Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingOwl
I read it. basically it says
"we can play this hand cuz there are no rules about playing bad"
you all can rant about how you can make so much more sophisticated decisions than just looking at SPR. I still dont get that because your hand, your position, and the size of the field all suck worse than the SPR. Yet somehow folks are still arriving at "call"
Like you think you wont lose money playing weak 1 pair hands and draws from out of position short stacked
lol....no one has yet to prove how thats even mathematically possible. Everyone just believes they're so friggen good postflop they can get away with thinking like cavemen preflop
"Ooga Booga, I has pretty card. I do money now..."
I guess maybe you read the post but weren't able to understand much of it, that's ok. At the end of the day all poker decisions come down to our risk vs. reward, whether immediate or potential, and the relevant probabilities associated with realizing either.
SPR is a # that approximates your potential risk/reward in relation to the immediate size of the pot OTF. It does not however factor in any other important information like "how much am I risking pre-flop", "how often will I hit my hand", and "what is my direct or potential return on this investment"..
It doesn't take a genius to see that those are really the only pieces of info we need to make an informed decision. We can shout all we want about SPR, maybe we can even associate specific expected values to being in different SPR pots with certain hands (all of which will be +EV btw, we have non-zero % chance of winning non-zero amount of dollars)… example
with 89s...
SPR EV
SPR10 10BB
SPR9 9BB
...SPR1 1BB
Obviously I wouldn't know what the exact EV's are, but the point is that being in a pot is a freeroll, and the main factor that makes being in a pot -EV is the amount we pay pre-flop. Also If we make poor post-flop decisions, a freeroll pot could turn -EV, think of someone who checks their option in the BB and starts betting too much with top pair weak kicker. So, without considering how much we are risking pre-flop to arrive in these different SPR pots, we aren't seeing the full picture. Then, just knowing what hands we are actually trying to make, and not putting in too much money with hands that didn't quite get there is also important. But we should know that line before we make the decision to invest pre-flop after we have decided what % of the time we will hit and If overall the call is +EV based on our direct and implied odds.
Honestly, If you are still having a hard time wrapping your head around the simpler concepts than SPR that dictate whether we should call pre-flop. I suggest you re-read David Sklansky's Theory of Poker..
You've also been chanting "show me the math".. I'm not going to waste my time doing a precise calculation, firstly because all the different possibilities in poker make it rather time consuming, but secondly because the fact that you still think we should fold pre suggests you wouldn't follow it anyways. Instead I'll outline a calculation and you can feel free to do it yourself
(% of time we flop 2 pair+) * {(pot)+[(stack)*(% of time we GII, should be between .9 and 1)] - (stack)*(% we get coolered, should be extremely low)}
+
(% of time we flop +EV draws) *{some open enders and FD's will likely be +EV depending on post flop action, make some assumptions, factor this in to overall EV. these spots will be there own math problems.. If you decided to assume we aren't able to GII 100% of the time when we flop big, then you need to add a small % of the time we win the pot uncontested with +EV draws.
-2.5BB*(majority of the time)
SPR is really not important here