So I'm playing at Beau Rivage yesterday at a 1/3 table. Sitting on about $800, villain sitting on about $500. Villain is middle age guy playing 80% of pots. Trying to look serious with headphones in. Doesn't like to give up on pots. Hero has been raising a decent bit pre-flop.


Villain - UTG - limps. Two other limpers. Hero makes it $17 with AA. Villain calls, 1 other limper in MP calls.

Pot: $55

Flop 442

Villain thinks for a second then checks. MP bets $15 (lol). Hero raises to $50. Villain cold calls. MP folds.

Turn 7

Pot: $170

Villain bets $75

Hero:??

I think this has to be a fold most of the time. Don't think villain would fire a bit out with like pocket 6s or 8s or something. What do you guys think?

Against a bad loose player it's really hard to tell. What's his aggression level like? People tend to spazz with small overpairs on low boards even when it's obvious they're no good. I don't know how many times I've seen players I've previously pegged as good call off a buyin with 88 on a 247 board after I raise/bet/bet and it's obvious I have a big pair.

So I'm really not ready to give up this hand yet. I call and see what he does on the river.

This a fold most of the time? Against a guy who "doesnt like to give up on pots"? No way.
I mostly call and see what the river card and action look like, but against some people I would raise this turn.

If your read on V is accurate, I don't see how this is a fold most of the time. Call and see what happens.

I should add that he has only acted really aggressively in a few pots. The cold call on the flop does not make me feel I am beat. Him firing on the turn is why I think I am beat. He is a great player to get max value from on three streets with aces here if he has one small pair. However, he switched gears from his typical calling station self on the turn, and that aggression makes me doubt I still have the best hand.

These judgment call type hands don't always translate well to having a forum give you advice. You have a lot more subconscious knowledge of this villain than we do that can help influence your decision. If you really think that his bet here means you are beat and drawing to 2 (maybe 4) outs, then yes, it's a fold. However there's really nothing you've given us other than your instinct based on his aggression that he never does this with a hand worse than AA. I don't know what tells/instinct feelings I would need to give up on AA here. One of my own rules of SSNL is that the looser someone is preflop the more unpredictable they tend to be postflop.

While you're right to be somewhat taken aback by his sudden aggression, assigning a preflop maniac that tight of a range at this point in the hand seems like a mistake. It's very rare that you find players that are horrible preflop but play a solid postflop game. If they are bad pre their postflop game is going to have some holes and their lines won't make sense. They overvalue/undervalue the wrong hands all the time.

I'm guessing you were right and lost this hand, because you seem to want to steer us towards telling you to fold. I would caution against making comments like "this has to be a fold right." While it's not the same as giving results, any foreshadowing of the hand can skew them somewhat.

I gotta say, I feel we need to raise V OTT most of the time. I would chuck 200 on top. Needless to say, not folding.

I mean, we have this

And this

Never folding. If you ran into the top of his range this time, so be it. You cannot cost yourself value vs a V like this. You can honestly just autopilot against this V and print money.

Call turn

Even poor players who play 80% of their hands and don't like to give up on pots occasionally look down and see a decent hand. This seems like a classic way ahead/way behind situation and if that reason I would do my very best to keep the pot as small as possible. Raising the Turn here is spewing chips.

Eh. flop is not that dry.

I used to play in this game quite a bit. I think $17 pf is a little too small. With four limpers, somebody is bound to call $22-$27. Then you either get the same sized pot heads up or $75 three way. In a $75 pot, they will have to play more straight up / your decision becomes more defined.

I certainly agree with this.

Only played a few times at Beau, but I definitely agree with this. My pf sizing can definitely use a boost, especially with the weekend spewers.

Oh by the way, the result:

After 3 limpers in a loose 1/3 NL game, a $17 raise has zero chance at narrowing the field (I'm actually surprised we got it down to 3way). I'd be raising a lot more, although admittedly it is a very tricky spot against $500 stack because we don't want to blow everyone out and take the limps, but at the same time any reasonable range might create a bit of a tricky SPR. But we'll be in position, so hopefully that will help. I'm not opening to less than $25 here.

SPR is about 9 against main Villain. I would probably lean towards 3 streets of small bet/folding. The MP donk is annoying, but I would probably just ignore that and minnish raise to $35 (which is about what I would have led with). $50 is probably a more appropriate bet with the amount of money in the pot now, but we do start building a much bigger pot than we want a lot more quicker.

Gross spot on the turn. Even though we've been raising a lot, our hand does sorta look like what it is. Although it's possible he picked up a straight draw to go with his flush draw and is trying to steal it. But we're setting ourselves up to face a big river bet. If guy can be bluffy, I might call here, but I typically lean towards a fold (but it's very possible I fold too much).

ETA: I think a key is really *how* this guy doesn't give up on pots. Does he just check/call passively with weak hands and hope they are best / 5 outs someone? Or does he start getting aggro with these weak hands? Or does he only get aggro when he actually has the goods? This will help inform our turn decision.

Ggrossspot,imoG

Generally agree with GG's post.

I assume the small flop raise (35 into a pot of 85) was to avoid blowing V off his hand?

