1/3 NL

Villian - on the button .. ( I have played with him before. He is a Nit)

Fish- SB

Hero - BB -- Hand- (AJ

3 limpers to me in BB. I raise to $21 to callers.. 3 ways we are off to the Flop.

Flop- 8910

Fish is 1st to act and makes it- $25
Hero- calls the - $25
Nit- makes it - $75
Fish- folds and it is on Hero

I only have $55 bucks left so it puts me almost all in..

So- $190 in pot ( - 8 for rake) so one $180ish...

If I put my $55 in it will be around $240

So $55 to win $240 with 8 outs..

- Also, the Nit has a set here like 100% of the time... So, if he hits the last 10 or a 8 or a 9 comes. I would be drawing dead on the River..

AJo is not really a playable hand with 34BB.

If you're going to play it like this - just shove flop yourself for some fold equity.

Also, don't post results.

AP, obvious call.

You should really top up though. 34BB is laughable even for a short stack strategy.

I agree .. I usually would shove the flop.. Honestly, I not even sure why I didn't.. I think I was so shocked the passive fish lead.. It threw me and I just called..

With that stack, just shove the flop.

So we started the hand with only $100? I'm actually a little unsure of preflop at this stack depth. Part of me thinks just seeing a flop here and playing postflop is ok. Another part of me wants to raise to like $35; if we take down the limps, fine (imo), and if we see a flop HU we can shove a PSB on any flop maximizing FE with over outs if looked up (perhaps slowplaying a A high or perhaps J high flop). The $21 raise is a little weirdly inbetween in that we'll whiff too often (which we can't do putting in 1/5th of our stack just to fold the flop) but also won't have as much FE postflop multiway either.

On the flop facing the fish bet we only have a PSB left. With overs + OESD I probably just shove to maximize my FE against pairs and otherwise have decent equity if looked up.

As played, getting about 3:1 I think we're forced to call this off although it's probably pretty close (given he'll suck out with sets and could have the nuts already). Could probably stove against a reasonable range of straights / sets / two pairs, plus also throw in some pair + draws, and it's likely fine to call it off.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So we showed you how to do this in the last thread. Let's see what you learned.

1) What percentage of the pot does you call represent?
2) What percentage of the time (approx) will you hit one of 8 outs on the turn or river?
3) Is the second percentage greater or less than the first, and what does that tell you about whether you should call?

Now it's a bit more complicated than that, as if he has a set, he has 7 outs (6 to a boat and one to quads) OTT, and if he misses that he has 10 outs OTR, as you noted, so sometimes you'll both hit. That will happen approx 10.5% (your percentage times his, remembering the decimals) of the time, lowering your equity approx by that amount.

Is it still a call?

call - 4:1
8 outs = 2:1 -- (32%)

so call

super close..

Good work. I usually work in percents, others prefer ratios. I wouldn't mix them together as it's easy to get confused. Pick which one you like to work with and use it all the time, imo. I like percents as they are easy to figure with the rule of 2 and 4 and just dividing the amount you're looking to call by the total pot to figure out the equity you need.

So yeah, in percents if you put in $50, the pot will be 240. 50/240 0.2083, aka 20.83%. So as long as your equity is above that, it's a call. This is basically the same as 4:1. You have 80% on one side and and 20% on the other, which simplifies to 8:2 and then to 4:1.

As you correctly figured, you have about a 32% chance of hitting a straight with 8 outs.

For the more complicated part, let me show you how I got the equity reduction estimate. If you have a 32% chance to hit, and he has a 34% chance to hit (14% OTT and if he misses, 20% OTR) then to figure out the chance of hitting but still losing you multiply your chances and his to get the chances of both happening. 0.32*0.34=0.1088, or 10.88%. If you subtract that from your odds of hitting outs, you get an estimated equity of 21.12%, so as you said it is super close, but still a call.

Real mathematicians who read this are probably cringing. This is all estimates, but it's stuff you can do at the table. To get an idea of how little rounding can make for bigger changes when we go through multiple operations like this, if you plug the hand in to pokerstove and give him a range of only sets, you show up with 24.646% equity, which is a more profitable call than the one our estimates showed us.

Since you read is that he's a nit, I assume he either has a set or a straight.

It looks like the pot is 64 on the flop. Adding your first 25 and fish's 25 it's 114. Then $80 from V (assuming he always calls the last 5) and 55 more from you makes it 249. 55/249 is about 22%, so that's what you need to put it in.

Against 88–TT exactly, you have 24.6% so this is a +EV spot (though close).

I'm not sure why you are discounting the possibility of a flopped straight so easily though. The nits I play with are far more likely to show up with QJs here than a set, since they're afraid of the straight and don't want to put more money in unless they boat up. Against QJs, you have only 7% so this is an easy fold.

If you give him both sets and nut straights (JQs exclusively) then you only have 20%, making this a slightly losing call. Note that the more straights you give him, the more your equity drops (ex. giving him JQo lowers it to 14%). However, if you give him 2-pair hands then your equity starts to increase (ex. giving him T9s brings it up to 21.8%).

So this comes down to what kind of nit he is. If he's the kind of nit who will limp/call hands like JQo and only raise with the nuts, then this is a clear fold. If he's a nit who only has sets here, it's a marginal call. In game, I'd probably just call this off but if I have a read then it's a clear fold (ex. never calling against one OMC I know who only ever has exclusively QJs here).

That being said, we never should have gotten ourselves here. $55+25+21 means we started the hand with ~$100. Playing 34BB is non-sensical in a cash game and means we should be committing ourselves on most hands we decide to play. So raise flop to $25 and shove every flop. Your range will be ahead of most limp/call ranges and you'll win a decent amount of the time with A high. AP, just shove the flop the first time around. Calling $25 and leaving $55 behind makes no sense. Just get it in to maximize fold equity.

This guy just shows up when promo are running in hopes to win some promo money. He is just sitting there and waiting for AK,AA,KK,QQ, pocket pairs and hoping to see some cheap $3 flop. I think he would of folded QJ pre-flop. I thought both players would of folded to my pre-flop raise.. So, it shows I don't know as much, as I think I do.

I'm skeptical that he calls 88 pre but folds QJs unless he literally only plays pairs.

Anyways, if you are 100% confident that he always has a set here then it's a decent time to call it off. Though you could actually save your last $5 if your read is that confident (call here, x/f pair turns, x/c all others).