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Old 07-10-2018, 09:30 PM   #51
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
I believe there is no such thing as a difference in opinion. When two people disagree its because one of them is missing a fact.

Here you are clearly forgetting that we have 90BB's and 3 opponents.

There are no good semi-bluff spots. a check/raise commits us to the pot. 3 opponents makes it less likely to be sucessful. We're almost always going to be an underdog when called. Putting your stack in as an underdog is -EV

As far as extracting value?? How? We've only got 6x the pot! Great value betting requires us to have enough money to make bets on every street. How are you "extracting" value after you're all-in?
I just choose to not be a fugging nit.

ppl give off bad sizing tells at LLSNL. ppl over fold based off the absolute dollar amount of a bet regardless of the pot odds. ppl dont value bet thin enough or bluff enough.

you must be an absolute pleasure to have at a table.
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:34 PM   #52
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Great value betting requires us to have enough money to make bets on every street. How are you "extracting" value after you're all-in?

Also wtf are you talking about here? Make beers on every street? Is this limit?





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Old 07-10-2018, 09:48 PM   #53
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Also wtf are you talking about here? Make beers on every street? Is this limit?
Im not sure what you're missing. If you can bet the flop, turn, and river, you'll make more money than if you only have enough money to bet the flop, and turn. That river bet is the biggest (because this isn't limit). And we're talking about value here.

That's what SPR tells us. It tells us how much betting is required to get all the money in. If only a little betting is required (low SPR) then we can commit more easily. When we want to commit less easily (and bluff more along the way), we need situations where more betting is required to get all the money in (high SPR).
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:49 PM   #54
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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you must be an absolute pleasure to have at a table.
Yeah, if you like losing
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:52 PM   #55
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Yeah, if you like losing
EYE OF THE TIGER!!!!

you convinced me you're a bawss, I dont want you at my table I'm too scurrred
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Old 07-10-2018, 11:09 PM   #56
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Folding this hand pre with nearly 30x implied and closing the action is simply laughable and I can't even believe it's being debated with a straight face


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This is basically my thought.

You always know where you're at with a hand like 98s, that's what is so great about it. You will know if you're likely ahead or behind, and you'll know what you're drawing to. You're very rarely going to get in a heavy rio spot where you're not sure to call. You're going to know when you can x/r and get a lot of folds.

Easy call for me personally. If you're less experienced and aren't comfortable bluffing, you can fold and I don't think it's criminal. To make a profit here you have to put in some bluffs every now and then. Arguing that it's a clear fold is pretty far off base imo.



AS for the hand, which has probably been discussed at length by now, going for a x/r is clearly the best play. Raiser has a lot of queens in his range. Check/shove is too crazy imo, you need to check raise flop & shove turn. Try to leave SPR slightly under 1 going into the turn.
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Old 07-10-2018, 11:18 PM   #57
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

Pre call is marginal, slightly +EV at best and BE/slightly -ev if you dont navigate post well. Folding here is not “criminal” but i wouldnt ever fold here vs a 3.5x raise and two callers, closing action from BB

Otf we should be x/raising and jamming any turn. X/c obv the worst of the 3 options. Leading otf i dont think we have enough fold equity, and we get to a lot of weird turns where our equity drops and we’re still OOP. At least when we x/r and shove turns, we can occasionally fold out better hands and better draws. Another benefit to checking is sometimes they all check and we get a free card. Not a big fan of leading at all
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Old 07-10-2018, 11:59 PM   #58
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Yeah, if you like losing
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Old 07-11-2018, 09:35 AM   #59
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Pre call is marginal, slightly +EV at best and BE/slightly -ev if you dont navigate post well. Folding here is not “criminal” but i wouldnt ever fold here vs a 3.5x raise and two callers, closing action from BB

Otf we should be x/raising and jamming any turn. X/c obv the worst of the 3 options. Leading otf i dont think we have enough fold equity, and we get to a lot of weird turns where our equity drops and we’re still OOP. At least when we x/r and shove turns, we can occasionally fold out better hands and better draws. Another benefit to checking is sometimes they all check and we get a free card. Not a big fan of leading at all
The bold, IMHO, is the closest to correct in this entire thread. There are no absolutes. The call is marginal, meaning that for some players it will be marginally +EV and for others it will be marginally -EV. The key is to know yourself well enough and the table situation well enough to tell the difference. Simply calling routinely in this spot or folding routinely in this spot are likely BOTH mistakes depending on how well you actually estimate your skill advantage versus the current table and most importantly, the V who has raised. If I had to guess though, most of us (myself included) OVER-rate our skill advantage and make more calls here than we should over the long term.
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Old 07-11-2018, 10:37 AM   #60
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

Stacks are still too short for your skill to matter.

