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9x shove on the flop with TPTK 9x shove on the flop with TPTK

12-15-2014 , 05:58 PM
Okay weird/annoying spot aagainst relativ unknown villain, he has been very agrezzive sinze I sat down 15 minutes ago but has shown a few good hands and no bluffs thus far.

Hero has 170bb in the CO
Villain has 160bb on the BTN

Hero has AJ
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP limps, Hero makes is 5.5bb to go, Villain calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 fold, MP folds.

15bb
Flop 8J2

Hero bets 13bb
Villain raises ALL IN
Hero??????

The only reason the bet struck fear into my soul is because 1) this guy has a wild personality but is also older/professional and I dont see him jamming with air here and 2)because the board is bone dry.

Should I call or fold?? Bonus Marks: Can you guess exactly what he had? Think hard and you will probably be able to guess his hand exactly (I wasn't able to at the time, I saw it and realize that this one the only hand in the entire deck that made sense)

Spoiler:
Are you sure you want to see?
Spoiler:
Think hard!
Spoiler:
he had 9T
I folded like a bitch
9x shove on the flop with TPTK Quote
12-15-2014 , 06:07 PM
Not sure it's a 9X shove. If you are playing $1/$2 then:

Hero has $340
Villain has $320

Flop ($30)
Hero bets $26
Villain raises all-in to $309

When Villain raised, the pot was $30 + $52 = $82 and Villain is raising $283 or 3.45X the pot.

Hero would have to call $283 to win $365 so you need to have 44% equity or more to call. It's a pretty dry board and you have a strong hand so the only hands that you don't have 44% equity or more against are:

sets
JJ
88
22

two pair
J8
82
J2

J8 is the only two pair that likely calls the button and JJ is unlikely as you hold blockers so the most likely hands that beat you are:

88 (3 combos)
22 (3 combos)
J8s (6 combos)

Given you have a bonus question. I'd guess T9s with a backdoor flush draw. You say it's the only hand that makes sense because the Villain would not go all-in with a set / top two pair since he wouldn't want to kill his action given:
- Dry board
- Only one opponent
- Relatively small pot

So you called. Hopefully the Q and 7 stayed away.
9x shove on the flop with TPTK Quote
12-15-2014 , 06:14 PM
I disagree that there's only one hand in the deck that makes sense. (And overshoving with that hand is terrible, quite frankly.) Overshoving here is way more reasonable with J8 or a set, especially with an aggro image, simply because there are enough people out there who won't fold overpairs on dry boards.

Edit: Obv I'm not saying that would be the best line with J8 or a set. Just that I'm not sure it's less bad than shoving 900x (give or take) with T9.

Last edited by Jay S; 12-15-2014 at 06:20 PM.
9x shove on the flop with TPTK Quote
12-15-2014 , 06:16 PM
Only hand that would over-bet/jam here is 9T. Why would a set or two-pair want to fold a worse hand?
9x shove on the flop with TPTK Quote

      
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