I am currently not playing this year, but had this hand saved and just wanted to post to generate some conversation about this type of situation with a strong holding PF but OOP.

Villain: Solid player at the casino (Thunder Valley), primarily plays in tournament series and 2-5 or 5-5. So far, has been opening one or two hands an orbit, mainly in position, and not doing anything super fancy. Just seems to be passing some time and following some of his backed at action at a 5-5 game.

Hero: Just started playing his session, up around $350 for the session, and playing particularly tight. Most of his focus is on the seats to his right, particularly when on the button or CO because the players two to his right are being rather spewy in a lot of spots.

Hand:

1-3 effective stacks 100BBs, hero has Villain covered...

PF Hero is dealt AA (black) in the BB.

Villain opens to 10 dollars UTG+1. CO flats. Hero raises from BB to 30 total. V calls. CO folds.

Flop ($71): 2s8s6c.

Hero leads for $25. V calls.

Turn ($121): 8h.

Hero checks. V ponders, wondering why Hero would check, says it out loud even, but then elects to check.

River($121): Js.

Hero checks. V bets 30. Hero???

Own Analysis:

Should be raising more PF with a limper from the CO. My bet sizing should have been around 40-45 PF.

My bet on the flop should have been larger, especially if my PF raise was larger, and possibly in the range of $70-$75 total. This would have put the effective stacks at $180-190 behind and the pot at $160-$170 going into the turn, allowing me to jam it.

I should be able to jam the turn here.

I guess I was trying to pot control and not play a massive pot vs this opponent who I view as a good opponent rather than just sticking to where I put his range and pushing harder and allowing him to possibly hero call off here.

Thoughts??? More information needed and if so what? Thanks as usual

I agree with most of what you said about raising more preflop 3 handed OOP and cbetting higher. I mean the river is obviously never a fold, I'd snap call? You also super undervalued your hand here. Your 1/3 the pot cbet almost looks like an AQ AK value bet or just a weak continuation bet. UTG+1 opening ranges are usually pretty narrow, so less 75,79, missed straight draws in his range. Maybe 67 suited for think value or like 1010/99? Live low stakes poker gets pretty weird sometimes

As I was reading the hand, I thought the same thing as your self-analysis. Raise more pre. Bet bigger on the flop. Shove turn. I have no idea why you would check the turn and river.

If you're so scared of a single player at the table that you can't play aces against them, you should probably switch tables. It's nice to target weaker players, but you can't be afraid to play normal poker against a specific opponent if that's what the action dictates. You want to get as much money in the pot as possible with your big hands.

As played, I'd make a smallish raise ($80ish) on the river. He's probably betting just because you've played the hand very weak. I'd almost expect him to fold to a small raise. Obviously an 8 or a flush is going to re-pop it and you can fold.

You basically said everything you need to know.

Bet more pre
Bet more flop
Shove turn

You should be really asking yourself why you only bet $25 on flop and checked turn. Those are both horrible plays.

Probably betting turn. As played your hand looks weak so you could get value from a J on the river. I don't know if V talking is a tell but usually when people talk they feel comfortable with their hand BUT I think V nets an 8 ott.

As played I raise small to 70.

I would have raised to $50 preflop (in general, I feel comfortable getting in stacks postflop in a pot I've 3bet if I get in 1/6 of stacks preflop).

Look at it this way. When we 3bet to only $30, the Villain is getting immediate odds of 2.5:1 to call. He's also calling $20 to possibly win the rest of our stack, which is another $270, so another 13.5x in implied odds. So overall, we've given him total odds of 16:1 to stack us. And unless we are 3betting every other hand, our range is pretty narrow and fairly "face up". Plus we've built a huge pot where stacks are going to be played for very easily. This ain't a great spot.

Now see what happens if we hadda raised to $50 (1/6 effective stacks). Now villain is getting less than 2:1 immediate odds, but more importantly his implied odds on the rest of our stack is only 6.25, for a total of around ~8x implied odds. This is a HUGE difference, and puts us in a brain dead easy stack off situation postflop. And of course, keep in mind that the chances of an UTG raising Villain calling $50 vs $30 to a preflop raise (plus noting there is already some other dead money in the pot) is virtually nil.

Once you setup preflop correctly, postflop plays itself, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This.

PF sizing was awful, and it all went downhill in the hand from there.

Looks like you sort of answered your own question. I agree with raising slightly more pre although maybe 33-37 and like you said betting more on the flop. I think the turn is the biggest mistake. We HAVE to be betting here. We can't give him a chance with a FD on the board. I'd bet atleast 40% of the pot here. With the turn and river check I think we look super undervalued and can easily snap call as played. I wouldn't be surprised to see him betting for thin value here with 99 or even 1010. Also think he does show up with a flush here sometimes.

Yeah, see when I read this I get where my line of thinking was just completely incorrect and I don't know why OOP I try to keep the pot small so much, when really I should just be pummeling these spots every single time I get in them, just exactly the way you said.

As for the raising on the river (as played that is), I don't know how much justification I can give to doing this. If anyone has more explanation for that part cool, and it would be appreciated.

As you said though, the big difference was the implied odds I was giving him had I made it more, I guess perhaps I just felt he would fold PF to me...I had not been opening a lot of hands and he had only seen me have QQ and KK so far in the session.

River is a raise simply because monsters are likely to vbet larger than 30% pot. You're under repped and have the best hand a huge majority of the time, get some value.

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oh okay, thanks

pretty good assessment of the thin value...pretty solid thought process...thanks

I don't think the PF was horrible but the rest was. 40 on flop minimum, which sets up 100-140ish OTT. I agree tho this hand is much easier to play if you make it 40+ pre.

yeah I felt the 40 range would be best...all of the advice has been great