Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
History hand 1:
1/2/4, 1 EP limp, V (200) opens to 12 OTB, Hero (200) looks down at AQhh in SB and thinks "this guy is tight, will put me in a bad spot if I 3b and whiff flop, so let's just muck it and wait for a better spot".. straddler and limper calls
Flop (3way) comes 458, checks around
Turn 2, straddler bets 1/2 pot, limper raises, V shows me 97s and folds, straddler calls
River 6, straddler shoves with 23o for rivered straight, limper folds
I'll expound upon
wait's worthless response & give some reasons why folding AQs is not profitable long term against the vast majority of opponents.
You have 1 limper in EP & then it folds to V OTB who makes it $12.00.
He could have quite a large range here. He only raised 3x the straddle, making it profitable for both the straddler & limper to call. He certainly doesn't want to see a flop 4 way with QQ, eh? What about AK? probably not. So I would think he'd raise more with those holdings.
However, let's put him on a really tight range of TT+, JTs+, KJs+, AJs/o+, KQo. That gives you 62% equity, tying 9% of the time. You have to tighten his range up to the top 4% of starting hands for it to be close to a coin flip & you still have an edge. You also have the image of being weak-tight, raising OOP, if you choose to do so.
Also note, that for every pocket pair <TT that the Button opens with,
your equity rises.
Now I don't think there are many out there who loath playing OOP more than I, however, I am not folding AQs in the blinds in this situation & IMO a raise is definitely in order, because I want to appear uber strong for when I c-bet the flop. I want some dead money in the pot & fewer Vs to contend with post flop.
Which is the same thing I'd want with TT+
By raising 4x the Button's raise, you are establishing, without question [due to your weak-tight image] how strong your hand is. Now, even though there's $23 in the pot b4 the rake, the Button has to call $36 more to see a flop.
If the others fold & the Button's range is TT+, AQs/o, KQs & he folds KQs & AQo, that is 6 of the 39 combos he opens with, or 15% of the time. Maybe he folds AQs or even TT....but not likely, although it's not likely that his range is as tight as I made it, but you said he's a tight player, so....but wait! He raised to $12 with 97s!!!!
He is going to fold so much of range of preflop!
However, look how well your hand fairs against a really tight range with your image.
IMO, a good part of your problem playing your hand like this, due to the fact that you're not use to it, is giving off tells when you raise pre. You need to take your time & cut out your raise after thinking for 10 seconds what you want to accomplish & commit yourself to a c-bet OTF should you get it HU. Which you will, cause only a complete moron is calling $48 with 23o & the limper probably called due to the pot odds & closing the action.
If you're right handed, place the elbow of your left hand on the rail & rest your palm on your right chest to check your breathing. Picture the other Vs folding & you making a c-bet of 65% of the pot, after the rake, no matter what the flop is, should the Button call.
Odds are well in your favor that everyone was folding to a $48 raise in this situation & winning $17 every time they fold is gold & a good percentage of the time when only the Button calls, but folds the flop is delicious.
You can't play poker to make the best hand before shoveling money into the pot; you didn't come to play bingo.