no implied odds? Im quite sure if we hit we are going to extract a lot, isnt it the case in this hand?

Really? how much more does he have in his stack?

That's a good point lol. But anyway, we have 2 callers (btn and sb), and we do not know their stacks. Assuming they are std low limit live players with 100bb, shouldn't we call? I'm not so sure it's always a fold in this spot.

Overlimping JJ on the button.
Folding KQs in the BB to a 3x open.
cold calling in this spot.

Effective stacks max out at 100BB (since that's our stack).

It's very, very unlikely V's will play so badly that we can put in 15% of our stack with a speculative hand and make money. The implied odds just aren't there. Even if they were somehow there (let's say everyone but shorty is really deep and bad), shorty is still likely to jam the flop. That has a couple of consequences.

It's a reasonably big bet, so it's likely to fold out some of the hands we'd like to keep in so that they can pay us off if we hit.

We have no FE if we raise, so we're denied one of the ways to make money with a hand like this: flop something that lets us bulldoze people off their hands.

If we end up with a dry side pot on the turn and river, people will know we're not bluffing if we bet, so they won't call us down as lightly and our IO go down.

Speculative hands against a short stack just really don't work out very often at all. Avoid them. OOP obviously makes that worse, so folding this should actually be handled by spinal reflex ganglia and not involve any actual cognition at all.

Alright, so I was fairly certain it was bad to call pre. Mostly just wanted to confirm and try to get reasons as to why exactly, which I did.

Also, I got stacked, so no, I wasn't going to post about how wrong everyone was. Legitimately just trying to improve.

Don't feel too bad about it. Nowhere near as bad as many of the horrendous mistakes we've all made learning this game.

Props for doing the work to learn.

lol

35:1 huh? you only need 3.7:1 to be breakeven.

a 10:1 effective stack is fine if you know that your V specifically has QQ+. 15:1 if you are nitty.

for the math illiterate........this

and ignore all of our equity the times that we flop flush draws, open-enders, gutters, gutters with a pair, or flush draws with a pair?

What are we supposed to do with that information? Just ignore it?

You're 4:1 dog in a general sense but with sc you're unlikely to just flop a made hand, you're flopping a draw (hopefully). You can flop equity but you're always getting it in behind unless you hit a big hand directly on the flop. This is the problem with the line of thinking that "sc do well against overpairs," it's true but only if you get to see all 5 cards.

10x is not remotely enough. 15x is not enough.

The full analysis is somewhat complicated, especially for multi-way, but reviewing a simplified HU case should suffice.

Assumptions:
Effective stack is S
Initial pot is P and we'll say it's 0 (assume it's small compared to S and that some or all is raked or toked away).
V has bet B

V is known to have KK+
Stacks always go in on the flop

If we flop 2P+, we will always win (clearly BS, but simplifying to make a point)
If we flop a combo draw, we will have 50% equity (reasonably close approximation)


We'll flop 2P+ 5.7% of the time.
We'll flop a combo draw (FD + pair, OESD, GSSD or OESD + pair) 5.6% of the time.

So 5.7% we flop 2P+ and always win S + P.

5.6% of the time, we win (S + P) * 50% - S * 50% = 50% P.
(Be careful not to confuse EV calculated from the flop with EV calculated from preflop when we're considering calling.)

The rest of the time we give up and fold so 88.7% of the time we lose B

So to break even we need 0.887 * B = 0.057 (S + P) - 0.056 * (50% * P).

With P = 0, and solving for B:
S / B = 0.887 / 0.057 = 15.6

We've assumed V never outflops or outdraws our 2P; we've also assumed he never folds when an overcard (or overcards) flops to his PP (more relevant if he QQ). Those counteract each other to some extent, but we lose our stack when V outdraws us, but only win the bet when he folds, so the net effect is that our assumptions are optimistic.

Clearly in the HU case, 10x isn't even nearly enough. 15x isn't either.

Adding some dead money to the pot obviously helps. You can plug the numbers in above to find out how much. Note that dead money means the person folds pre. If they're in the hand, it's multi-way, which is a much more complicated analysis (that I don't know I can even do).

Some side notes:
If we flop 2P, V will likley have about 25% - 30% equity.
If we flop trips, he'll probably have ~10% equity.
If we flop a boat, he'll have ~9% equity
If we flop quads or a SF, we have pretty close to 100% equity

All of these mean we need more than the above multiplier to make money.

Multi-way is really complicated to analyze; I think it needs a tool that will provide an equity breakdown on the flop for each hand range or a bunch of grunge work to analyze representative flops.

There's a region for small S where we actually call the flop even with a naked flush or OESD draw, but that region features such a small S that it's clear it's not profitable to call pre, even with the slight advantage we gain from correctly calling with FDs and OESDs.


Oh, and 1K. Woot.