LOL at "I can call 'cuz I'm good"

If you think that, you're not good.
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Old 07-13-2018, 07:41 PM   #61
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

Ok, bwslim is making the most sense here. I also believe shorn that this spot might be only slightly +EV, but it definitely is +EV without question.

Owl, I'm sure you have a good understanding of which hands play better at certain SPR's and that's why your considering snap mucking this hand rather than playing it in a pot with SPR 6.. SPR is a tool for guiding our commitment decisions and, most importantly, anticipating them so we can make proper pre-flop decisions like you said. However, SPR 6 heads up and SPR 6 4-way have drastically different implications for our commitment post flop, but you already know this having read that book you called "The Bible" which goes into how MW effects these decisions. In one of these SPR 6 pots, we are less 'committed' with our top pair GK and over pair hands, and yes you guessed it, the 4-way pot. Just think about another tool we use that bwslim mentioned, the implied odds on the money we are risking. A common convention for the proper price to flop a set is 10x our investment. If we had a small pocket pair instead ( I know we don't but hang on), then we would be risking 5$ to potentially win 30x our investment. A dream scenario would be to have someone in this pot who thinks they need to commit their entire stack with on overpair when we flop our set. Like-wise, a hand like 89s is getting proper implied odds to hit a two-pair+ hand or massive draw like we did when he have 30x implied on our investment. We obviously are not trying to hit a top pair hand here and start calling down. The SPR 6 # does not carry enough information about our commitment decisions when we are in a MW pot like this. The example slim gave of this same spot without getting 'priced in' (there is a reason for this terminology) by the two previous callers illustrates the flaw of relying entirely on "what is the SPR?". It is a better spot to have them in the hand aswell, the pot will be bigger yes therefor lower SPR, and It will be easier to get our stack in when we hit the hands we are looking for, hopefully because someone else in there has TP and goes "hellz yeah TPGK SPR 6 ALL IN!".
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Old 07-14-2018, 02:32 PM   #62
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

All,

Folding this hand preflop is absurd.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:29 AM   #63
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Originally Posted by QuinnthEskimo View Post
Ok, bwslim is making the most sense here. I also believe shorn that this spot might be only slightly +EV, but it definitely is +EV without question.

Owl, I'm sure you have a good understanding of which hands play better at certain SPR's and that's why your considering snap mucking this hand rather than playing it in a pot with SPR 6.. SPR is a tool for guiding our commitment decisions and, most importantly, anticipating them so we can make proper pre-flop decisions like you said. However, SPR 6 heads up and SPR 6 4-way have drastically different implications for our commitment post flop, but you already know this having read that book you called "The Bible" which goes into how MW effects these decisions. In one of these SPR 6 pots, we are less 'committed' with our top pair GK and over pair hands, and yes you guessed it, the 4-way pot. Just think about another tool we use that bwslim mentioned, the implied odds on the money we are risking. A common convention for the proper price to flop a set is 10x our investment. If we had a small pocket pair instead ( I know we don't but hang on), then we would be risking 5$ to potentially win 30x our investment. A dream scenario would be to have someone in this pot who thinks they need to commit their entire stack with on overpair when we flop our set. Like-wise, a hand like 89s is getting proper implied odds to hit a two-pair+ hand or massive draw like we did when he have 30x implied on our investment. We obviously are not trying to hit a top pair hand here and start calling down. The SPR 6 # does not carry enough information about our commitment decisions when we are in a MW pot like this. The example slim gave of this same spot without getting 'priced in' (there is a reason for this terminology) by the two previous callers illustrates the flaw of relying entirely on "what is the SPR?". It is a better spot to have them in the hand aswell, the pot will be bigger yes therefor lower SPR, and It will be easier to get our stack in when we hit the hands we are looking for, hopefully because someone else in there has TP and goes "hellz yeah TPGK SPR 6 ALL IN!".
Eskimo, My money is on nobody having read this. Try breaking it into paragraphs.
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Old 07-16-2018, 07:45 AM   #64
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