The cold call is a little suspicious. V is between original bettor and a raiser. Flatting here would be pretty strong if done by a competent V. I don't think it's quite as strong for this V, but I would put him on at least a flush draw and he could well have a 4 and have flatted hoping for other V to come along.

Calling flop and then leading turn is often strong, even more so given the flop raise.

Turn bet is relatively small and feels valuey. I actually don't hate a fold here. However, "doesn't like give up on a hand" is unclear. Does he like to keep betting his hands or does he like to keep calling? If he's normally passive, I'm really starting to like a fold.

That said, calling is at least OK and may be better without good reads on V. If I do call, it's the last money I'm putting in the pot and I expect to often fold river.

Edit: written before results

Is the 75$ turn bet ever a block bet?

Ever? Sure. But the flop raise has to raise the possibility of a turn raise also. Also, the draw isn't worth as much with the paired board in any case. There's a chance that we'll check it back, which would make the blocking bet not so much with the blocking.

And I've very rarely seen a blocking bet with a draw at LLSNL. I'm sure they've happened and I haven't realized it, but I still think it's not very common.

IMO.

I don't think I'm ever folding this either. I would call the turn and river. However you've said that you felt you were beat since he began to get aggressive. So I would take this a learning experience and do whatever you feel is right next time.

He bet 75 into 170 so you have to call 75 to win 245... This villian may underbet the turn and river to induce a call. Now you know when he does this he has you beat.

In the long run I think you can suck away his money by raising large preflop and continuing with a barrel postflop. Now you know when he begins betting into you to let the hand go. This was a small price to pay to learn how to destroy him and take his entire bank. Print money.

Look, y'all who want to call turn and river may have been right in this case (top of his range), but can we estimate how much money we lose with this line when he has 56, or a spade draw?

If we shovel the money in as fast as possible vs this V every time we have an overpair, we are NEVER losing money.

EDIT: Not to mention, we sometimes boat up.

Results oriented thinking and/or ignoring the original reads given ITT, imo.

Clearly not ROT for all the posts that came out before results.

OP states V doesn't like to give up on a hand, but doesn't give an aggression level. I'm assuming V is a more-or-less typical LLSNL loose V, i.e. he's passive.

If he's actually aggressive, I'm flatting him all the way to the river.

But assuming he's passive, the flop cold call + turn lead usually indicates a very strong hand. Passive V's don't lead out with draws on the turn very often at all. (I dislike words like "always" and "never" since they're never actually true. )

If you're right and V could be doing this with draws, I think you're right that folding is not a good idea.

If you're not right and V is passive, I think calling to the river is not a good idea.

Sure, that's fine, we can fold turn if he never donks draws, but my point is that turn is a fold or raise. All calling turn and river does is minimize our wins when we are ahead (minimizes losses too, but if we think we are behind, we should be folding). Based on the read, we make more trying to get AI with this guy ASAP (absent the read on what a donk from him means).

Its just not that simple.

I very much understand the crux of your argument why shoving>calling and how pushing an equity edge ott against a too wide range of donking hands benefits AA here for the reasons you outlined, but you seem to be neglecting important information which most likely makes shoving AA a gross overplay.

1. Heading to the flop SPR is 9, deep enough so that AA is nowhere near nutted even on a 442s flop. Here, OOP V ck-cold calls a bet and a raise from PFR which narrows even an 80% vpip player down to strong hands and strong draws when things are this deep. Marginal hands really don't behave this way deep, which narrows his range.

2. Hero has the As. From an equity standpoint this seems groovy, but before any betting takes place on the turn, V has no NFDs/no wheel+NFDs available which only serves to further narrow things.

3. Vs turn donk makes things dicey, but his sizing is atrocious and isn't accomplishing what his range needs. AA can call this bet without being committed nor immediately punished. This sizing also would precipitate that this V will be imbalanced on his River play, so that hero can pretty easily fold/call without being owned and without being committed on the turn.

Shoving over a range taking a wonky/but strong line for almost 2x pot is going to serve only as a protection bet as AA will not fare well against Vs gii range this narrow this deep as even the fishiest of players won't stack off medium draws for stacks as often as AA needs. If flop SPR were 4-5 then by all means raise flop, shove turn and win, but as stacks deepen and ranges narrow, shoving lines are at the very least no better than calling.

This is so bad.

I guess we disagree on the meaning of this

If I ever put that in my reads for V for a HH, I guarantee you that AA is doing quite well against V's gii range. When I say they don't like to give up on pots, I mean they could have floated flop and be donking their whole range, using the paired board to push me off an overpair. Will they call their whole range to a raise? Nope. Will they fold everything that is behind? Nope.

Also, against someone playing 20-30% of hands, having the A concerns me. Against someone playing ~80%? Not so much.

I suspect, however, at this point we are arguing semantics (in the reads), and differences in games. In my game I am quite happy to gii with someone I've described as the OP described this V, and in fact, there are plenty of guys in my game that I would be happy to gii, donk or no donk. With others, the donk means a 4, 77, or 22 and nothing else. These others don't have an ~80% VPIP, though.