I agree with your comment I think I just got lucky with a paired flop. On average an average flop I mostly be in a terrible spot.

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Even on this flop vs AQ, you were just a 60/40 favorite.

Nice hand as played, you have to be right very often to make the call +EV overall.

Fine pre. I'd probably call with position and someone already all in. Iso re-raising is fine too. I'd prefer to do it with something like AQ that blocks some bigger hands.

Fold the flop. V2 has a lot of better pp in his range that would shove the flop. It would be a very ballsy flop shove with something like AK or AQ and having to still showdown with V1.

the 4bet pre was really bad. Thinking about calling the shove otf is even worse. the hand was over played to the max.

I disagree - against this Villan it's ok to 4bet to go heads up

to $100? he needs to call $70 more. He's not folding pre in a 3way pot for just over a min raise.

If hero really wanted to squeeze why not just jam pre? what's he calling with then?

I agree with you 100% - hero did not bet proper amount but the idea of squeezing was good

Wow. Nice win. I'm not sure calling is +EV for the side pot.

I assume he has all 12 JJ/TT combos. If he does this with 12 of the 32 AK/AQ combos:

77 vs. JJ/TT = 10%
77 vs. AQ/AK = 60%

EV = .1(390) + .9(-250) = -186
EV = .6(390) + .4(-250) = 134

EV = -52

This is a little pessimistic, since we have equity in the main pot too. When he has JJ, the 10% of times we win the side pot I bet we win the main pot too. That adds $9 of EV to your first calculation. Now, assume we win the main pot about half the time we're ahead v. overcards. that adds another $27 of equity in your second calculation, and now we're getting pretty close to even.

Yeah. A V1 preflop shoving range on 88+/KQ+ gives hero a main pot equity of 10% - 33%. So add $9-$30 of EV.

I guess I thought shoving 12 of the 32 combos of AQ+ was optimistic. Really need villain to do this will all 16 AQ combos to make this profitable. We should discount AK combos because villain should raise in MP with AK.

Agreed with this. I assume AK is usually a raise and AQ or AJ often is as well. On the other hand, he has some hands like JT and QT (esp. suited) that also have straight outs and may bluff here.

If we add 22-66 combos to V range we should be well into the positive. I think we add these because to the tilting reads we have on V.
Also by definition tilting causes us to make irrational decisions so applying a completely rational thought process for V might not be the best thing. We can increase the chances of him bluffing Vs value.

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Yes, if he plays under pairs this way it's a pretty easy call since there are as many under pairs as there are over pairs. That said shoving 22 here is super spewy

Yes, that's true about the lower pairs.

I find it strange, though, that the tilted V didn't 5-bet shove AQ pre.

Instead he called off almost 1/3 of stacks to see a flop, whiff the flop, and over shove.

Never would have put AQ in his range.

Interesting spot.

I think there are a some of leaks in you're thinking during this hand.

Unless you saw the guy make this kind of a bluff in his history, assuming his jam is a bluff is usually the opposite. Overbets and/or pot sized bets otf in llsnl are usually a made hand or a "bet to protect" such as TT, JJ or QQ who doesn't wanna see an ace or a king come out since it's in your 3bet range you can't assume only a drawing hand would shove. You need to put made hands in his range. The pot was 230 and he bet 250, it's not like he bet 2.5x pot. If he is only on a draw, what would he call 100 pre with? TJ is the very bottom of his range. I don't think he's calling almost a third of his stack pre with 9x, but if he did have A9s, your click it back 4bet does look like aces, so he would probably assume you would call it off. if you never saw him bluff (especially in a 3 way 3bet pot), I wouldn't think this has to be a bluff or semi bluff only. I don't think we can say "he's on tilt" just because he had to fold a few hands pre to 3bets. Even if he's shaking his head in discuss, it doesn't mean he's going to lose control, go crazy and spew off all of his chips. He showed good control the past few hands when he had to fold pre to 3bets.

I'm not being results disoriented, but the result of the hand is not what matters. it's what happens the next 99 times you're in this same spot.