I read it. basically it says

"we can play this hand cuz there are no rules about playing bad"

you all can rant about how you can make so much more sophisticated decisions than just looking at SPR. I still dont get that because your hand, your position, and the size of the field all suck worse than the SPR. Yet somehow folks are still arriving at "call"

Like you think you wont lose money playing weak 1 pair hands and draws from out of position short stacked

lol....no one has yet to prove how thats even mathematically possible. Everyone just believes they're so friggen good postflop they can get away with thinking like cavemen preflop

"Ooga Booga, I has pretty card. I do money now..."
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Old 07-16-2018, 09:40 AM   #65
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

IMO tthric


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Old 07-16-2018, 12:05 PM   #66
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

Iím not keen on re-opening this thread as agree TTHRIC IMO, but does software like PokerTracker allow you to analyse results with say 89s from the BB when there has been a MP1 raise and two calls (for example) and if so, can this help us get a feel for profitability of this play? And if so, can anyone share insights from their own databases?
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Old 07-17-2018, 11:44 AM   #67
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Originally Posted by vanvliet View Post
I’m not keen on re-opening this thread as agree TTHRIC IMO, but does software like PokerTracker allow you to analyse results with say 89s from the BB when there has been a MP1 raise and two calls (for example) and if so, can this help us get a feel for profitability of this play? And if so, can anyone share insights from their own databases?
Yes there is. There is a veteran poster/coach who analyzed extensive online databases. His name escapes me.

Two steadfast poker axioms I live by:

* You win less money & lose more money OOP, than you do IP
* A no-gap max-stretch SC needs to realize a return of 25x your preflop investment when playing it based solely on its hand value. This is not true when your Vs are bad, too sticky, when you make a hand, or you can take down pots w/o a made hand vs weak/tight players.
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Old 07-18-2018, 07:34 PM   #68
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
I read it. basically it says

"we can play this hand cuz there are no rules about playing bad"

you all can rant about how you can make so much more sophisticated decisions than just looking at SPR. I still dont get that because your hand, your position, and the size of the field all suck worse than the SPR. Yet somehow folks are still arriving at "call"

Like you think you wont lose money playing weak 1 pair hands and draws from out of position short stacked

lol....no one has yet to prove how thats even mathematically possible. Everyone just believes they're so friggen good postflop they can get away with thinking like cavemen preflop

"Ooga Booga, I has pretty card. I do money now..."
I guess maybe you read the post but weren't able to understand much of it, that's ok. At the end of the day all poker decisions come down to our risk vs. reward, whether immediate or potential, and the relevant probabilities associated with realizing either.
SPR is a # that approximates your potential risk/reward in relation to the immediate size of the pot OTF. It does not however factor in any other important information like "how much am I risking pre-flop", "how often will I hit my hand", and "what is my direct or potential return on this investment"..
It doesn't take a genius to see that those are really the only pieces of info we need to make an informed decision. We can shout all we want about SPR, maybe we can even associate specific expected values to being in different SPR pots with certain hands (all of which will be +EV btw, we have non-zero % chance of winning non-zero amount of dollars)… example
with 89s...
SPR EV
SPR10 10BB
SPR9 9BB
...SPR1 1BB

Obviously I wouldn't know what the exact EV's are, but the point is that being in a pot is a freeroll, and the main factor that makes being in a pot -EV is the amount we pay pre-flop. Also If we make poor post-flop decisions, a freeroll pot could turn -EV, think of someone who checks their option in the BB and starts betting too much with top pair weak kicker. So, without considering how much we are risking pre-flop to arrive in these different SPR pots, we aren't seeing the full picture. Then, just knowing what hands we are actually trying to make, and not putting in too much money with hands that didn't quite get there is also important. But we should know that line before we make the decision to invest pre-flop after we have decided what % of the time we will hit and If overall the call is +EV based on our direct and implied odds.
Honestly, If you are still having a hard time wrapping your head around the simpler concepts than SPR that dictate whether we should call pre-flop. I suggest you re-read David Sklansky's Theory of Poker..

