V is a MAWG of about 40. Readless other than that as pretty early in the session and I have no experience playing him. It seems like he plays a fair amount though, in that he's comfortable handling chips and being at the table.

$1/$3 (lowest stakes at my casino)

V opens LJ to $15. Hero calls with 99 in the BB.

Flop: T74 ($31)
Hero check/calls $25.

Turn: 5 ($81)
Hero check/calls $50.

River: 3 ($181)
Hero checks, V goes all-in for $156.

I'd fold. Unless he was bluffing with 2 overs you're beat by everything. Your hand also blocks his semibluffs which makes it an even easier laydown

I fold turn. The card helps your range more than his yet he continues betting... spooky stuff


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Given no information on villain I would fold flop or fold turn. There is already one overcard on the board and you have no idea how far you should call down. Folding flop all the time is a little two weak but I would get out while it's cheap.

3B pre.

Fold turn.

Turn is a fold

Buttt if i got to river like this i might call. Mawg’s don’t typically bet for thin value enough and check back these runouts w/o sets or str8’s... how likely does he have either here? so i could be swayed to cawl it off, its def read dependent tho. Usually just fold

This. With only a 6 needed for a straight and plenty of 6's in your range, combined with the fact that Mawgs aren't usually betting this thin for value, I think I get curious and call.

But I do think I would have folded turn.

86 is a double gutter that hit on the turn.

+1 to 3! pre and fold turn

He probably assumes we have at least Tx, and he still barreled the turn on a card that most likely didn't help him. It's not the worst thing in the world to float the turn but def folding the river.

Preflop is kinda weird. We have a hand that is strong enough not to just setmine as it could be good UI, and it will flop ok some of the time (like with just one overcard). At the very least it's a lot stronger than a much smaller pair which will almost always flop horribly and is less likely to be good UI (I'd actually fold small pairs here). But at the same time, we'll be playing an unknown HU OOP without initiative; definitely unlikely to be profitable with a much smaller pair, but with this one, probably profitable. I guess we could think of 3betting, but I'm actually pretty cool with the flat.

I'm pretty cool with just check/calling the flop. Good chance our hand is still good but it's mediocre and we're not looking to build a huge pot. We're basically hoping our opponent gives up on the turn, and honestly, a lot will UI.

I probably think of giving up on the turn. This might not be the last bet we face so we're really going to have to have a river plan if we call again. It might be a little weak sauce, but we can't just end up playing huge pots with extremely mediocre hands; sometimes it's just best to give up now and hope the majority of these hands we get will be in position.

River bet looks fairly polarized since the OESD on the turn got there. I mean, AA/etc. is autochecking back here and hoping they win the pot. So this is either complete air hoping to barrel us off the hand, or some 6x hand that go there. Even hands as strong as TT might consider just checking back here. The thing is, overall, very few opponents are capable of 4barrelling air, which is why I'd mostly lean to a fold even at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

i wouldn't 3bet pre. x/c flop is good and prob x/f turn vs described player.

If we don't 3! this, what are we doing 80% of the time there's an overcard on the flop? Folding? Hoping to check it down and set mining along the way?
Calling down for a random number of streets and then folding?

+1 for the 3! camp.

I'm guessing a lot of opponents shut down after being called on the flop, which typically gets us to the river where we'll have a decision then (but by then we've seen all 5 cards and know if we've setted up / how many bad cards have fallen). And by just flatting we've kept the pot manageable, whereas if we 3bet we are building a monster pot OOP where we'll often flop horrible.

It's certainly not a great spot, and a big reason why I would fold preflop with smaller pairs OOP (not really sure what my cutoff would be here, but 99 falls on one side of it for me).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flatting pre leaves you in no mans land for the rest of the hand, playing a total guessing game.
You can't just check call "safe" flops and hope the turn and river goes check check.

3b pre gives you initiative in the hand which is huge in passive live games, and also allows you to narrow opponents range somewhat.

Our hand will remain mediocre enough that we will end up in no man's land just as often by 3betting, except we'll have put in a ****load more money when we do. Just as flatters can't always hope for the turn to check thru, 3betters can't always hope that the 3bet/cbet gets thru.

