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Old 08-25-2015, 02:45 PM   #26
Willyoman
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
All of this. The fact that we are greater than 20:1 to hit a hand we can put stacks in with is also why the fact that we are getting 8:1 or whatever to call the 3 bet is completely irrelevant.

Calling pre is a VERY fundamental misunderstanding of the effects of stack to pot ratio.

OP, you should stop reading NLTAP and get PNLHE immediately.
I agree that we should fold pre-flop the first time.

But sorry, I can't disagree more about folding the second time around.

SPR isn't a key consideration in this hand. Sometimes, the direct odds are enough. For a simple example, I'll happily play a flop with an SPR of 2 with a pocket pair if I'm getting ~8:1 pre-flop - those direct odds are enough to set mine even with very few (if any) chips left behind in stacks. Sometimes the direct odds are so compelling that they're even more relevant than implied odds.

Once it gets back to us pre-flop, the main considerations in the OP hand are indeed the direct odds as well as position and the remaining chips left in stacks around the table, not the actual SPR. Implied odds are relevant, as always, but they're also a bit less important given that we're getting a whopping 8:1 direct (and by the way, we also close pre-flop action).

In terms of position, unfortunately we will be out of position, and that is a clear negative. That said, 8:1 is sufficient to overcome it, and of course, talking about implied odds, it's very important to note that with 4 villains starting with $500 and calling off $50, there is another ($500-$50) * 4 / $35 = 51x our pre-flop call in stacks on the table post-flop. OF COURSE we won't win it all. But let's just be clear that even though the SPR might be low, the direct odds pre are exceptional, AND there is a huge amount of money behind in stacks around the table.

Venice, I think your math is slightly off and, even moreso, incomplete. You said we're 20:1 to hit two-pair+. I don't have Flopzilla, but I found these odds online... with suited 1 gap hole cards, the odds of flopping a made monster are:

Quads: 0.01%
Full House: 0.09%
Flush: 0.84%
Straight: 0.98%
Trips: 1.30%
2-pair: 2.02%

That adds up to 5.24%. And I'll nit pick - that's actually 18:1 and not 20:1.

We're already getting 8:1. So even JUST to pursue those made monsters on the flop, we actually need to win only (18-8) * 35 = $350 more post-flop those times that we do flop a made monster. Said another way, we need to win 10x our pre-flop call when we flop a monster to make the pre-flop call profitable. As I noted, there are 51x times left in villains' stacks.

Your analysis showing $700 is missing a few things. For one, it's based on 20:1 instead of 18:1. And you're also missing the fact that we don't have to win that much... when the pot comes back to us pre-flop, it already has 215 in it. Even based on your 20:1 figure, we only need to win (20-8) * $35 = $420 more. But again, because it's 18:1 and not 20:1, we actually need to win $70 less, and $420 - $70 = the $350 I illustrated above.

I can't for sure say yes that we'll on average win that 10x when we make a monster... but yes, it definitely seems possible and likely that we could... and yes, we should also consider some small RIO issues... but there's more...

Your analysis completely ignores the possibility of flopping a flush draw and straight draw. 75s isn't a premium hand, but it does have a decent amount of value that is not reflected in an analysis that only looks at flopped made monsters. It's connected and suited, and your analysis ignores so much of that value. We have the following odds to flop the following draws... and you're totally ignoring this in your analysis:

Straight draw: 8.08%
Flush draw: 10.50%

So another 18.58% of the time - or better than 5:1 - we'll flop a good draw.

