I read the first 2 pages and some of the comments are lol wow. Most of you got it. This is a fist pump raise or shove here. The only reason it wouldn't be is if this is a large % of your roll (you aren't rolled for this game) or you are rolled but you can't mentally handle the variance in this kind of game. This is a very high variance table and if you can't deal with that or aren't rolled properly you need to leave.

99 against this player is a near nutted hand pre. Shove for FE and we might be flipping vs 2 overs or possibly have her crushed. V2s flat was like a $100 donation. Thank him dearly for that. Is he ever flatting TT+ vs described Vs $100 blind open? More than likely he is just tired of never being able to see a flop and probably got dealt J10s, KQ,AJ etc. and wants to see a flop. I wouldn't believe he would flat TT+ here against someone who will get it in with 76. If so he is lolbad. Shove to get him to fold and hop on the variance express with maniac lady.

Wait sun so you're saying 99 is only slightly +EV vs ATC?

Sorry just read the last 2 pages. I don't know how you get a bet size tell on someone who raises blind. Her range is literally ATC. I'm in the camp of V2 being wider than TT+ AK here. I'm 3b or shoving here as long as I can handle the variance.

I actually like V2s call. It feels like he could have blockers to some of maniacs outs if she does wake up with 2 overs and decides to call our shove

Assuming hero is 20% vs V2 + V1, we're looking at:

.20(1500), EV = -$200

We're 72.1% vs unknown V1 for $300.

.72(600), EV = +$132

In other words, in order for us to come out even, all we need for EV of first $500 investment to be -$132, which means our equity must be 24.5% to be EV neutral. Please feel free to check my math.

In other words, if we have 24.5% equity vs V1 + V2 in this spot, and we know that V1 is shoving blind, then we're GOOOOOOOOOOOOD.

And to give you an idea what 24.5% equity means:

We are 27.8% vs...

V1: JJ+, AKo/AKs
V2: ATC

you really have to jump through a lot of flaming hoops mostly concerning v2, just to get to a minorly +ev result:

-v2 must be a loose fish capable of flatting hands like QJ/77 in this spot.

-if v2 is a fish (based only the on fact he stacked off light with 50bb), he must not tighten up now that he has 100bb.

-the $100 raise (instead of 30-65) from maniac must mean nothing about her range or she has to have not looked at her cards (OP wasn't watching).

-v2 must be capable of folding some hands to our raise. even so, our raise comes with a cost since it takes initiative from the maniac.

in this spot, incorrect assumptions hurt us to a much higher degree than correct assumptions help us. if you weight the relevant ev's by the probability that your assumptions are actually correct, it'll probably come out to -ev overall.

(im sure OP is just raging because v2 showed up with 88, maniac had 76 or something)

[ If OP said he was 100% certain that V1 did not look at her cards, this is a backflip fist pump shove. OP said "I'm 95% sure this is blind, but I wasn't really paying attention." Which sounds like 0% certain to me.

I'm not a soul reader, I put my stock in pattern recognition and extrapolating from those patterns in order to figure out how people play their lines and assign them ranges. Both players broke pattern on this hand. I think there are far too many variables in this hand for anyone to 'prove' their point.

However, I think this is a great thread, and has provided me some insight on how to get FPSy with JJ+ when sandwiched between a whale and a 2+2er.

Just reread the previous posters post.

I think this is the best 'pearl of wisdom' in the thread.

So, once again, I'd like to reiterate, that I was watching her, but I was also watching the rest of the table, so I'm only mostly positive that she didn't look.
But even if she did look, I'm surprised how many people think this is a premium only.

When she 3bets 76o, and eventually gets it in pre flop for 105BB is this not enough of a read here? So clearly she can 3bet super wide, but we think that (weather she looked or not) when she opens big that her range has to be super strong?

She clearly over values small pocket pairs. (As in the 44 vs AJ hand, since she gets it in 52/48 at best, and sometimes 18/82.) So I've no doubt that she could be over valuing 44-88 type hands here.
What about her open shipping with K2s UTG for $80? Clearly she's here to gamble. It's not like that was her last money and it was a last ditch effort to make something happen, she simply reloaded and started going at it again.

I don't know the right answer which is why I posted the hand. Just some food for thought.

Re: V2
My read on V2 was the he was pretty conflicted as to what he wanted to do. He was either a great actor (unlikely) or truly had a hard decision to make (as to flat or fold). But I'm not sure what sort of range that makes him more or less likely to have.

My thoughts at the time were 66-JJ, AQs-ATs, AJo, AQo, KQs?

I have clearly stated that if we have 72% equity vs V1 for the side pot of $600 and 24.5% equity vs both V1 and V2 for the main pot of $1500, we don't need to worry about anything else.

I'm ready for the results...

Let me guess, u over called and proceded to lose the pot to v2 post flop?

This thread is off the ****ing rails IMO...like full blown AIDS.

I don't really know what to say except I think you are looking at this exactly backwards. The hoop that needs to be jumped through is that Villain 2 in a matter of 12 hands has properly adjusted to Villain 1 opening ATC.

