Question here is about whether we should bet this turn, and if so, with what sizing.

1/3 $600 effective.
Hero opens UTG to $20 with AA
Only BTN calls.

Flop: KQ3 ($40)

Hero bets $30, BTN calls.

Turn: 9 ($100)
Hero?

As for the BTN player profile, I'll just say that he is a nitty very straightforward ABC younger player. He could have QQ in his preflop range but he never has KJo or JTo. He doesn't really bluff or raise light and so we shouldn't really need to worry about him pouncing on a weak bet.

Most likely a mixed strategy here. But against this guy I would check.

The turn is one of the worst cards for you.

If preflop result is expected (HU to a very playable SPR of ~15 against a straightforward player, albeit OOP), then fine.

Against very nitty straightforward non-bluffy players, I would lean to bet/folding the flop as we did; might bet slightly smaller against nitty players. Against more bluffier / not-as-straightforward players I would lean to check/calling the flop.

Against this guy I would probably lean to a small bet/fold on the turn (even though it's not the greatest card as JT got there). We know he's never going to get out-of-line and raise worse, plus we know he's always raising better due to the drawy nature of the board. We also know that setting up a bluffcatcher against him is useless. If we size small enough we can still get him to call off with worse. I probably go $40 and fold to a raise.

If he calls I'd probably plan on another very small 1/3 PSB bet/fold on safe looking rivers (basically targetting AK/AQ/etc. type hands).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah we don't need to worry about complicated balancing acts against this type of player. We should just take the maximally exploitative line for our particular hand against his range.

Then b/f 55

Okay thanks. This is basically what I did: I made a small $40 turn bet. My thought was that a larger bet would leave me in bad shape against a range of sets, straights, two pair and AK. In one of the previous hands I posted (AQ on QJ8A5 runnout) I received a bit of criticism for making a small turn bet. Just wanted a gut check here in this example as to whether a larger protection bet to price out his pair + gutshots would have been better.

The small bet straddles the line between all the things we want to accomplish, which is: not pile in money when we're behind, not scare away weaker hands that are drawing slim, and still charge draws a reasonable amount. If we felt committed due to small remaining stacks, then more reason to bomb and commit, but obviously we aren't feeling committed here.

Gasmallbetisfine,imoG

I bet/fold $55. Get some value from AK, make him pay a little more for draws, don't look weak -- although he doesn't seem the type to pounce on weakness.

$40 is OK, but I prefer a bit more.

Results: I bet $40 and Villain raised to $225. I folded and he flashed KK. I guess we dodged a bullet that he just called preflop.

At the time I really didn't think that this guy would ever have KK, and rarely QQ in his preflop range. I wonder if turn is more of a check if we give him all of his sets here.

With stacks this deep, his nit image, and him flatting often creating a HU pot on the Button, I'm actually totally fine with his preflop play.

I think his turn raise was too large. Although in the end he's simply targetting AA/AK/QQ/KQ (as it's unlikely there's going to be any other money going into the pot with pretty much all other parts of our range unless we've been known to 4barrel air), and against that range I can't fault a bigger raise too much unless he thinks we're capable of bet/folding.

I like our turn bet and sizing.

Gnicehand,imoG