Hero ($1500) young 20's Tag. Just got moved from broken table second orbit, haven't played a hand pretty much readless...

Villian ($500) late 20's Middle Eastern is here from interstate to play tournament series.

OTTH

$2/$5 10 handed

Hero opens UTG with Ac Ad to $25 V flats in MP, CO calls SB calls.

Flop ($105)
Ah Qs 9d

Hero cbets $55, V flats, rest folds.

Turn ($215)
10s

Hero Cbets $125 V flats.

River ($465)
8d

Hero Ch. V shoves.

Any and all feedback/comments much appreciated.

Bet sizes on flop and turn seem way too small. AP, probably fold river. I mean, I guess he can be turning a hand like A7ss into a bluff, but mostly he's got straights and two pair hands here. Is he turning two pair into a bluff? I don't think so.

WP

Flop is a bit small. I'd prefer $75 here.
Turn % is pretty good maybe just a touch small.
But if we bet the flop bigger, turn absolute sizing should be bigger as a result.

River is likely a fold as played, but if the flop and turn were bigger it would be pretty gross and maybe a call.

Yeah my problem with going small on a flop like this is hands like KJ and KT are able to draw to their gutshot for a good price given the implied odds they have against your specific hand. And even if we know they're going for value, it's too hard for us to differentiate two pairs from turned/rivered straights. This is much different than a flop like Ah9s2s, which also has a draw, but everything is going to be much more transparent there, and you will tend to lose less when they get there.

Sick spot. Hero's bet sizing looks more like he has AK or AQ, or KQ, so strength and s under-represented and possible V thinks he can blow hero off the pot when scary river arrives. Some tournament players like to makes this sort of move in cash games on scary boards.

His range for flatting pre, flop and turn: hands that beat you now AJ, QJ, JT, maybe J9s. KJ and J8 would raise on the turn. That is 31 combos. Some of these (QJo, JTo, J9s) might fold pre to UTG raiser (they should!). That would leave only 10 combos.

Other hands that flat 3x: All of these would be turning into bluffs on the river... AK (might raise pre), AQ (prob raises flop or turn), AT (prob raises turn), KQ, QTs, Q9s (prob raises flop), AsXs, KTs. Including all of these is 38 combos, removing those that might raise flop or turn leaves 26 combos.

After the turn, hero is ahead 38 v. 31 combos with the widest ranges, or 26 v. 10 combos with the narrowest ranges.

The last piece is how often does he turn the weaker hands into a bluff on this particular board. Very villain dependent, but hero's check on the river certainly gives V the opening.

Hero needs to win about 28% of the time for calling to be profitable. Against a cash game reg, I would fold. Against this V with such limited profile, inclined to call based on my own history of seeing tournament players go crazy in cash games on scary boards-- as tournament conditions make this type of call much harder.

Grunching ... Think I'm calling, though it is tough being readless. Most tourney players that I play with <<<<< solid cash gamers.

OTF - Seems like the only reasonable JX hands are QJ and JT. Would he continue with QJ and the CO yet to act?

OTT - We of course are readless, so not certain he would call with JT, but rather shove.

As others have said, hero's bet sizing is too small, IMO. This flop hits our opponents range pretty hard.

$75 OTF

$210 OTT

As played, probably folding.

Can we value-bet like $110 and fold river? Obviously when he jams we are getting really good odds, but I don't think he ever raise jams river with anything but a J. It's just sick when he over-value Jams 2-pair or a weirdly played set because he knows we never can have a J when we check.

Bigger ott. C/f river

I dont mind the betsizing, although I like to make my flop closer to 2/3 since 90% of live players always call your cbet, turn 1/2pot is good to keep them chasing or just stubborn with their dominated pairs.

As for river, JLIG, just let it go. They always have a jack. Even when they dont, they do.

More flop and turn. I'd bet at least 2/3 - 3/4 of the pot. Brutal river. I don't see any hand other than Jx shoving. There aren't many busted draws V would bluff with and you expect most Ax or two pair hands to check back. You'd also think most two pair and sets on the turn would raise.

I think you can narrow V's range to AJ and JT. Fold

As above but I'd open larger pre if I had seen 5X getting 3+ callers. Obviously you didn't know that till after this hand so good in hindsight or useful for next time.

On the flop are you always betting half pot? If not and you've gone lower here because you fear you crippled the deck I think that is an error.

Top set is a big hand but not invulnerable like the big full. You'd like to build a big pot vs the small amount of AX still out there, the 2-pairs and the lower sets and you'd like to charge the draws the maximum. So don't worry about them folding a lot - they will and there's nothing you can do about it.

However, when they do have a hand they will be able to call closer to pot so why not bet that and keep building on the turn? That way you win more when the board doesn't kill your hand like this one does but also you rep stronger so you don't start levelling yourself into thinking he is bluffing the river and make any bad calls.

You do need to x/f this river though. Any hand he has that wasn't strong enough to raise flop or turn is happy to check back the river and take a showdown so his shoves are almost all JX.

I agree a tournament player might make some mistakes here based on his tournament experience. I think your turn bet on a straight card, though small, makes your hand look like at least AX and checking river confirms it. Therefore Villain could decide he needs to turn any weak pairs or missed draws into bluffs. Trouble is he just doesn't have many weak pairs that he can pull this move with that didn't fold to the turn bet or any draws that didn't make it on the turn or river: Axss is about it.

I'd x/f river.

The bet sizing is fine. We have top set and there is not much out there. We are trying to get calls, not folds. Calling 1/2 PSB's with gutterballs is still extremely -EV.

I'm hero calling here because like duh we have top set and only need villain to bet a worse hand 1/3 of the time.

If he has KJ or JT wouldn't he have raised the turn? We have the nut bluff catcher and get the benefit of seeing his cards. Easy call in my book.

B/f $175

To be fair in game I x/c river.

Here I x/f