Hand happened last night at a 2/5 game.

Villian: never seen him before. Seems to be opening a lot in late position and 3! quite often.

i observed one hand early where he raised to $35 out of the Sb after 3 limpers. Flop came A 6 A he bet and got called. Turn came a Q and it went check check. River came a 10 and again it went check check. He turned over KJ off for a straight.

Villain saw me play one hand and stacked. I opened Q10 int he cutoff to 15, got two callers. Cbet 40 on a 893 flop. Got one caller. Turn was a 6, checked to me and i bet 95. Villain called. River was a 5 checked to me, i shoved my last 185 and got snap called by the nut flush.

On to the hand

Effective stacks are 500 villain covers.

There is a $10 straddle UTG, folds to villain in the cutoff who opens to 35. Hero looks down at 99 and 3! to 85. I 3! here because villain has a very wide range here, a lot of the times i can either take it down here or on the flop. Villain probably views us as a tight player have played very few hands and the one hand i showed down was a flush (see above).

Villain tanks for a minute and calls.

Flop: (~180 after rake) QJ 5

Villain checks, i cbet 90. I think a bet here is mandatory, it hits my 3! range hard, some sets AK occasionally 2 pair. Villain thinks for a little bit and calls.

Turn (~360) 2 This card puts another flush draw out there. Villain checks. Hero thinks about betting again but decided villain is calling here, possibly has a hand such as AJ although i don't know if hes calling a 3! with this. He could have a pair below 9s but im not too sure he calls the flop with these hands.

River (~360) 2 Obviously not the greatest card in the deck, the flush comes in but other than that not much has changed. Villain now leads out for 200

Hero???



Thoughts on all streets appreciated

Remove the spoiler imo. I think I could also find a call here, what combos of flush can he have? Doubt he calls with ATss, AKss is gii, you havethe 9s so he can't have 89ss or 9Tss... i'd expect KQ/AQ to donk the turn a lot and AJ to bluffcatch river, he represents nothing and is trying to fold your a high.

(Haven't read the spoiler. Don't put results in Op. Read the stickies to find out why.)

Fold. I'd think a bluff would be higher, so it smells like a value bet, and we don't beat any kind of value hand. Any Q, J, 2, or flush kills us.

(Hate the river shove in the flush hand btw.)

There is $315 in the pot on the river, he has $185 left. What bet is better and why?

At first I thought the shove was mandatory, but the more I thought about it, the more I can see a case for checking back river against an unknown, because we block a lot of straights and worse flushes.

In order to be called by worse, we need villain to
a) call us with one pair (I don't think this is likely)
b) have chased a straight draw on flop and turn with T7 or 75, with three hearts out OTT (also unlikely IMO)
c) have 2pair/sets that didn't raise the wettest flop & turn imaginable for protection
d) have a smaller flush. So if villain has a flush, he has all Ax, Kx, and 75, which beat us (maybe he raises some of these pre), and Jx, 7x, and 54/53 that we beat.

There's enough I beat that I still shove river I think, but depending on the opponent checking is not as obviously bad as it might appear.

Just like everything else in poker, the river is a math problem. What's in his range and what does he do with the various parts of his range?

If he raises 1/3rd of hands and calls your 3-bet 100% of the time you're not ahead on the flop.

Board: Qs Js 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.844% 49.58% 00.27% 164424 882.50 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 50.156% 49.89% 00.27% 165461 882.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

lol how do you HATE the river shove in the prior hand? Every street in that hh is perfect, imho.


OP:

I think that pre is kinda interesting, I think I would make it more, but IP, your sizing is probably better in the long term. Flop is fine, I still probably bet a little bit more, but meh. River a spot where on paper a call isn't all that great, but you seem to have a better read than anyone on here ever could, so it's not really much of a discussion (at least imo). The small sizing on prior streets probably widens up his FPS range, so I'd feel more inclined to call because of it, but again, that's not necessarily a good thing.

/shrug.

It's a close cbet otf iMo w us shoving riv w our qthh .
Riv can't comment results may cloud judgement