Any reason you’re not going 4x+ in the SB dumbo? iirc you went the same sizing in the A10o hand. V’s odds to call here are really good and we’re not pushing FE as hard as we could be with our bluffs.
I’d bet/fold because V could go for thin value w/ worse if we check- since there’s very little behind . Also, V’s most likely hand given preflop action is Qx and a sticky 99s-JJs. I’m not sure this river is that bad for us in practice.
I’d be more concerned about a Q river and cards that give V two pair or a set more often like an A-10.
Edit: w/ only $150 behind, AI is the only sizing even if thin. This is why you bet 20-33% on the flop in 3-bet pots.
Yes, fat value w/ AA on a dry board is the name of the game or whatever people say but there are a lot of drawbacks to being exploitative that have nothing to do with balance or our opponents being sophisticated.
Such as being able to bet all our bluffs profitably and giving ourselves room to maneuver on future streets.
Last edited by RoadtoPro; 09-19-2020 at 08:43 PM.