Bellagio 1/3, Effective stacks right around 300.

I'm in LoJack with 99 and raise to 12. Button who is a clueless newbie and who is playing about 50% of his hands calls on the button and the BB who is a 22 yr. old reg who is pretty spewy calls as well. I'm pretty sure my image is pretty taggy as I've only shown down winning hands after stacking two shortstacked fish, once with AA (which was against the drooler on the button) and once with QQ.

($34)Flop:
673

BB checks, I bet $21, both players call.

($96)Turn:
8 which gives me the openender, overpair and spade blocker. BB checks, I bet $60, BTN calls and BB folds.

($216)River:
J Now what? my options as I see it:

1. Check. Most noobs are only going to bet strong hands on the river and check beck 2pr hands and worse so if he bets a large amount I can easily fold. Obviousy straight is unlikely since I block those but this guy can easily have lots of 2 pair hands in his range. 45 is a distant possibility but highly unlikely.

2. Bet big for value, maybe $100.

3. Blocking bet of about $40. Noobs usually just confused and call with big hands here and if they raise it's an easy fold.

I'm really in between a c/c (for a reasonable amount) or a b/f line.

Against someone playing 50% of hands and (pretty much) all draws missed with your blocker I would b/f 60-65.

+1. I was going to say the exact same thing.

What is villains range when he calls flop and turn? Without this its virtually impossible to tell you what you should do here. Just guess at what you think it could be...TP on the flop?

At the time I put his range as a 6 or 7 on flop with the other card being some sort of straight draw, so 65, 75, 67, 68, 78, A7, A6. one of the aces could be sooted in spades cuz he picks up a FD on the turn so sticks around. It's also possible he has something like TT-QQ or 55. On the turn he easily could've run into 2 pair or picked up a flush draw with a couple of those hands. Since he's inexperienced I ruled out all random floats and put him on at least one pair. $60 on the turn should fold out all one pair hands so that's why on the river I was unsure as to what to do figuring he has 2pair+.

Well if you think he has 2 pr this seems like a trivial check/fold....he is never folding better than 99 if he is as inexperienced as you say

I think it's the right play. Bart Hanson says bad players aren't capable of betting for thin value so if he bets river it's an easy fold. If I bet, the only hand I could possibly see him calling with that I beat is As7s but any decent player would fold that.

If we had AK here, everyone would be saying not to bluff in this spot because we won't have the FE vs a "clueless newbie". This means that betting the river can't be that bad against this guy, altho we're far from "proving" that betting the river is better than check/evaluating with the intention of usually folding, but if you bet the right amount I can't see this guy folding ANY pair here, which brings me back to another question:

You're really putting this guy on 2pair+ after he calls your turn bet? Seems way to pessimistic too me. A lot of players, even clueless ones will raise the turn with 2pair+ on that drawy board (or they'll a least raise a portion of that range, thus allowing us to eliminate some hands). Of course clueless players may not think that way......Have you seen this guy call the turn with monsters on drawy boards in the past?

Bottom line: I suspect this guy has a lot of one pair hands in his range on the river. He's loose preflop, he'll call that flop with any pair probably, he didn't raise the turn which has to weaken his range significantly, and every pair+straight draw and every pair+FD missed on the river except for J7 (going with the dubious assumption that this guy folds J3 preflop in this spot).

Also, it sounds like vs this guy we can make a highly exploitable blocking bet (knowing he won't bluff raise), say around the same size as your turn bet, confidently knowing he won't fold ANY pair here. But I'm also open to the idea of betting around half pot here under the same assumptions as above: This guy's range is decently wide and he won't fold any pair here on this board. Either way, in this spot, I probably bet $60 on the river and feel good about it.

^^
Yeah I like that $60 on the river. It gets value from a lot of hands in his range - A7,A6,56,57,89,8T, etc...

^^^
My line of thinking in the hand was basically the same as ILOVEPOKER, that he won't fold decent one pair hands to a river bet, so I did in fact put out a blocking/value bet on river for $45.

I still think the $60 bet on turn should fold out most of those one pair hands that could call the river though. Also top pair on the flop is now third pair and even noobs need to be a little scared by the river although I've seen all sorts of bottom/fourth pair calldowns plenty of times.

A lot of "clueless" players still play the AK game (I.E. put you on AK and keep calling if they can beat that). Your $60 turn bet of just over 60% of the pot wasn't that big imo (I wouldn't assume it's gonna eliminate his 1pair range). Although I suppose what really matters is how your turn bet is perceived by the clueless player, something you will know more about than me. I can only say that I suspect this villain is sticking around without a lot of that 1pair range.

True, that's why we size our river bet to the small side, to make calling with that range irresistible for this type of player.

Overall I think you played the hand well.

bet more on the flop and turn

check turn

Definitely bet more on all streets vs clueless stations. I would be 95 on the river too.

If the 5 players left to act behind us preflop are some pretty poor players, I'm pretty fine open limping this hand. Otherwise, I'm cool with opening it here in lateish postion. I probably raise more to have a better chance at narrowing the field. The more droolerish the field, the more I'm fine with seeing a cheap flop and getting the money in postflop when I hit.

I'm fine with the flop.

I probably check the turn. 2 other players are interested in this hand, so I think it is fine to consider slowing down on the turn. Plus it would suck to get raised off our draw. Plus there is two pair / set / straight written all over this board. I would check/evaluate, and then go for one more street of value on the river if no action breaks out.

Another reason for not betting the turn is look at the pickle we've gotten ourselves into. We now only have a ~PSB left on the river, OOP, with a very weak holding (just a meek overpair on the turn, which is now 2nd pair on the river). This is not a great spot to be in.

As played, I'd probably choose the last option, of betting small (so we can get some value from weak hands) / folding to a raise. But note that bet/folding with only a PSB left ain't great, so we really should be trying to avoid these spots.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Bet $55 on the river to ensure you get called by worse like 7x and 8x.

I like a small bet for value. As said a bunch above, this guy is never bluff raising us and seems likely to be calling with most pairs for a reasonable amount. I also really like what IlovePoker has to say about a lot of 2pair+ hands being filtered out by him not raising the turn. I think you played the hand fine until this point and a smaller bet on the river certainly does not lose you money here.