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8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn... 8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn...

05-29-2019 , 10:46 AM
Sitting in 9 seat, full table. 7 seat is first to act (approx 600 in chips) Bets 20. I have J-10 off suit. I call. Last to act raises to 40. He has 500 in chips. I have about 300.
Folds around to 7, Calls.
I Call pot now at 130.
Flop is 3-9-Q Rainbow. First bets another 20. I call. Person to left bets 40 again. Call call.
Pot is at 250. Turn is an Ace.
First to act checks. I check and guy on left bets 90.
I know the ranges on both these guys and figure first to act is holding a pp. Probably jacks or tens. Last to act is betting the crap out of that ace,and has bet big all night when he pairs the board.
First to act calls.
Obviously here, I am figuring I have 8 outs (8s and Kings).
I know I am behind here.
What would you do?

Last edited by Unknown-Username; 05-29-2019 at 10:52 AM.
8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn... Quote
05-30-2019 , 04:22 AM
Fold preflop with that holding especially given your stack size.

It’s 90 to win 510 = need to win 17.6%

It seems like your opponents probably doesn’t block your outs unless seat 7 has kk or kq though it seems we can discount kk based on preflop action.

Assuming you do have 8 outs, you have 8/42 or 19% equity with implied odds as the person to your left will probably call your all in of 130 on the River if you hit your card.

I can’t see anything but calling that turn bet.

Did the turn bring a flush draw or complete rainbow?




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8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn... Quote
05-30-2019 , 11:58 AM
Welcome to the forum, OP.

Just to clarify, you don't have a double gutshot, you have an open-end straight draw.

You block jacks and tens. What makes you so certain of V1s holding?

V2 bet only $90 into a $250 pot. That is a very small bet of just over 1/3 pot, not a big "betting the crap out of that ace" bet.

If we assume that all of our outs are clean however, by the rule of 2 and 4, we have about a 2% chance to hit each one, or 16% chance to win. You are being asked to pay $90 of what will be a $520 pot, or 17.3% of it. By expressed odds, this is a fold, but as you also have implied odds (likely someone will call a bet OTR if you hit), it's a pretty easy call this close.

It's actually even better than that, as the rule of 2 and 4 only gives us an estimate of our percentage chance of hitting, and the actual chance is 17.4% (8 outs divided by 46 unknown cards), or just over the expressed odds you are looking for, so it's a call even without IOs.

The math in the post above is different than mine because that poster is assuming from your ranging that Vs don't hold any of your outs, so more cards are therefore "known." He's giving you 8/42. That's fine, but a bit optimistic, imo.
8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn... Quote
05-31-2019 , 12:14 PM
Seat 3 last to act had AQ. Seat 7 had 10's.
River was an 8, which means I would have shoved.

I was way behind preflop, awnd out of position. Did not think 40 was too much to bet with 10 J preflop. With the open ended straight draw, I knew I was at less than 20%. Does a normal player who know the odds call here? I am fairly new to the game, but I find I am able to read some people pretty well--and I had in this case.vseat 3 wasn't getting into hands at all without a pocket pair or without A-face.
8 outs with double gutshot straight at turn... Quote

      
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