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AA on dry flop vs unknown

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01-27-2018 , 10:32 AM

Scooo13zzz

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 408

1/2 300 bb max

Villain-Unknown villain who just sat down 2 hours ago. Has only played maybe 4 hands. Seems to be on the tighter side. No read.

UTG- calls $2.00

(400$) Hero-A

raises $15.00 (Middle Position)

(220$) Villain- calls $15.00 (Button)

blinds fold and UTG folds

Pot= $34.00

Flop- 8

Hero- cbets $25.00

Villain- raises $65.00 and has about $150.00 behind

Hero- ?????????

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01-27-2018 , 11:37 AM

QuadJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 6,237

Make a live read and go with it. Either fold now or call and plan to call a turn shove.

In abstract my inclination is to call. If villain is that tight he shouldn't have a lot of sets on a board this low so KK/QQ that he slow played preflop should make up a good portion of villain's range.

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01-27-2018 , 12:16 PM

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Just shove.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scooo13zzz

just sat down 2 hours ago. Has only played maybe 4 hands.

Wait, fold.

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01-28-2018 , 12:25 AM

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

LLSNL games play differently in different places, but my default is to just fold overpairs in this spot, because people usually don't bluff raise or raise one pair hands. Given this guy has only played 4 hands, definitely just folding. It doesn't look bad, people just assume you had AK or something.

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01-28-2018 , 12:32 AM

Viral25

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,857

^I could care less about how it looks, lol.

I do care about the # of set combo's vs the combo's of 99-JJ, which should be well within our favour.

Flat and get it in on the turn.

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01-28-2018 , 01:23 AM

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

In my games, people typically do not raise 99-JJ here, and definitely not people who have hardly played any hands.

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01-28-2018 , 01:01 PM

Irunsobad

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 110

I think its too exploitable to fold the flop, and definitely too thin to 3 bet the flop so that means you have to call. Turn I think if he jams you kind of have to call because the price is really good (calling 140 for a pot of 440), and its really exploitable to fold on brick turns. The worst turns for you in this spot are like a T of a J because villain could be raising TT or JJ thinly on the flop and have just sucked out on you, but even on these turn cards i think you still have to call.

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01-28-2018 , 02:38 PM

Scooo13zzz

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 408

you don't have to worry about being exploited at 1/2 I run into what I consider a winning player that can play higher stakes (bankroll problems) at 1/2 maybe once a month

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01-28-2018 , 02:40 PM

Scooo13zzz

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 408

I too play 1-2 1-3 and from my experience villains have sets here more than over pairs I would say 3/4 of the time they have the set

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01-28-2018 , 06:32 PM

#10

Scott7x

adept

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 1,186

call flop, and look to exploitively fold turn. Pretty common for V to ‘raise for protection’ with 8x plus at 1/2. If this is what he is doing, he will check back turn and you can value bet river, I have been in this spot multiple times. If he has it he will jam turn and you can fold. Once you call flop raise, your hand looks like what it is, and V won’t try to move you off it, assuming he has no fold equity.

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01-28-2018 , 07:46 PM

#11

Scooo13zzz

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 408

Spoiler:

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01-29-2018 , 12:52 PM

#12

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scooo13zzz

Spoiler:

SHOCKER!!

You had the read with this "...sat down two hours ago and has played 4 hands...". Snap fold OTF.

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01-29-2018 , 02:57 PM

#13

Joey913

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,300

Quote:

Originally Posted by shorn7

SHOCKER!!

You had the read with this "...sat down two hours ago and has played 4 hands...". Snap fold OTF.

Shorn, would you have checked this flop to avoid this decision?

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01-29-2018 , 03:36 PM

#14

TruNinja619

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scooo13zzz

Spoiler:

I would have done the same thing in that spot. Maybe call, see the turn, and most likely check/call all-in.

After reading the results, his hand does make sense. If he had KK or QQ, V would have most likely reraised to like $45-$60 at least Pre-Flop instead of calling.

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01-29-2018 , 03:56 PM

#15

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joey913

Shorn, would you have checked this flop to avoid this decision?

Nope. But I probably bet slightly less and fold to the raise. A guy who plays 4 hands in two hours is not going to be able to exploit me in any way for this fold.

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01-29-2018 , 04:30 PM

#16

Joey913

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,300

Quote:

Originally Posted by shorn7

Nope. But I probably bet slightly less and fold to the raise. A guy who plays 4 hands in two hours is not going to be able to exploit me in any way for this fold.

Not trying to be argumentative but just trying to understand you're thinking on this hand vs. other hands where you have advocated checking an overpair on the flop OOP as the pre-flop aggressor.

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