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Old 07-10-2018, 01:26 PM   #26
RagingOwl
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

why is 30x good?
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Old 07-10-2018, 01:33 PM   #27
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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why is 30x good?
Because we need sufficient stack depth to gamble with a low equity hand AND get paid when we hit or flop a big draw and give us depth to allow for some fold equity. Even Ed Miller knows *that*.
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Old 07-10-2018, 01:33 PM   #28
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

SPR being the be all and end all in this spot mages no sense at all. Suppose instead guy opens to 7 and folds to us in BB. Week if we call there will be ~15 in pot and SPR will be 12. Does that mean that is a better spot than OPs because SPR is only 7-8 in OP?


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Old 07-10-2018, 01:36 PM   #29
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

So loooooool at saying make"SPR your religion". It's s tool sure but basing every decision on the SPR is awful. GG will disagree with me I'm sure tho


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Old 07-10-2018, 01:36 PM   #30
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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why is 30x good?


Actually I think itís 36x (5 more to call with 180 effective)

Simple answer is that 1/36 is 2.8% which strongly meets the 5-10 rule!
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Old 07-10-2018, 02:39 PM   #31
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Actually AllTheCheese and I did come to an agreement that using the most optimistic estimates possible, the EV of a pre-flop call line is under 0.5BB's. See post #86 in that thread.

I see from Post #87 that AllTheCheese is agreeing win a +$0.61 profit with what he calls an obviously bad strategy of open folding when he hasnít connected with the flop. I think he is suggesting that we will make extra EV by playing in other ways when not connecting with the flop. For example, I think he is suggesting that the PFR will often not c-bet the flop when heís missed, giving us an extra opportunity to connect with the turn.
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:34 PM   #32
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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I see from Post #87 that AllTheCheese is agreeing win a +$0.61 profit with what he calls an obviously bad strategy of open folding when he hasn’t connected with the flop. I think he is suggesting that we will make extra EV by playing in other ways when not connecting with the flop. For example, I think he is suggesting that the PFR will often not c-bet the flop when he’s missed, giving us an extra opportunity to connect with the turn.
Yeah but he's failed to account for all the money we lose with a dominated hand,

or when our hand is outdrawn,

or when we call with a draw and lose.

He's assuming that we can play this hand passively, 4-ways, from out of position, after flopping something less than 2pair or a 12+out draw, and make a profit. That's a really bold assumption for which there is no evidence or mathematical justification. It's just an imagined EV calculation that basically goes like this....."*shrug*, I think I'm so ****ing good that I think I can overcome all the -EV conditions in this hand and turn a profit". That's not a strategy. It's bull****.

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Old 07-10-2018, 04:34 PM   #33
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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So loooooool at saying make"SPR your religion". It's s tool sure but basing every decision on the SPR is awful. GG will disagree with me I'm sure tho


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Who said we're basing every decision on it? We're not.

Just pre-flop decisions.
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:37 PM   #34
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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SPR being the be all and end all in this spot mages no sense at all. Suppose instead guy opens to 7 and folds to us in BB. Week if we call there will be ~15 in pot and SPR will be 12. Does that mean that is a better spot than OPs because SPR is only 7-8 in OP?


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Yes, that's exactly what it means.

You'll have more equity heads-up.
You'll be able to more easily realize that equity
You'll be able to more easily over-realize that equity because the high SPR means more bluffing opportunities and maneuverability post-flop.
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:37 PM   #35
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Because we need sufficient stack depth to gamble with a low equity hand AND get paid when we hit or flop a big draw and give us depth to allow for some fold equity. Even Ed Miller knows *that*.
How are you determining what's "sufficient"?

Is 30x sufficient?
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:44 PM   #36
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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How are you determining what's "sufficient"?

Is 30x sufficient?
Yes IMO
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Old 07-10-2018, 05:01 PM   #37
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Yes IMO
It's borderline in my opinion.

Generally as a rule of thumb, I would use 2x minimum implied odds. With an unpaired hand, you'll make a strong made hand about 1 in 18 times. So I'd be looking for 2 x 18 = 36x implied odds.

In this case, because we're getting a discount in the blinds, our implied odds are really ~39 to 1. So we're kinda ok there.

But then from there I'd start to weigh other factors....
SPR=Bad
Our position=Bad
Our Hand = Bad
# of players = Bad

So we can split hairs on this all day, but I think any sensible opinion puts us in break-even-ish territory at best. Do you know anyone who shows a profit in this game by making break-even plays?
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Old 07-10-2018, 06:48 PM   #38
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Yeah but he's failed to account for all the money we lose with a dominated hand,

or when our hand is outdrawn,

or when we call with a draw and lose.