You've also been chanting "show me the math".. I'm not going to waste my time doing a precise calculation, firstly because all the different possibilities in poker make it rather time consuming, but secondly because the fact that you still think we should fold pre suggests you wouldn't follow it anyways. Instead I'll outline a calculation and you can feel free to do it yourself

(% of time we flop 2 pair+) * {(pot)+[(stack)*(% of time we GII, should be between .9 and 1)] - (stack)*(% we get coolered, should be extremely low)}


+

(% of time we flop +EV draws) *{some open enders and FD's will likely be +EV depending on post flop action, make some assumptions, factor this in to overall EV. these spots will be there own math problems.. If you decided to assume we aren't able to GII 100% of the time when we flop big, then you need to add a small % of the time we win the pot uncontested with +EV draws.

-2.5BB*(majority of the time)

SPR is really not important here
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Old 07-18-2018, 07:42 PM   #69
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

If you use a simplification like Zuneit shared of 25x our preflop investment with a no-gap max stretch SC, then you can easily see that we want to call here getting around 39x I believe someone else in the thread had shown.
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Old 07-18-2018, 08:06 PM   #70
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

I play far less than 1000 hours a year, totally a rec player.

For those who play rec-like hours, "cheap close the action spot with suited one-gapper cards" and "run good" and "play a fricken hand now and then" and "these jokers are all overplaying, if I make something odds are I am getting paid off" is far more important than 29x vs 35x or whatever.

And if post flop I have something close to "15 outs twice" - even if the flush outs might be compromised and even though the board might pair, and maybe even the sky might fall and the seas overtake the low-lying land, that's good enough for me.

I will donk a PSB+, or check/shove my short stack, with the (approximately) 52 to 48 favorite every time.

Otherwise why did I come to this game in the first place.

Last edited by Nozsr; 07-18-2018 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 07-18-2018, 08:38 PM   #71
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

@Owl

Why is 15x SPR good, but 30x pre-flop IO bad?

If one should make SPR our religion, shouldn't we then make all of our decisions by our religion?

Is a $7 open raise at 1/2 the same as a $18 open at 2/5 and at $35 open at 5/T?

Playing 25 hands per hour in live poker really worth the time if you are going to fold 98s, for 2.5bb out of the BB closing the action?

If we do play this hand, should we check dark or wait to see the flop before checking?
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Old 07-19-2018, 10:14 AM   #72
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Originally Posted by Nozsr View Post
I play far less than 1000 hours a year, totally a rec player.

For those who play rec-like hours, "cheap close the action spot with suited one-gapper cards" and "run good" and "play a fricken hand now and then" and "these jokers are all overplaying, if I make something odds are I am getting paid off" is far more important than 29x vs 35x or whatever.

And if post flop I have something close to "15 outs twice" - even if the flush outs might be compromised and even though the board might pair, and maybe even the sky might fall and the seas overtake the low-lying land, that's good enough for me.

I will donk a PSB+, or check/shove my short stack, with the (approximately) 52 to 48 favorite every time.

Otherwise why did I come to this game in the first place.
this is the #1 reason we LOVE rec players
no bankroll to protect
no regard if they win or lose
they are there to GAMBOLL
and this is why we try to maximize our edge against them while denying them
coin flip situations.
there will always be spots where V will GII when we are huge favorites
so why give them the coin flips when they can be avoided.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:04 AM   #73
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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this is the #1 reason we LOVE rec players
no bankroll to protect
no regard if they win or lose
they are there to GAMBOLL
and this is why we try to maximize our edge against them while denying them
coin flip situations.
there will always be spots where V will GII when we are huge favorites
so why give them the coin flips when they can be avoided.
Are you saying you would actively seek to avoid coin flips? Little confused by your point
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