Hi all,

1/2 at Mohegan Sun Pocono Plains, PA. In town for World Tavern national tournaments and sat down at cash game. I am playing $200, about average for the table. V1 is playing $140. V2 $150.

V1 MABG on button raises to $14 in straddled pot. He said this was his last hand. His raise size was a tell as previously he'd raised larger with strong holdings. I didn't think he had a premium hand. I have 99 in SB and flat. Straddler flats as well. Pot $39.

Flop: Kh-7s-4c.

We check and BTN bets $25. With just one over card I call. So does straddler. Pot $89.

Turn: Ah. We check and BTN bets $25 again. This bet is so weak that I call again. Straddler folds. Pot $139.

River: 7h. Seems like a good card for our range to represent trips or even backdoor flush, so I bet $65 (BTN has only around $80 behind).

What do you think about this line?

Thanks,
DT

Fold turn, you are crushed here 99% of the time.

Why no 3bet pre?

Your line is fine if he has a fold button and if you are correct about his being weak pre-flop. I doubt he folds an A, though.

2 major reasons you should fold river

1) PFR has range advantage on this board runout.
2) not enough money behind for a credible river shove

3b pre. Fold turn, not close. AP, if he has 80, why do you bet 65? Just put him in, makes no sense. You actually rep nothing with this line, but maybe this is an OK bluff spot because LLSNL players suck at hand reading.

+1 to 3b pre it's basically a textbook spot.

turn smells fishy i'm probably peeling.

don't understand your river bet, what are you trying to get folds from? TT-QQ? i would check/eval.

3 bet pre especially if you think he's weak as you've said.

However, people about to leave who suddenly play a hand are often quite strong. I frequently see people racking up saying "this is my last orbit" then they open some hand and mostly they have like JJ+ AK.

His sizing is weird but all you beat OTT is a bluff or 7x. 7x gets there on the river. Now you just beat a bluff. I would x/f the turn but definitely giving up OTR without a strong read villain is FOS. And if he is...x/c is probably a better line.

Also you should almost never have a 7 cold calling a raise in the SB 100BB deep so I don't know why you think you can convincingly rep trips.

Yeah, pretty much this.

Dumb bluffs sometimes work at LLSNL because V's call based on their hand strength rather than reading our hands. Although I disagree that we rep nothing here, as bottom pair rivered trips and the BDFD came in, and I've seen plenty of V's play both types of hands this way at these stakes.

But your bet sizing is basically begging for a call, and you're pretty much never good if you get one. The only way to bluff this river is to shove and hope your read is right that he is weak.

This should be a turn fold though, especially with a 2nd caller behind you.