He's assuming that we can play this hand passively, 4-ways, from out of position, after flopping something less than 2pair or a 12+out draw, and make a profit. That's a really bold assumption for which there is no evidence or mathematical justification. It's just an imagined EV calculation that basically goes like this....."*shrug*, I think I'm so ****ing good that I think I can overcome all the -EV conditions in this hand and turn a profit". That's not a strategy. It's bull****.

You are pretty scathing about the possibility of adding any extra EV from the times we end up winning when we make a pair or we flop an OESD/naked FD and get there. One thing we can say about this EV number is that it is strictly greater than zero (as we can just open fold whenever we donít flop a monster or a 12+ out draw)

Iíve done some rough math in my head that suggests we could have a few extra $s of EV from those situations. My thoughts are too sketchy at the moment to start typing them out on this forum but they seem reasonable to me. I think we can construct some logic and math fairly easily to do this and itís not just a matter of just shrugging/making up numbers.

If we can get only a few $ of EV from the call pre flop play, then, although a few $ doesnít seem like much, it can add up in the long term. If we get this spot happening once every hour or two then a few extra $s of EV could raise our win rate per hour quite significantly.

(I appreciate that you have raised issues around being dominated and being up against bigger flush draws etc. and how that could change the math of AllTheCheeseís workings. I havenít had time today to get into that in detail, so Iíll put that on the back burner for the moment)

I havenít read the Flynn/Mehta/Miller book PNLH vol 1 that you mentioned. It sounds interesting. Iíd like to read it.

Iíve been having a look at reviews of it on PokerNews and on amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk. On the latter two, there are some interesting reviews which offer some challenges around the SPR theories expounded in the book. These theories sound interesting - they seem quite new/unusual in terms of poker theory, I have not seen them in other literature. It seems they argue for manipulating pot sizes preflop, to create low SPRs (in single digits?) to allow us to make money when flopping hands like TPGK against worse hands that will call us. To my mind (but without much thinking from me atm) this could make a lot of sense with short stacks like <40bb. But with the more typical stacks of ~70-100+ bbs I would think that the aspect of the game involving playing SCs and other speculative hands to make Ďbigí hands becomes a larger part of the game. Anyway, it sounds interesting, Iím interested in finding out more about it. I think Miller is good in general.

If you are taking this Flynn/Mehta/Miller material and coming to conclusions such as folding pre in the spot discussed in the OP here, then I am starting to worry that maybe you have misinterpreted their writings somewhere along the line, especially when your conclusions end up contradicting advice from such good sources as Jonathan Little and the good ole 5-10 rule.

But there we go... interesting stuff eh?
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Old 07-10-2018, 06:53 PM   #39
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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I'm really not following the advice in this thread so far. Sounds like a lot of "I like to do this" with no real justification.

First of all. Fold pre. As I've discussed in this forum at length, and proven definitively with math, suited connectors are worthless hands multi-way, out of position, with low SPR's. Calling here is a textbook leak.

I like a raise if we're deeper, but we're not so fold.

As played, on the flop, leading doesn't make any sense. Yeah, you can get called by worse, and you can fold out hands that totally missed but might be better than yours (Ax for example). But ultimately, if we have 15 outs, we're an equity favorite, and should really be trying to get a lot of money in on this street. Betting $20 and getting called seems like a disappointment.

Or, if our bet is raised, then we probably don't have as much equity as we think. Sets have a 30+% chance to increase to a full house. Bigger flush draws and made straights also have us in bad shape. If our donk lead is raised, this short, we have no fold equity.
So shoving over someone who does this seems like a sure fire recipe for getting our stack in bad.

As played, I'm trying to check-raise the flop and get $45-$65 in on this street. Then I'm open-jamming all turns.
You don't call 2.5 BBs more with 89s?
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Old 07-10-2018, 07:19 PM   #40
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

For the record, here's what Johnathan little says about flatting with speculative hands from the blinds....

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I was recently told about a hand by a $2-$5 player that illustrates a few detrimental mistakes many players make on a regular basis. Everyone folded around to a regular, presumably decent player on the button who raised to $20 out of his $500 effective stack. The small blind folded and our Hero decided to call from the big blind with 8Diamond Suit 6Diamond Suit.

When facing a large four-big blind raise, Hero should three-bet or fold most of his hands that will often be difficult to play postflop. This includes hands like Heroís 8Diamond Suit 6Diamond Suit because most of the time, it will flop a marginal pair or a marginal draw, both of which are not premium holdings that will have a difficult time continuing if they face multiple bets. This leak of calling large raises from out of position is one of the main reasons many $2-$5 players never profitably move up to larger games. I would have three-bet to $70 some portion of the time (depending on my opponentís preflop strategy) and folded the rest.
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-new...-too-passively
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Old 07-10-2018, 07:55 PM   #41
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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It's borderline in my opinion.



