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99 535 deep facing shove preflop 99 535 deep facing shove preflop

12-07-2014 , 03:16 AM
I have 99 on the button with 535 and am up for the night.
The UTG shorstack with 105 limps and is a younger player, UTG+2 seems to be a good TAG player who doesn't play many hands raises to 14, the CO calls I call on the button, the BB calls, UTG shoves AI for 105, UTG+2 Villain with about 600 calls, CO folds, I raise to 220, BB folds, UTG+2 pauses a moment looks at me and then calls AI and stares me down.
Do you think UTG+2 has AK in his range close to 100% of the time here? He might have KK+ here but mathematically it is possible that he plays AK in this way. For him 500 may not be a lot of money if he plays 2/5 and his range is wider preflop. If he likes to protect with 162 in the pot he would reraise with QQ+ if he thinks the UTG player's range is weak so I think I should call here...
I had been playing very tight for about 7 sessions at this game but the UTG+2 was a new player who I had no history with. maybe he picked up a cheap tell. anyway after the hand UTG+2 hit and ran
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 03:54 AM
Because of the stare I could put him on ak
But all things considered + the stare + the call off vs
Short stack I put him on kk+ and good acting skills
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 04:20 AM
I would guess his range is KK+ here especially if he narrows his range deep stacked at this 1/3 game. He was discussing MTTs maybe a sign that he plays AK aggressively. I think I should have just folded. but if he is raising with KK+,AK I can call here getting about 2:1

is the stare a clear sign this is AK??
it is difficult playing poker sometimes for food and a living and groceries

Last edited by djohnson13; 12-07-2014 at 04:36 AM.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 04:35 AM
Vs hero a very tight image + he plays tag and is utg

Well if he was a bad actor+ barely competent and never looked at you
Dont call that raise

If he took a long pause then raised dont call that bet(more so bad actor +
Barely competent imo)

Seems like villain is knowledgable enough not to give off tells but possibly
Leverage them

Edit: yes ak is a fairly good hand vs kk but id hate to gii vs kk here personaly but maybe someone will come do some math on gii w ak here w 300+ behind
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 04:45 AM
villain had a semi stare here, he was middle aged and seemed competent to very good and was clean cut and looked like a white collar professional....
villain had AK here and UTG had AA but with such a large side pot I can call here with 99 maybe with the stare

I think taking a long time can be hollywooding with a nutted hand
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 04:57 AM
Competent to very good read
Sounds like player didnt take a fairly long time to shove his hand( could be weak) ak
Player talking live mtt could be weak ~ ak

All reads considered, either way, I should be able to sleep

Edit: nice read..
We have 55% equity vs ak and thats a coinflip
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 05:01 AM
Such a fishy play from UTG. Fold to his limp raise. I think even as big as the pot has gotten you don't have the equity you need to call the all in. You are without a doubt dominated by V1, and you are at best flipping against V2 for the side pot, but dominated most of the time.

What were you trying to accomplish with your reraise?
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 05:14 AM
Oh yea.and in the future never get into this pot again, short stack
Crushes(understatement) any hand we have
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 05:28 AM
So to make the call for the sidepot, you need 36.6 equity in the hand. You believe V2's range is QQ+ and AK. That means you are slightly ahead a little less than half the time and crushed a little more than half the time. Let's say your equity against V2's range is 30%. This means you can't call. However, there's still the main pot. So you only need to make up 6.6% of the side pot in the main pot for this to be a breakeven call. Problem is you are horribly crushed in the main pot. You need $56.76 in equity from the main pot. If we give you a generous 20% equity over there, which is highly unlikely, you are at $66. So you are barely making it, but this is also assuming that your V2 is playing all AK like this and never playing JJ or TT in the same way in which case you're dead. In fact, I think my 20% in the main pot was too high and given the uncertainty of knowing how often AK and the other large pocket pairs are in his range, I believe this is a fold.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 06:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
So to make the call for the sidepot, you need 36.6 equity in the hand. You believe V2's range is QQ+ and AK. That means you are slightly ahead a little less than half the time and crushed a little more than half the time. Let's say your equity against V2's range is 30%. This means you can't call. However, there's still the main pot. So you only need to make up 6.6% of the side pot in the main pot for this to be a breakeven call. Problem is you are horribly crushed in the main pot. You need $56.76 in equity from the main pot. If we give you a generous 20% equity over there, which is highly unlikely, you are at $66. So you are barely making it, but this is also assuming that your V2 is playing all AK like this and never playing JJ or TT in the same way in which case you're dead. In fact, I think my 20% in the main pot was too high and given the uncertainty of knowing how often AK and the other large pocket pairs are in his range, I believe this is a fold.
Thanks for math
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 03:19 PM
Fold to the shove + call. This is far too large of a hill to climb.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:31 PM
Yes that is the right play. Just out of curiosity if I raise here and the UTG+2 flats and misses I can cbet and win 220 but this was completely incorrect he didn't flat, he went AI after looking at me.

UTG+2 has to calculate both his equity vs UTG and my range and the sidepot and as a default he may fold or just flat my raise

UTG said after the hand that with 60 of dead money in the pot he would shove with 88, I don't know if I believe him, did I just hit the top of his range?

Last edited by djohnson13; 12-07-2014 at 10:44 PM.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:39 PM
The reason you don't want to raise is because if utg2 happens to fold you just took gasoline
To your money... and because of the slightest chance he may fold
We dont want to raise
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:42 PM
His range is very nutted because he doesn't isolate V1 imo. I fold after he calls the limp raiser, as played I also fold.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-07-2014 , 11:09 PM
Not at all worried about UTG+2's range. Probably just fold to the $105 AI just because we're dominated so often by the l/rr range of a readless shortstacker.

If we had any reason to think UTG is doing this wide, then we should shove when the action is on us.

Then again no reads were provided for anyone, so hard to say what UTG+2's range is either, but posters are being pretty MUBS to put him on a hand that calls our shove any more than once-in-a-blue-moon.

EDIT: Oooooooooh fart, I'm the worst at misreading action. Just noticed UTG+2 is the TAG original PFR. Yeah, just fold to the $105 all-in. You're lucky if you're not in 3rd place at this point.

Last edited by surviva316; 12-07-2014 at 11:17 PM.
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote
12-09-2014 , 08:18 PM
Not following your thought process at all on this hand...

Just fold to the $105....what do you plan on representing with a re-raise after already flatting the original raiser?? He has you crushed...

Fold...
99 535 deep facing shove preflop Quote

      
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