4am Satuday night (Sunday morning), 2/5, 3 handed

V (Covers): Late 20s, early 30s Bulgarian body builder type. He has just woken up at 11pm, so he is fresher than most. Good hand reader and often make correct calls with middle/ bottom pairs against agressive Vs. Have not shown any big bluff but we have some histories.

Hero (£1,200): Have been on the table since 1am, first 2 hours I was playing 12/10 or maybe even 10/8, so when I had value hands I was not getting paid off more than 1 street until about 3:30am when I did this -

Hero had 72 in MP raised to £20, V called in CO, BB called

Flop A88

Hero bets £40, V calls, BB folded

Turn 3

Hero bets £105, V raised to £275, Hero went all-in for £1,100

V snap folds and I showed my semi bluff.

Everyone was surprised by this since I was playing so tight before this hand, I felt my image and my bet sizing reps a big Ax and V could not call for a chop or without a 8.

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Before the 72 hand me and V were also on same table on Wednesday afternoon, I had only £380 left after losing a big pot and called a 3 bet of £100 with 34 from V2, while Bulgarian V was also in the pot. Flop came 7jj, all checked, turn another J, Bulgarian V checked, I jammed £280, V2 folded and Bulgarian V folded his 44s and I showed my bluff.

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Since I made the 72 I got was getting paid off more often for my value hands but most of the Vs were beginning to get tired and left, so we are left with V and another mid/high stake tourney reg. They both straddle to £10 on button every orbit and although they are friends, they play each others just the same as they would against me (Maybe not as agressive! But what can you do?)

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Hero got 88 on btn and limps

V raised to £25, V2 folded, Hero re-raise to £105, V 4! to £300

How often am I 20%? What percentage does V needs to be 4! light for me to profitably 5! jam? I don't mind a 55/45 flip at all.

raise pre, as played call his raise, as played fold to the 4b and none of these decisions are close at all

Why would you limp 88 otb?

I limp aiming to back raise as there is only 5% chance VS 2 Vs that one of the will have a higher PP.

this

and the first 72 shove was spew---even under the circumstances you described. This was one of the lucky winners this time.

But what happens when they check their j3o in the bb and see a flop for free?

I have position to fold but I lose a bit of value.

You are saying I messed this up from the start?

yes

Don't you think the possibility of winning the 1.5bb outright + them paying to play the pot oop outweighs your strategy?

I would raise pre 90 - 95% of the time, just this time I wanted to play it differently. I wanted to use my back raise to take down any steal in position or see a cheap flop as both Vs have me covered and if I hit a set I will get paid.

Probably just open raising 88 OTB. As played probably just fold.

Raise pre.
As played call.
Fold now.



You've basically have been "running" him over post, villain has showed that he's pretty tight and will not call big bets light, now you decide to take your "edge" away and 3! Small PP IP where your sizing basically makes him play perfect and 4! To a sizing that will force you to either shove(gamble) or fold.
Unless villain has shown spew/blow up tendencies because of your previous history this is a clear fold!
Played pretty bad, sorry but this is just IMHO.

Ps

If you flop a set you might a actually stack him since he might not "believe" you based on previous history.

You can answer your own question regarding a profitable 5! Shoving range in Flopzila or poker cruncher etc.. as long as you get close to guessing his 4! Range.