6pm Sunday afternoon, 1/2, 7 handed

Table has been very tight since I sat down 40 mins ago, we have not seen many flops.

Hero (£500) - Played couple of hands in position, raised + Cbet + take down. No show in all hand

V (£460) - Eastern European reg in mid 30s, he has been playing tight last couple of months probably due to bad runs. Over last couple of months, I have seen him involved in big pots hitting top set and rivered FH, to only beaten by quads and 3bet large with AA OOP then limper hitted set and he stacked off. A really solid player, almost never slow play.

Hero has 89in CO

Folded to Hero raised to £10, V called on BTN, SB + BB folded

Flop (£23)

TQ6

I thought this is a great flop for me, if I hit my hand will be very well disguised.

Hero bets £15, V calls

Turn (£53)

7

Hero bets £25, V raises to £65

Hero??

Assuming V at best has 14 outs, such as KJ, at worst 4 outs with 2 pairs, I struggled to figure out a raise amount that is not over £200, and that hero can still C/F on unfavorable river.

Do you have a fast way to work out bet size to offer worse odd for any number of outs V could have in his raising range?

What do you do if an 8/9/K/A// pair up at the river?

I like a little bit bigger on the flop, right at or just under pot.

Based on your read, I don't see him playing a draw fast here. AQ is at the low end of his range, but I lean more towards QT or 77. I think he's charging you to draw, and has no idea you're made. We're basically in a dream spot vs. this villain, and the only thing I'm really worried about is him getting a bad case of the mubs due to his recent run-bad.

So now we're asked whether to call 45 into 143, or raise. Villain has 385 behind, so we don't have raise an ungodly amount to play for stacks on the river. I'm thinking a raise to ~170 is about right. That get's the pot just under 400 and makes it trivial to call your AI on the river.

Overbet jam. Sets aren't folding.

Do you range him to 66/77 exclusively?

What if the river is one of the scare cards?

Any (11)
T (3)
Q (3)
J (3)
K (3)
A (3)

I exclude 8 or 9 non diamond in this list because I don't think he will make a higher straight when they hit, maybe 6 + 7 since QQ/TT/66/77/67 are most unlikely + small part of his range

Total there are 20 safe cards VS 26 scare cards, do you still jam regardless OOP on river if the turn raise is called?

Make it 150 is good. Also, calling and going for a check raise on river is ok too but worse I think

Our hand is well disguised and a Jam looks like a over-pair, V has told us he can beat TPTK/Over-pair.

Jam Turn and we expect V to call with 2P+.

I agree and like this line as well.

Like you said, it is difficult to decide on a raise amount that isn't all in, because it makes for difficult decisions on the river. I think if we were in position, a smaller raise to 150 would be better. We would get to see him act first and can make better decisions based on what comes on the river. However, being OOP, jamming here seems better and prevents you from making mistakes.

I also think an all in shove here could look like a bluff or overpair to villain on such a draw heavy board. I'd expect him to even call with 67s.

A tight player is raising our turn barrel and we have the nuts.

I like an overbet jam here pretty often, 2p+ isn't folding very often.

Yes. I jam 100%.

You're getting a case of the mubs with the nuts, man. Scare cards are more likely to kill your action than cost you the pot. There's no need to assign full merit to all potential scare cards, and they can't all improve his range to have you way behind. Let's give him the strongest range here, assuming you think he's capable of raising the turn with a combo draw.

KJ/J9/QT/ and 77 just to throw in a set for good measure. Sound reasonable?

We're ~70% favorite against that range OTT.

Now, let's looks at our equity against his range with various scare cards:

A - ~92% (62% if we include all combos of KJ/J9)
6 - ~70%
7 - ~82%
Q/T - ~10%

The point is that we have huge equity against his range, and we can't narrow it to hands that beat us. Instead, we need to focus on making the river action profitable vs. his range, not against his nutted hands. By raising to $170, we put the pot at $400 and leave him with $280 effective. So our river AI is $280 to win $680, which gives us an incredible equity advantage against his range.