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AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods

09-07-2017 , 08:52 PM
V is 30 year old TAG reg. Winning player but prob a little too loose pre, bet folds often, is aggressive post generally. We had a verbal exchange a few months prior that I won't go into detail about. He dislikes me and views me as a a maniac lag in our limited history. We both have 600 in front of us

Hero opens 30 in MP over one limper with AA, V in cutoff is the only caller.

Flop T73 (72)

Hero bets 50 villain calls

Turn 7 (172)

Hero checks, villain bets 100 hero snap calls

River 3 (372)

Hero checks villain bets 300, call or fold

FWIW, I think pre flop and flop are standard, in retrospect I think not betting turn is a mistake, regardless of the results. What is V repping here? Is AA essentially just a bluff catcher on a double paired 3 flush board?
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-07-2017 , 09:37 PM
How many 7s or 3s does he even have in his range? Does he have 57s, 78s, A7s? Does he have any 3s? I definitely call here, and I like how you played the turn.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-07-2017 , 09:55 PM
Fwiw I think he calls pre with A3s which I block one combo of, I think with these stacks he probably peels with 87s 57s 67s and 97s. I'm curious as to why you think checking turn was right here? Picking up NFD don't you think it would've been better to continue to tell the story? Also, was snap calling turn foolish?
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-07-2017 , 10:17 PM
Is V capable of bluffing? If he is I like the way you played this hand if you call river. I like the turn check because you're never getting better to fold, it's hard to get three streets of value against Tx, there arent really any bad rivers for you other than a T and you maximize value if V is capable of floating and bluffing if you show weakness.

I call river. V is basically reppin 7x, TT or a flush. With the As you have the nut bluff catcher here, since you block most of his flushes and beat any made hand he's accidentally turning into a bluff, like JJ.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 12:57 AM
If you cannot beat what he's representing, you got to fold and I will explain you WHY.

In 2/5 games players don't bluff enough to reach the optimal percentage. Especially on the river when villain bets almost a pot size. Pot is $375 and he's betting $300. You are getting 2.25:1. If villain bluffs over 30% of the time you call this bet, if he bluffs under 30% of the time you cannot call because you'll be bleeding money. Now, for sure villains in 2/5 and even in 5/10 don't bluff enough to justify a call on the river for a pot size bet.

The number to remember on the river is 30% if villain bets pot size.
Is he bluffing of what he's representing more or less of that 30% ?

Regardless of how much money you put in the pot or your AA .., or whatever ..., If you cannot beat what's he repping, we FOLD based on the 30% Key

That's the key

Last edited by outdonked; 09-08-2017 at 01:06 AM.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 03:12 AM
I think you probably should call it off here.

You're a maniac LAG.
You raised pre, bet the flop (which means nothing), and then checked both the turn and river.

Maniac LAGs don't often check the turn and river with made hands unless they're doing some really sneaky double reverse ninja ****.

If you had air, I'd expect you to bluff at the board. Only way you're going to win!

If you had a monster, I'd expect a lead. Maniac LAGs like to get paid!

So you probably have something decent that doesn't want to bluff or value bet.

He prolly figures even with your maniacal LAGness, he has more 7's, 3's, and flushes in his range than in yours.

He can't check back for SD because you have a little something something.

Outdonked is right, LLSNL V's don't bluff enough. But I believe the FW 2/5 game can be tougher than most and it certainly has V's that can bluff enough.

But I don't hate a fold either. All of this is supposition piled on assumption piled on guesswork. It's not a super profitable call, if it's profitable at all.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 09:04 AM
your hand is way under repped plus your image of being a maniac lag who checks twice shows him weakness. Plus he's out to get you. I prob call here.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 09:19 AM
If suited gappers are in his pre-flop calling range, opponent is clearly too loose with 120 bbs effective.

97s/87s/76s/75s represent 8 combos. U block two combos of A3s, including the flop suits, so I’d eliminate those. How would he play KK/QQ/JJ pre? They represent 18 combos, 12 excluding KK. Monsters include TT/77/33 which total 5 combos.

Turn C/C may look to him as AsKx/AsQx/KsQx. If he weights your range more toward those combos, his bet sizing otr is suspect since those are folding to an 80% PSB.

Given your image and turn check (I agree), and if u can include over pairs to a ten taking this line, I think the river is a call. If not, folding is not a big mistake imo.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 09:21 AM
Is the river bet size more indicative of a bluff from him? Would he bet smaller for value?

W/o knowing his betting style, I agree with most other posters. With your image and your check/call on the turn, I think river is a call. He could be bluffing or think his hand is best (but doesn't put you on AA) -- not sure why he'd bet so big, though.

I can go either way, honestly. Tough one.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AvgReg
V is 30 year old TAG reg. Winning player but prob a little too loose pre, bet folds often, is aggressive post generally. We had a verbal exchange a few months prior that I won't go into detail about. He dislikes me and views me as a a maniac lag in our limited history. We both have 600 in front of us

Hero opens 30 in MP over one limper with AA, V in cutoff is the only caller.

Flop T73 (72)

Hero bets 50 villain calls

Turn 7 (172)

Hero checks, villain bets 100 hero snap calls

River 3 (372)

Hero checks villain bets 300, call or fold

FWIW, I think pre flop and flop are standard, in retrospect I think not betting turn is a mistake, regardless of the results. What is V repping here? Is AA essentially just a bluff catcher on a double paired 3 flush board?
he's repping flushes. we block the nfd (check/calling turn is fine IMO), he's also can only rep few flushes. How wide pre is he calling?

I'd think a reasonable pre calling range of spades looks like KQ/KJ/QJ/98/86/65/54. 7 combos total and 2 combos of A7, 2 combos of A3. versus any hands he's turning into a bluff (like any Tx with a spade). Seems while in a vacuum I'd fold because most 2/5 players don't turn hands into bluffs enough, there may be a case to call because of the dynamic you have with the villain plus we're at the top of our range.

I close my eyes and call off getting 2-1. However, if you think he's calling all sorts of suited BS (e.g. K2ss), it becomes a fold.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 04:10 PM
Hand is well played, now call.

The turn is a check. You have the As.
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 04:24 PM
agree with majority that this is a call:
* you rarely have a 7 or 3 here which means that if you fold AA you are going to be folding way too much
* you've described vill as aggressive post and willing to b/f so it's very possible he's betting worse than AA here
* the As is an important blocker that significantly cuts down the amount of flushes in his range
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote
09-08-2017 , 04:48 PM
I would fold because the board is too wet and this is live and there isnt' enough bluffs imo to call but I might call online if I think this guy bluffs a lot on the river
AA 2/5 vs ugly run out foxwoods Quote

      
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