Gchosingtheleastsuckyof3suckyoptions,imoG

Yeah I get your point. None of the options are that great. I just think flatting is gona be the rockiest road to go down, you can't discount any hands from opponents range. The flop could come down 652 and you can't discount 2pr or a straight, where as a 3b gives you a bit more clarity in the hand which is never a bad thing.

Fold flop OOP. If you were in position this would probably not happen.

I don't have the statistics to back it up, because my 3! sample is so extremely tiny, but what I've often noticed is that a 3! will actually slow down the action on the first 2 streets a lot of the time, so getting to the river will be cheaper or just as expensive as a x/c line from hero and bet bet bet line from a villain.

We have to recognize based on V's tendencies, stack depth and table dynamics whether it's going to be possible to keep the pot manageable. Flatting is just 1 part of the equation and it's just not the only sufficient condition to keep the pot small.

OP didn't give us stack depths, but I'm guessing he has V covered and V only has $246 to start the hand, which is pretty damn shallow for my 1/3 games.

The problem with flatting and getting to the turn is that once we call the turn bet, our plan should be prepared to call his river shove and we have no idea about V's range, because a $15 MP open doesn't really narrow it down all that much if V is at all decent.

I actually think with a $45 3! we could have gotten to the turn cheaper, because V would have to enter commitment territory with a c-bet on the flop. Not to mention the fold equity we get preflop.

PTSD Flashbacks to the limping thread a few months ago.

When we don't 3-bet and an overcard comes on the flop we check and evaluate whether or not our hand is strong enough to continue vs. his sizing. Usually we're going to check/call 0-2 streets depending on the runout, maybe bluff x/r sometimes, but it's not random at all.

In this hand the flop is an obvious call and turn and river are close, IMO. We block some of his barrels which isn't good, so I'd probably fold and pick some Tx to call with which don't block backdoor heart draws or straight draws.

On this river it's tempting to call because overpairs and even sets will sometimes freeze up and some players will think this is a good bluff card, even though it isn't.

I'll admit that a large part of my hope barring some really super good flops/turns is that Villain slows down on turn. But if Villain does slow down on turn, we've only invested $40 with a flat / call flop line. If we 3bet to $45 and then cbet a quite small $35 into $90, we'll have put in $80 by the turn (twice as much) and will mostly be in the same spot (hoping he checks).

I'm not totally hating on 3betting preflop cuz there are some benefits to 3betting that flatting doesn't have (ending the hand preflop which is a terrific result, and perhaps ending it on the flop more which is also decent). But it also has drawbacks (much suckier spot if hand isn't over on the flop, as is getting 4bet preflop). I also think in the grand scheme of avoiding huge mistakes, flatting does a better job of this; yeah, we're going to be making a mistake some of the time by folding the flop/turn with the best hand, but overall it's a relatively small mistake and we live to fight another day.

GcluelessNLnoobG

If we don't 3! 99 pre, when do we start 3!? JJ?
If we don't 3! 99, then we don't 3! AQs?
When we set-mine, do we expect to make 11x $15 from a lone V when we flop a set?

If V is aggro post & I never know where I'm at vs. him post-flop & he'll keep firing on a J96r board like he did here, then I'd call pre & fold flop.

Definitely folding river if not turn. What hands would you fold if not 99? Just 89? Maybe 78 but you probably let that go on the turn. If we had a read that V is relentlessly barreling then I could call.

Being exploited in a 1/3 game generally isn't an issue but I think calling three streets here and losing to any overpair, Tx hand is going to make your life real difficult for the next few hours if there are a couple of people paying attention.

I personally would've 3! pre to $50. As played, I like the x/c on the flop. Turn I think is an easy fold, but as played going to the river I'm 100% folding.

I think pre is fine.

I play flop the same.

I fold the turn.

If I called the turn, I probably call river because I don't expect random V to bet with anything but straights here, but he may think river is a good bluff spot with 4 to a straight on board.