Generally as a rule of thumb, I would use 2x minimum implied odds. With an unpaired hand, you'll make a strong made hand about 1 in 18 times. So I'd be looking for 2 x 18 = 36x implied odds.



In this case, because we're getting a discount in the blinds, our implied odds are really ~39 to 1. So we're kinda ok there.



But then from there I'd start to weigh other factors....

SPR=Bad

Our position=Bad

Our Hand = Bad

# of players = Bad



So we can split hairs on this all day, but I think any sensible opinion puts us in break-even-ish territory at best. Do you know anyone who shows a profit in this game by making break-even plays?

Do you have any math to support this or is it just a-bad; b-bad; b-bad?




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Old 07-10-2018, 07:56 PM   #42
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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For the record, here's what Johnathan little says about flatting with speculative hands from the blinds....







https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-new...-too-passively


The example you site is in no way similar to the OP


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Old 07-10-2018, 08:09 PM   #43
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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The example you site is in no way similar to the OP


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Completely agree with beslim69 here...

Iíd absolutely agree with Little NOT to call pre flop HU after a LARGE button raise with SCs.
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Old 07-10-2018, 08:39 PM   #44
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Completely agree with beslim69 here...

Iíd absolutely agree with Little NOT to call pre flop HU after a LARGE button raise with SCs.
Large? It's only a half a BB larger than the bet in the OP.

And if anything, it's a decidedly better situation than in the OP, being heads up and slightly deeper stacked. Bluffing will be easier heads-up.

In the OP, we're shorter, and there are 3x as many opponents that we need to convince to fold when we're bluffing.

So...why is this hand a call, and Little's a fold? Little's situation is decidedly better for us....and it's a fold at this stack depth. With worse implied odds, and fewer profitable bluffs, why would you be convinced that the OP is a better situation to call.

You guys really need to just find the reset button and think critically about what you're doing. Seriously, shake off the indoctrinated Brunson-isms and actually try to figure out what makes money.
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:00 PM   #45
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Seriously, shake off the indoctrinated Brunson-isms and actually try to figure out what makes money.

Love it!
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:01 PM   #46
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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Large? It's only a half a BB larger than the bet in the OP.



Fair point
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:07 PM   #47
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

we are getting direct odds pre, our hand has plenty of equity given lol pot odds.

our hand plays well post if you know how to extract value or semi bluff good spots.

I cant believe this is still a conversation. as slim says, folding here pre is criminal if we have any sense of playing post
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:10 PM   #48
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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So...why is this hand a call, and Little's a fold?

The main reason is that with the callers in the OP: (1) we are offered better direct pot odds to call pre (2) the pot gets bloated so that when PFR Villain c-bets, his bet size is now larger, meaning that we get an inflated pay-off when we connect with the flop with our 12+ outer or our flopped monster.
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:16 PM   #49
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Re: 89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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our hand plays well post if you know how to extract value or semi bluff good spots.
I believe there is no such thing as a difference in opinion. When two people disagree its because one of them is missing a fact.

Here you are clearly forgetting that we have 90BB's and 3 opponents.

There are no good semi-bluff spots. a check/raise commits us to the pot. 3 opponents makes it less likely to be sucessful. We're almost always going to be an underdog when called. Putting your stack in as an underdog is -EV

As far as extracting value?? How? We've only got 6x the pot! Great value betting requires us to have enough money to make bets on every street. How are you "extracting" value after you're all-in?
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:30 PM   #50
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89 Big Draws, Bet Sizing?

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I believe there is no such thing as a difference in opinion. When two people disagree its because one of them is missing a fact.



Here you are clearly forgetting that we have 90BB's and 3 opponents.



There are no good semi-bluff spots. a check/raise commits us to the pot. 3 opponents makes it less likely to be sucessful. We're almost always going to be an underdog when called. Putting your stack in as an underdog is -EV



As far as extracting value?? How? We've only got 6x the pot! Great value betting requires us to have enough money to make bets on every street. How are you "extracting" value after you're all-in?


I love 100 post guy that comes in here to school us all with his vast "knowledge". Nowhere in any of your posts have you discussed direct or implied odds just that you don't like the spr.

Whatever, fold this hand all you want. Don't care.

This hand absolutely plays better MW and there really isn't a debate. Yes you will have to play post fairly straightforward due to position, number of villains and actual hand strength. But just because we can't bluff doesn't mean we don't have proper odds both direct and implied. If suggest you focus more on that part of your decision making and less on SPR as ultimately that is what matters

If you'd like to show some maths and some reasonable ranges to support your position rather than just screaming SPR your might be strengthened


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