So playing in a 3 day a week cash game that I frequent often. Its getting pretty late for this group 5 hrs into the game and its really slowing down. I had recently tried to make a move pre by limp reraising and had some guy I didn't see in the pot ship his remaining 25 in. Point is my normal tight image is a little damaged at this point. History with this vilian is rather extensive but a few major hands recently that we've played. I typically attack him and he knows it. He raised per utg I called with 8-6cc 250bb or so effective. Flop 295 rainbow . He c-bets I flat planning on taking stab on turn. 7 hits turn. Oops. He checks as expected. I bet like I would have on float plan anyway. He ships I snap he shows a-q off for Nada. Played another with him recently where he highjack raised pre (150bb effective) I call with qq from cutoff. Flop 964dd. He bets 2/3 pot, I call, turn 2d. He bets 1/2 pot. Call. River blank. He hammers river. I fold, he shows the nuts. So hope that helps a little here.

To the hand.

Hero 99 (500) utg - raise 13
Villain bb (250 or so) calls and 1 other mid postion guy goes all in for less... so basically irrelevant. Also villain almost always defends bb against 1 or 2 opponents. Was fully expecting him to call pre.

Flop 864ss
Villain check, hero bet 21, villain studies then raise to 71. Hero call
Turn 4d
villain ship
Hero?

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First off, stop floating this guy with air if he is c/shipping AQ no pair that must be a pretty terrible plan.

I know this isn't the most helpful but it really is a very simple poker stove problem and you absolutely must be able to input a better range given you have history than random guys on a forum can from 2 hand histories.

I'm not smart enough to answer this (at 1/2, I always think about folding if those guys fight back) but I know there will be a lot of discussion of the pfr. Question: is there an argument for raising more from early position than from late position, to make up for the disadvantage of being out of position?

Yes, but the main reason that raise sizes are so massive in LLSNL is that people call loads with weak ranges. We don't want to raise to sizes so big that we put them off doing this.

If he's defending his BB as much as you make it sound like, I don't see how you can call here. That makes his range pretty wide and your hand is vulnerable to quite a lot on that board.

If you fold here you should've folded flop. This guy seems too aggro from the AQ hand and the 4 is a pretty good card for you.

That said I agree with quesuerte about stove.

I think guys are much less likely to bluff when someone is all in for less. They know they will have to show down the hand and act accordingly ( at least in my games)

Anyway I think after you call the flop you should just be calling turn because when the board pairs and he still ships he basically polarizes his range to 57 and flush draws....I don't think he would ship with full houses.......

I call here vs this particular villain who has already shown you he is capable of shipping very light.

The way he played the hand (the 86s) before this actual hand makes me think that float was terrible and that he is adjusting to you pretty well and u havent

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You got like a top 5 turn card for your hand, and you bet/called the flop. Sooo if you think you are good on the flop, the turn changes nothing.

stickwiththeplanstan and call it off as played. Flop could go either way of course though.