1/2 game.

Hero has $800. Has played very tight throughout the night. However, hero recently played a hand where he opened 63s in late position and fired three barrels into a QJ575 board with no flush draws and was called down by a guy in the blinds with K7o. Hero must have a tell or the guy must have specifically put Hero on AK? I still don't know what happened here.

Villain has $400. Limps a lot of hands preflop, hasn't bluffed very much if at all. Won most of his money value towning a donk earlier.

Villain is the B, Hero is SB. Villain button straddles for $5, Hero makes it $18 to go. Folds around to MP who calls and the B who calls.

Flop comes KJ2r. Pot is $55.

Hero fires $35, MP folds, B calls. I make this bet because I want value from KX, JX, 66-TT, QT, AQ. I think the only hands I'm behind are 22 and KJ (I also saw Villain play K4s earlier stating that it was his favorite hand, but I don't know if this means that K2s and J2s are in his range). There was no 3betting preflop which makes me discount KK and JJ.

Turn is a 2. Pot is $125. Effective stack is 345.

Hero fires $75, B moves all in. The deuce seems like a safe card as we expect that to only help the very bottom of his range (unless he now has quads). At this point we have aces up and only a few hands are ahead of us 22, KK, JJ, 2X (K2/J2/etc). If we discount the big pocket pairs and the junk there isn't really much left. Hero needs to call 275 to win 545, so I need to have 1/3 equity against his range. The only value hand we beat is KJ (which is 9 combos). If he never has KK or JJ here does he have more than 17 combos of 2X? Should I give him credit for some percentage of the big pocket pairs here? Does this look like a spazz some percentage of the time, there are just so few hands he can have?

It's possible that villain floated the flop in position with 2x or air granted he just saw Hero triple barrel a similar board.

What would you do?

I'd call.

V's overbet of the pot doesn't make sense if he just filled his boat or made quads. Why wouldn't he just smooth call his monster and let you bet again on the river with a 3rd barrel (which he's seen you do), or value bet your AK, or fill your straight draw and then bet out? His shove then would give you good odds to call.

The turn overbet reeks of two pair trying to deny drawing odds to the straight, or a semi-bluff with his own straight draw, or air.

I'd look him up and expect to see KJ or QT most likely. Just maybe some strange 2x, but given you only need to be good 33% or better I think it's +EV.

Given the hand he's seen you in before why wouldn't he just let you
Spew?
He's competent as described and gii ott w just an OESD is not smart
As a competent player.
I think he can think tptk is the nuts vs you, who may very well be
Tiliting in his perspective.
Possibly trying to turn his hand into a bluff here thinking you might call.
But even thats not competent.
Then we go back to that k4s. He could possibly have turned his hand
Into a bluff w K2s seeking a call.
Lots of stuff to consider, any physical tells you can think of?

Pretty much no other option than to call.

call if has a FH or A2 then so be it. we can't fold here cause he could easily have KJ as well.

also your past history could influence this as well

How many combos of 2X do you give him credit for?

A2?
A2,32s,42s?
A2,32,42,K2s,Q2s?

Only 9 combos of KJ.

Between the hand that I got caught bluffing in and this hand he saw me win a medium sized pot (~$80) with top pair; so he might not think I'm tilting at this point.

When he made the shove he sounded kind of exasperated/defeated, but it wasn't exactly a sigh.

He has position so it's not like he's worried about me checking back on the river and there aren't really any action killing cards (maybe J,A).

people act funny on straddles, they don't like to fold plus he has position.

I can see A2, K2, and maybe 24 and 23. Also people shoving boats here isn't that uncommon at this level from my experience.

whats leaning me towards a call here is how you tried to bluff with 63 and got snapped off with 3rd pair plus he's short.

Only way i fold here is with good read and history he never gets out of line post flop, if thats the case then I can see a fold.

It would be very strange for villain to ship KJ here as it simply doesn't make any logical sense. If villain is shipping this turn which does not improve his hand, why would he not raise the flop? Villain is repping a deuce. Only way you can call is if you think he is bad enough to overplay Kx like this.

I think that sometimes villain will be more patient with a big hand when the board is so dry, especially when there is no flush draw. Like on a K72r flop sometimes villain is smart enough to let me fire two barrels with AK/KQ before he raises with 77/22.

Do you think the level is: Villain reps a deuce, Villain knows I will think his having a deuce is unlikely after calling my flop bet, therefore I may bluffcatch as light as KQ/KT?

you know been sitting here thinking about this hand and I wonder if this is more closer to a fold.

why would this Vil call flop then ship turn, he has to put us exactly on AK to think his hand is good. Also going off his BTN straddle range which is very wide IMO plus how we called down VS Hero earlier with trash.....

But with the same logic why would he shove with trips here after he saw us bluff with 63? He would have to be a decent hand reader IMO to shove hoping to get called with AA.

A simple hand but a bit complicated probably cause it feels so nitty to fold AA here.

You are thinking way too deep. Villain probably just thinks his hand is good and is trying to protect it and hopefully get paid off. You may seem tilted and are unlikely to fold made hands and he may even raise to make sure you don't hit a straight.

I called, Villain showed A2s. Now thinking about it I tend to agree that Villain usually has 2X here. I hadn't seem him get really out of line all night, it makes some sense to float the flop in position with a pair against a guy who bluffs and then he turned a big hand and just wanted to GII. If A2s is the only 2X combo he has here and he also ships KJ then the call is obviously fine, but I'm not totally sure what he does with KJ.

You would also have to fold KJ here? With KJ there are only three combos of KK/JJ/22 and there wasn't a 3bet preflop so you have to discount AA and there are only 8 combos of K2/J2.

But it's just not clear what you would beat if you have KJ in this spot (unless the guy overplays KX/SD). It seems the only hands you can call it off here with are KK/JJ/22 (7 combos)? We really need to know how much 2X is in his range and how he plays KJ.

32s 42s is not in described villains range

based on villain's hand vs whale(what I,have to work with) value owning whale
Id assume 32s 42s is not in range. And I could be wrong
This is based on the read, is villain competent but will play 32s 42s
Or is villain competent in a way where he knows better

and villain does not bluff so why would he start now vs
Our image

Btw..Sorry I got some posts mixed up, in another post someone
Said something about k4s being villains fav hand, sorry.