LOL at the bet sizing tell you guys are harping on. OP says he is 95% certain she didn't even look. I mean my god what do you want? We all agree not knowing this 100% is criminal but this is what we go on.

I think that one hand appears to show that V2 is a fish. If it was a one off weird hand then OP needs to address that but that is the only actual HH/read we have. Now this same fishtard is suddenly some wizard and tarping with premiums because he knows that everyone else knows that V1 is opening light...lol is this real life?

Oh and someone mentions that V1 has now adjusted to her image and is opening larger with premiums. FFS how do you get there given the OP's description? This person is gamboool gamboool. That's it.

Of course, incorrect assumptions hurt us. But that is what poker is.

Stop assigning ******ed ranges and attributing great adjustments to ****ty players and you might actually increase your win rates. Will there be some ****ty variance. Yes but that is a function of game selection and BRM not playing this dumb game.

Read RP's calcs...I'm far too disinterested in doing anymore math to prove this case but he has done it. If we don't have 24% equity in the main pot then **** me I quit this game.

Okay - so to recap:

V1 is an action junkie who prefers to go AI when she's the aggressor:
V2 has been somewhat quiet in the last 30 minutes, hasn't raised in the last 20 hands or so. But he flats V1's $100 PFR.

Hero's in the CO with 99

So we can assume that if Hero 3!, lady will most likely shove.
If we shove, V1 is probably not calling without a premium hand.
Unsure what V2 will do... but after putting in 1/5 of his stack PF, it doesn't look like we have any FE.

So your choice is to GII pre-flop with medium pocket pair and hope your hand holds up
OR
call and play perfect poker

I don't understand why this isn't an insta-call.

Easy fold Pre

Go back to plo

Regardless of what I think the right choice is:

What do you define as play perfect post flop?

What are we doing on a 732r board when she bets out?
What about a T62r board?
What about a AAA board?

Are we just set mining? What boards do you play on? What boards are you folding on?
I'm pretty much assuming if we flat pre flop, she betting every flop. Like every one. She gets her stack in on 40% of pots pre flop or post flop. So, what exactly is perfect play on any board that doesn't have a 9 in it?

It scares me a lot that you are only 95% sure this is blind, it is crucial to know if this is a blind raise or not.

Really OP. Time for results. This thread is tilting now.

Results are super boring.

I'll wait a little bit longer in case anyone else wants to chime in.
Then I'll throw them out there.

Thread will be locked soon so don't wait too long.

I realize this is a fistpump how fast can I get it in situation, but we can play this perfectly by calling in position if we are legitimately confused by v2's call.

I agree with BW's earlier comment: "What does playing perfectly mean?", w/r/t this HH.

Are you just looking for an 8 high flop? Making a set?

RP showed that as long as V2's range includes something other then only TT+ (e.g. AK), and V1 continues, we have enough equity to GII preflop. Therefore, even on an A-high flop, we can never fold so long as V1 is still in the hand.

I'm curious what you mean by "play perfectly".

Yeah, good questions.
I'm not set mining. And unless V2 shoves against her flop bet - I'm playing almost any board. (Remember, we haven't defined our hand yet - so we can represent anything we want.)

Basically - I think it's better to play poker than roulette.
Nobody said playing poker was easy.

We've got position. AND one other player is still in the hand.
Don't know if that will slow her down - but it should give you answers to whether or not you think you're good.

If she bets and V2 folds - then you can play poker... call, raise or fold.
If she bets and V2 calls or shoves, it's a lot tougher.

I play against hyper aggros and maniacs in my games a lot. Sometimes I'll just call to the river. Other times I check raise them. And other times I shove. Depends on how wet the board is and how Vs respond to my calling or betting.

Sometimes I'm right. Other times I get owned.

Since poker is a game of imperfect information; the reads, tells, bet sizing and tendencies of your Vs are what you have to go by.

If you'd rather get it all in preflop with no idea where you're at, then by all means repop her and expect a shove. But against her and V2, 99 is going to have to dodge a LOT of bullets to produce results.

Position means NOTHING in this hand. We are 99.999% certain she's betting the flop (most likely shoving) if H has anything behind once flop hits.

Point 2, it's like you haven't even read the thread or looked at the ranges produced by others.

What do you plan to represent here? What do you expect to push her off when we have a worse hand than hers? I fully expect if I flat, her whole stack is going to go into the center by the end of the hand it's just matter of whether or not I'm still in the hand when it does.


So, let me give you a few concrete examples that maybe you can comment on.

If the board is 772, you are calling/getting it in, or folding when she bets the flop?
If the board is AJ3, you are calling/getting it in or folding?
If the board is Q62, you are calling/getting it in or folding?



The entire point of ranging a villain is to give them a range, evaluate our equity against that range, and then make the most informed choice. If we range her to be able to call with hands that constitute a range that we are ahead of, then it doesn't matter if we have to dodge any number of outs. We still got it in good.
We might not win, but that doesn't really matter.

In the AKo vs 76o hand I don't go into the hand thinking 'man I've got no idea where I am, I've got so many cards to dodge'. I gave her a range, I acted on it, and then we dealt the cards out when I was ahead of her range. So, that's the whole point here pre flop, decide what her range is.