99 always vexes me...do I set mine, or bet it?

Home game (online, social), 1/2 blinds, 100 buyin, 6 handed...80 effective stacks, I have everyone covered, early in session.

I'm dealt 99 in SB, UTG straddles to 4, cutoff raises to 14, button (tight old guy) calls.

Cutoff is LAG/Maniac when losing, but button definitely has a good hand...I'm fairly certain that if I raise, cutoff will shove...not sure what button will do if it's another 65 to him. Also, I have to contend with bb/straddle who could wake up with hands - neither one will make a squeeze here.

So do I raise to 40-50, or just call?

Given your descriptions this is very close to a toss up.

Cutoff's raise is enough you can't get odds to set mine, it's either fold or shove. Look at an equity calculator and stick some estimates of ranges in to get an idea where you stand. Generally in this type of situation button has the highest equity and should call, but he doesn't know what your exact hand is. He likely folds the bottom end of his range, it's those hands you really make money on. When button does call it depends on ranges but it's probably going to be around break even.

With 80 Eff, I think I'm shoving (I don't know why we'd ever raise to 40-50 if effective stacks are 80 unless perhaps we were trapping and even then I probably wouldn't)

Even if Button is tight, he's probably 3 betting at least QQ+, AKo+, if he knows CO is a LAG. That means with the call he probably has some broadways and say 77-JJ. He might fold a lot of the broadways and even give you respect and fold TT, possibly even JJ.

I'm slam-dunk shoving this every single time with 50BB given description of CO .

You're out of position. You have terrible odds to set-mine. You have 50BB which gives you absolutely 0 post flop maneuverability in a cash game. Its 6 handed.

The only real thing I would worry about is BB waking up with a hand, or BTN being aware of CO tendencies and trapping. Can't be scared of monsters under the bed.

Standard shove readless and reads make more of a shove. I'm only shoving or folding from the SB facing a raise 20 straddles deep.

Maybe if you have like 66 the discussion is more interesting.

Well, I just called.

bb came along as did straddle.

Flop came K 10 2, rainbow.

I checked, Bb bet $2. Yes, $2 into a $60 pot. Not unusual.

Raiser shoved, button snap called. Obviously, I fold. Bb whines and folds reluctantly.

Raiser shows AQ, button AK. BB had 10-9.

Turn 10, river 9.

It's hard sometimes playing with weekend duffers!

I know you’re just making light of it here but it’s not hard. You’re 40bb effective, the. With the straddle you’re actually playing closer to 20bb. 99 is a fist pumping high five the dealer shove over the 3 blinds and the small open. Often you stack up 25% without a fight. In this actual hand you triple up at least (AK & AQ are both calling). It’s not the duffers who were the problem in this hand.

Well, maybe in a casino.

However, in a social game where people play every week for years (10 and counting), you get to know most of their moves.

I have zero fold equity here...the button could easily have me crushed with 1010 or JJ (probably would have raised with QQ-AA).

Don't I want to get the BB and Straddle to call 14 with crappy hands (which they did)? I'm 7-1 to flop a set, and with those two calling I'm getting 5-1 already assuming no implied odds...I know I'll get at least $65 more from someone if i hit a nine (or three under cards come)...

It so happened that their holdings (AQ/AK) were just about the best situation for me odds wise...factor in a bunch of different holdings, and I'm probably right around 33-35% against these two on average...

Is winning poker getting it in with tiny margins or even odds?

LOL. This makes no sense. Folding 99 because V is nutted is fine. Calling or min raising is a clear loser.
1) Having no fold equity is fine. You have a range Advantage.
2) If you already know the answer, why did you post? Asking for a friend.
3) if you flop an over pair and get it in, aren’t you still losing to TT/JJ?

Yes winning poker is getting it in with tiny margins. Yes. 100% yes. Bad players, scared players and losing players ‘wait for a better spot’.

You don’t appear to know why you called or why you should raise.

Also, in the game with no FE do you 7x stuff AA and KK because of no FE or down bet to ‘keep them in’?

No...I'll ship it and get called.

Poker might be a game of tiny edges at the high end professional level, but in a home game with a bunch of very predictable players, it isn't...it's about getting it in when you've got a nice juicy advantage.

If everyone is predictable, what is your question? Are you just complaining that you would have rivered a set and are looking for sympathy?

Or you’re actually still wondering if call or raise to $40-50 is the right action? You said $80-100 effective. When you make it $40-50 and go 3 ways to the flop, the pot will be $200 with $30 behind???. What’s your move on the flop? Please tell me you think it depends on the flop.....

Are there any open seats in this game?

I don't understand why you're compaining about shoving been an option since raising to more than half the effective stack was one of your original options? Were you planning on doing that and folding to the 30 more to get it in????

If you're comfortable with your call decision, then why are you posting?

Don't we need to know both CO's and BTN's stack sizes? It sounds like one of them has 80 and we cover everybody. One of them being deep would change this a lot.

If one has 80 and the other has 100, definitely a slam dunk shove pre.

Not looking for sympathy...based on the responses on this thread, I don't think many people play in social home games with the same people for years on end...it is a different game than the casino.

I've shoved in similar situations with 99, and am probably breakeven at best over time. The reason I posted is because I really don't know the correct way to play it...it seems to be a trouble hand that is too strong to fold and too weak to shove. And calling doesn't seem right either.

There doesn't have to be a super great/super profitable option. If you are break even or better shoving this spot than its probably the best choice. There is value in having 99 in your jam range that you're not considering.

Many of us play in reg heavy games that have many of the same aspects you’re noting in you home game. And many of us are very profitable player with multi-decade track records. 99 at 40-50bb after a ‘normal’ open from a non-OMC is a shove. Print money, easy game.

Learned a new term...OMC! Thanks

Question then: How does the button (borderline OMC) call affect my decision?

I would have snap shoved had he not called, but from what people on this board are saying, I should be doing that anyway even though he called.

Depends on what you think his flatting range is and what his shove calling range is. With AK will he flat the $14 and fold to a shove or would he call a shove? What about QQ-AA, or would he have 3b these to start with? Normally people flat the $14 because they want to see a flop before they ‘commit’. For $14 w/ $80 effective you’re really not getting the odds to set mine so if you think CO is nutted, fold the 9’s. If you said V flatted the $14 and you folded because V’s range is only QQ+ then people would say nice exploit fold. Probably is V’s range is surely wider than QQ+, you DO have fold equity and 99 is a strong hand.

Hard to say what he has...but it is a pocket pair or two big cards 100% of time...when villain makes $14, it means very little as his range is huge, and everyone knows it. They also know that he will be very aggressive post flop...so implied odds are decent.

I know many have said that paying $14 to set mine (like I did) doesn't make sense...but with $35 in pot, two players to act (both of whom are likely to call), they'll be around $70 in pot preflop. Knowing someone will pay me off for another $65 if I hit my set (villain, or another, will shove 99% of time regardless of flop), I'll be betting $14 to win say at least $120 (70+65 less my 14)...which is better than 7-1.

Perhaps.

But this doesn't count the times you make a set and still lose.

Also doesn't count whatever the effect on you results will be now that you are $14 shorter when you miss most of the time.

Also doesn't count what you might do if it's raised behind you.

Also doesn't count whatever modest fold equity you might be giving up by not shoving.