02:19 PM   #3
Havick
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 232
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Tempting to go for thin value here. I'm opting for the "nit check back".

While your hand did improve, it's not very strong given the board. I don't think you're getting called by worse often enough. I feel like if villain were on some kind of have you could get value from, we'd have heard from him by now (2p+). If he missed the flush, he'll fold to a river bet.

If you bet and villain jams, I can't see how you'd call. That's how I'd normally make the decision. If I'm okay with calling off a stack on this board, then I'd bet river. In this case I'm not, so it's a check back for me.
Havick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 02:29 PM   #4
aftrglw
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 464
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

I think you could size bigger pre, flop and turn for more value. I think you can get value from a lot of 1p combo draws on the turn. I'm checking back river and I don't think it's particularly nitty to do so. Your hand improved but I think V just has too many Js there for it to be profitable.
aftrglw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 06:12 PM   #5
weiskoda
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Cincinnati/Washington DC
Posts: 63
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

I'd opt to bet $75-90ish and be prepared to fold to a raise (especially given V is described as passive). There are many, many hands he could plausibly have that would call and that we are ahead of - Lots of 2Ps and sets. Yes, he could have a jack. But without going through all the combos, I think there are many more combos without a jack. And even a bad passive player is likely to bet river for value with a jack b/c V can't count on us to bet in that spot.
weiskoda is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 06:42 PM   #6
larrytao
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 69
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

I agree with sizing up pre-flop, especially V1 is passive so why not charge more?

Flop sizing is OK and maybe a little bit larger on the turn

River I think is a clear check back - he has many one pair type of hand with a J in his range that would call, especially given your sizing - so I would check back river and avoid the temptation to go for thin value here
larrytao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 08:10 PM   #7
m0mmy
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 259
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Quote:
Originally Posted by weiskoda View Post
I'd opt to bet $75-90ish and be prepared to fold to a raise (especially given V is described as passive). There are many, many hands he could plausibly have that would call and that we are ahead of - Lots of 2Ps and sets. Yes, he could have a jack. But without going through all the combos, I think there are many more combos without a jack. And even a bad passive player is likely to bet river for value with a jack b/c V can't count on us to bet in that spot.
+1 bet fold all day. Villains at 1/2 arent bluff raising rivers enough not to go for thin value here. If he raises you can comfortably fold and not lose any sleep over it. The art of bet folding rivers is like printing money at these stakes.

Sent from my LM-X210(G) using Tapatalk
m0mmy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 09:30 PM   #8
Matt98
centurion
 
Matt98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 135
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Well let's give V like 1/2 combos KQ(so 4.5), as he's unlikely to play top two passively on two streets, even if he's bad. And we can conservatively say that he has all 9 combos of KT, and QT, even though I don't think he's playing those passively at a 100% frequency.
That means we're looking at 22.5 combos of TP we can go for thin value against, and that is a liberal estimate IMO. Then say 3-6 combos of K9 that he might call and you're looking at around 27 combos of hands to go for thin value from.

But he should have all combos of KJ, QJ, JT, so 36 combos.

Assuming he's competent enough to know that a J is the nuts on this board, a 75 dollar bet has an EV of -75 57% of the time and +75 43% of the time.
I'm discounting times he folds because that's the same outcome as check.

So even with a liberal estimate of TP combos and assuming he calls 100% of that range it's still -EV to bet/fold here.

I agree bet/folding is an extremely profitable strat at 1/2 but I think Vs range is too weighted toward Js for a bet/fold to be profitable.

I could be wrong about my range assignment so let me know what you guys think.
Matt98 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 10:48 PM   #9
weiskoda
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Cincinnati/Washington DC
Posts: 63
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt98 View Post
Well let's give V like 1/2 combos KQ(so 4.5), as he's unlikely to play top two passively on two streets, even if he's bad. And we can conservatively say that he has all 9 combos of KT, and QT, even though I don't think he's playing those passively at a 100% frequency.
That means we're looking at 22.5 combos of TP we can go for thin value against, and that is a liberal estimate IMO. Then say 3-6 combos of K9 that he might call and you're looking at around 27 combos of hands to go for thin value from.

But he should have all combos of KJ, QJ, JT, so 36 combos.

Assuming he's competent enough to know that a J is the nuts on this board, a 75 dollar bet has an EV of -75 57% of the time and +75 43% of the time.
I'm discounting times he folds because that's the same outcome as check.

So even with a liberal estimate of TP combos and assuming he calls 100% of that range it's still -EV to bet/fold here.

I agree bet/folding is an extremely profitable strat at 1/2 but I think Vs range is too weighted toward Js for a bet/fold to be profitable.

I could be wrong about my range assignment so let me know what you guys think.
Thanks for actually looking at all the combos - I think we should include 88 in his range for sure and possibly some Ax hands like AK and AQ (although obviously less likely since hero has AA). Also K8 and Q8 at something much less than 100% too (suited perhaps), and also JJ.

With those hands, I imagine it's neutral to positive in terms of EV - That said, it's close for sure.
weiskoda is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2018, 11:06 PM   #10
m0mmy
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 259
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt98 View Post
Well let's give V like 1/2 combos KQ(so 4.5), as he's unlikely to play top two passively on two streets, even if he's bad. And we can conservatively say that he has all 9 combos of KT, and QT, even though I don't think he's playing those passively at a 100% frequency.
That means we're looking at 22.5 combos of TP we can go for thin value against, and that is a liberal estimate IMO. Then say 3-6 combos of K9 that he might call and you're looking at around 27 combos of hands to go for thin value from.

But he should have all combos of KJ, QJ, JT, so 36 combos.

Assuming he's competent enough to know that a J is the nuts on this board, a 75 dollar bet has an EV of -75 57% of the time and +75 43% of the time.
I'm discounting times he folds because that's the same outcome as check.

So even with a liberal estimate of TP combos and assuming he calls 100% of that range it's still -EV to bet/fold here.

I agree bet/folding is an extremely profitable strat at 1/2 but I think Vs range is too weighted toward Js for a bet/fold to be profitable.

I could be wrong about my range assignment so let me know what you guys think.
I think your underestimating the amount of hands a passive 1/2 fish could make it to the river and call with. I think he has all the KQ and sure he has some sets at a higher frequency than others. But at the end of the day he could have all the sets here.

Sent from my LM-X210(G) using Tapatalk
m0mmy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2018, 01:34 AM   #11
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,137
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

Bet/fold $60. There are a lot of combos that aren't Jx. He probably won't bluff raise. Given villain's description it might be possible to go bigger, but even idiots should know that Jx is the nuts and it's not that hard for either player to have here.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2018, 02:08 AM   #12
Kobold Esq
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 825
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

First of all, I'd go more like 25-30 pre with a straddle and one caller already, but maybe I'm nitpicking. As played I'd probably kick it up to 40 on the flop. Lots of KX hands and QX with gutters or back doors will still call.

That being said, the turn and river turn out like **** for us. I probably still lead the turn, but I check back the river.

There are so mant JX combos this guy can have calling only $15 for preflop. Basically every JX from J8+ could be in his range (especially when suited).
Kobold Esq is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2018, 09:35 AM   #13
ionutd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ionutd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 7,599
Re: AA face interesting river spot 1-2

safe to b/f on the small side
ionutd is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online