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99 on a Paired Board 99 on a Paired Board

07-27-2017 , 09:57 PM
NL 1/2 NWI
Villain is well-known to Hero. He is a good player with a lot of gamble. He's winning big tonight. Stack is $800.
Hero is only at 150 and gets 99 on the button.
Villain is UTG and limps. MP limps also. Cutoff raises to 12.
I call as do the UTG and MP.
Pot is 51.
Flop 10104
UTG bets 20. MP and cutoff fold.
Hero calls. Pot is now 91.
Turn 6
Villain bets $50. Hero??? Do you think I'm beat here most times with 99?
99 on a Paired Board Quote
07-27-2017 , 10:03 PM
What are CO's tendencies? I could definitely get behind a 3-bet pre.

Fold turn. He isn't donk spazzing into 3 people. There aren't even any semi-bluffs he could have.
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07-27-2017 , 10:05 PM
At the turn it was heads up, 3 betting cutoff would have worked i think. He's a spewtron but respects me as a nit. He folded to my 2 pair (KJ) earlier in the night. He had TP0kicker but spend several minutes contemplating a call.
99 on a Paired Board Quote
07-27-2017 , 10:07 PM
Right, I meant he isn't donk leading the flop into 3 people as a spaz bluff if your read of him as a good player is accurate, although the limp UTG is suspect.
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07-27-2017 , 10:18 PM
i was really left wondering if i should have folded here. I thought "this guy probably doesn't have a 10. He limped and he wouldn't do that with 10s or higher including AK so what did he have?" I thought maybe he was doing it with 66s or 55s. How many people would do that? I think the fold is correct 70% of the time or more but i don't know for certain.
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07-28-2017 , 01:31 AM
Now let’s talk bluntly. In any poker game, being limit or NL, you absolutely can’t win, no matter how smart you are and no matter how well you play, if you don’t get good cards and good flops. But it’s also true that even running head-on against villain's luck, the expert player will cut down his losses and lose less money than the average dude would on the very same cards in the same situations (reciprocality*). I may lose on my TPTK on bad boards but the lost will end on the flop while the average tourist will lose double my amount or even more. I see entire stacks going in the middle with TPTK when the lead has been taken away from the pf raiser and the process of building the pot has begone.

By my experience I think the most money are lost here in Vegas on TP hands. Some time ago I did a little study on my iPhone-Notes and kept track of the amounts of $$-pots lost with flopped TP that got to the river unimproved. Huge amounts, huge sums of money that got accumulated over the course of 5-6 hours of play. Unbelievable .. how much money are lost here in the desert during a weekend on TP and some OP too unless the OP know what the hell he's doing..

*Reciprocality is the difference between you and your villain that affects your results. Reciprocality says that when you and your villain would play the same way the same hand in a situation, no money change hands, and when you do something different, it does over the long run. I think this is coming from Tommy Angelo in some article or book or somewhere if I'm not mistaken. ...., or it may be Sklansky when he's talking about the GAP concept and also introduced the Reciprocality in TOP? - one of the two did it .. wtf !.. my head is spinning, I just got home from the fish tank maintenance mechanic PT job (LOL)

Last edited by outdonked; 07-28-2017 at 01:54 AM.
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07-28-2017 , 01:52 AM
His bet sizes are really throwing me. I don't know if he's masterfully going for value or betting scared. The flop donk is mighty small. The turn bet is barely over half pot too. Weird line by villain.

If I'm to assume read is correct of UTG being a good player, then I need to know what he thinks of you. If he thinks you're like MP and CO who will fold when they miss a flop like this then I think it increases the chances he's doing this with 55-88. If he respects your game then I'd expect him to turn those hands into check/call instead of put out a less than half pot bet donk style while being in nut worst position.

Also, you mention villain is well known to you. Is he putting you AI on the river if you flat turn with the PPs you're beating or air hands like AK or do you expect him to put on the brakes? If you flat pot is 193 and you only have 68 behind. Even if you suspect he only puts you AI with hands that beat you you'd be getting great odds to call.

I'd fold probably. Turn bet is comitting for stacks and I think there are better spots if read is right
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07-28-2017 , 02:06 AM
I would of 3bet BTN with 99 at 75bb vs a CO open and 2 limps to $40.

people at that stake rarely 4bet jam the correct range so you can probably even fold if he 4bets you.
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07-28-2017 , 03:08 AM
Yeah I folded here. I thought he had a smaller pair but his bet made me think he may have had J10 or something. I folded and he flashed me 77. I felt sick. I'm not sure why but his line was pretty goofy and a bit spewish to me. I wanted to ask all of you though about it.
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07-28-2017 , 03:10 AM
the 3 bet just isn't part of my game with 99. I have lost a lot of money being passive and need to improve
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07-28-2017 , 03:42 AM
Grunch

Call flop. Call turn. Reassess river. It's highly unlikely this guy is donking flop with 44 or Tx. He should have enough 88/77 that is hoping to take it down on the flop when his equity is likely highest.
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