Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
99 vs whale. 99 vs whale.

10-22-2018 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
How is the result we lose the vast majority of the time when these guys' garbage ranges mean one of them has a better hand OTF about 27%? Meanwhile each player has a worse pair 15%, an OESD or FD around 10%, and a GS another 10%. A whale likely calls all of these hands for 35%, while let's guess the other guy folds his gutshots and 1/3 his pairs. Then he calls with a worse hand 25%. Collectively we get called by a worse hand 51.25% assuming they do not raise these hands. That's not even counting all the nonsense the whale might float like AX. This is a super easy value bet.

I'm even betting the turn vs the whale if we get a nice blank like the 8h. And the 6h is not that bad to bet. The river we can x/c or x/f or even b/f (usually the first two). Yes there are players so stationy I would go for three streets on good runouts. But then again I'm a maniac right?

FWIW... pretty sure OP makes like twice what you do at 1/3, so I find you critiquing his play with your absurdly nitty advice not to raise a top 5% starting hand rather funny.
Whether we have a slight equity advantage against this guy or the field preflop / on the flop doesn't make raising / betting an overwhelming necessity thanks to we're only getting in fairly small percentages of stacks on these streets. And now all we've done is built a huge pot OOP to a non-ABC guy and now we're playing for some real money with a really mediocre hand on large streets; from a birds-eye overall point of view it's pretty meh unless we're pretty comfortable with what we're going to do (and I'm assuming OP isn't since he's the one asking the question at this point), imo.

GandobviouslycongratstoOPforshipping14+bb/hroveralargesamplesize,welldoneG
99 vs whale. Quote
10-22-2018 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Whether we have a slight equity advantage against this guy or the field preflop / on the flop doesn't make raising / betting an overwhelming necessity thanks to we're only getting in fairly small percentages of stacks on these streets. And now all we've done is built a huge pot OOP to a non-ABC guy and now we're playing for some real money with a really mediocre hand on large streets; from a birds-eye overall point of view it's pretty meh unless we're pretty comfortable with what we're going to do (and I'm assuming OP isn't since he's the one asking the question at this point), imo.

GandobviouslycongratstoOPforshipping14+bb/hroveralargesamplesize,welldoneG
Just because you don't feel comfortable with every possible outcome of the decision tree for raising 99 doesn't mean you aren't comfortable with the vast majority of outcomes from said decision tree. And even if OP doesn't 100% know the right answer, raising and making an educated guess in those unusual spots that arise in said decision tree is still far better than limping 99 to set mine.

The way you think just exudes nittiness. You want to limp/reraise aces and limp/call 99 and other "speculative hands" primarily nutmining. The reason you decide to play hand X a certain strategy is either

A) Because this is the most +EV thing to do

B) Because this strategy means we have simple decision trees and get to play a relaxing low stress game of poker where we can grind out hamburger money

By all accounts you go with B every time

SCongratsforwinning5BB/hrforadecadewithnoimprovementH
99 vs whale. Quote
10-23-2018 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Well, by the river (which is where we were headed with the whale always, amirite?) our pair was mostly likely going to be exactly what it turned up being: a fairly crappy ~third pair that hates the run out, and in a craptastic spot OOP to someone who isn't just going to turn over his hand saying "I missed".

GcluelessNLnoobG
You do realize you're aloud to bluff catch a guy that turns his whiffs into bluffs right?
99 vs whale. Quote
10-23-2018 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32
You do realize you're aloud to bluff catch a guy that turns his whiffs into bluffs right?
So that's our plan then? Know that we're going to likely end up with like ~3rd pair and just call down OOP on a lot of run-outs all because this guy can bluff?

You guys can do whatever you want preflop. Me, I'd rather have position. Or up against a face-up Button. Or know that my raise is likely going to isolate (lol @ "isolate", amirite?) the guy I'm attempting to isolate (noting that even here we went 3ways). It seems none of those things are being factored into the preflop considerations and all being overruled by "i haz 99", no?

GcluelessNLnoobG
99 vs whale. Quote
10-23-2018 , 12:00 PM
I’m loving this 135 to win 355.
He is an aggro whale, he loves to bluff and push people off of hands. The Ah is the ultimate scare card so he will fire maybe 100% of his missed hands.
We now know he doesn’t have a lone K because he wouldn’t bet when the A hit. So he has hands with an A or flushes. I’m calling here.
99 vs whale. Quote
10-23-2018 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtrain555
I’m loving this 135 to win 355.
He is an aggro whale, he loves to bluff and push people off of hands. The Ah is the ultimate scare card so he will fire maybe 100% of his missed hands.
We now know he doesn’t have a lone K because he wouldn’t bet when the A hit. So he has hands with an A or flushes. I’m calling here.
Basically this. These are a lot of combinations though, and he probably isn´t bluffing with ALL his misses, but still calling, not loving it ofc, but imo profitable.

Not sure on flop play, would most likely bet I think.

WHy are you guys still discussing preflop with GG?
99 vs whale. Quote

      
m