It's hard to quantify the precise value of that draw, just as it's difficult to quantify the potential value of any possible fold equity post-flop. Suffice to say, the math and strategic considerations say that calling pre-flop after the raise is +EV. It will be a tricky spot... we're oop with a marginal hand... and I don't totally fault a fold. I certainly would have folded the first time around. So we agree on that, for sure. But I totally disagree with any sense that calling the raise is a big mistake... folding is OK if you're concerned about playing oop multi-way, but calling is actually clearly the best play and +EV.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:55 PM   #27
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

Oh yeah, I was also confused by OP's writing... looks like the direct odds are a bit > 6:1 and not 8:1... I thought there were 5 other callers at first. That actually does make a difference, but I still think we can call it pre-flop. Obviously, I would have folded first, but the situation has changed after we raise, and we need to assess it differently.
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:07 PM   #28
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

But yes, at 6:1, I do think we're getting very close to the cut-off, so it's close.
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Old 08-25-2015, 07:10 PM   #29
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

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Originally Posted by danhendo888 View Post
Thank you for your responses everyone

Started reading No Limit Theory & Practice for the first time today, and am finding it very, very useful
Slowly but surely, I'll get to the other books too, including PNLHE
Why did you raise PF?
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:44 PM   #30
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

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Why did you raise PF?
No reason whatsoever to be honest. Just played it like a fish; the cards looked pretty and that's about it.

I was tired, hungry and tilting at the time. Ability to focus and concentrate was non-existent. I wasn't thinking about the fundamentals and I certainly wasn't planning hands.

No particularly deep reasoning behind raising UTG
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:45 PM   #31
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

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Originally Posted by AbqDave View Post
For further reading, consider Miller et al "Professional No Limit Hold Em." Pay particular attention to the discussion of stack-to-pot ratios.
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
OP, you should stop reading NLTAP and get PNLHE immediately.
Yeap, I'm reading PNLHE right now and am finding it more helpful, thank you.
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:58 PM   #32
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Re: 57s: Fold pre?

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
I agree that we should fold pre-flop the first time.

But sorry, I can't disagree more about folding the second time around.

SPR isn't a key consideration in this hand. Sometimes, the direct odds are enough. For a simple example, I'll happily play a flop with an SPR of 2 with a pocket pair if I'm getting ~8:1 pre-flop - those direct odds are enough to set mine even with very few (if any) chips left behind in stacks. Sometimes the direct odds are so compelling that they're even more relevant than implied odds.

Once it gets back to us pre-flop, the main considerations in the OP hand are indeed the direct odds as well as position and the remaining chips left in stacks around the table, not the actual SPR. Implied odds are relevant, as always, but they're also a bit less important given that we're getting a whopping 8:1 direct (and by the way, we also close pre-flop action).

In terms of position, unfortunately we will be out of position, and that is a clear negative. That said, 8:1 is sufficient to overcome it, and of course, talking about implied odds, it's very important to note that with 4 villains starting with $500 and calling off $50, there is another ($500-$50) * 4 / $35 = 51x our pre-flop call in stacks on the table post-flop. OF COURSE we won't win it all. But let's just be clear that even though the SPR might be low, the direct odds pre are exceptional, AND there is a huge amount of money behind in stacks around the table.

Venice, I think your math is slightly off and, even moreso, incomplete. You said we're 20:1 to hit two-pair+. I don't have Flopzilla, but I found these odds online... with suited 1 gap hole cards, the odds of flopping a made monster are:

Quads: 0.01%
Full House: 0.09%
Flush: 0.84%
Straight: 0.98%
Trips: 1.30%
2-pair: 2.02%

That adds up to 5.24%. And I'll nit pick - that's actually 18:1 and not 20:1.

We're already getting 8:1. So even JUST to pursue those made monsters on the flop, we actually need to win only (18-8) * 35 = $350 more post-flop those times that we do flop a made monster. Said another way, we need to win 10x our pre-flop call when we flop a monster to make the pre-flop call profitable. As I noted, there are 51x times left in villains' stacks.

Your analysis showing $700 is missing a few things. For one, it's based on 20:1 instead of 18:1. And you're also missing the fact that we don't have to win that much... when the pot comes back to us pre-flop, it already has 215 in it. Even based on your 20:1 figure, we only need to win (20-8) * $35 = $420 more. But again, because it's 18:1 and not 20:1, we actually need to win $70 less, and $420 - $70 = the $350 I illustrated above.

I can't for sure say yes that we'll on average win that 10x when we make a monster... but yes, it definitely seems possible and likely that we could... and yes, we should also consider some small RIO issues... but there's more...

Your analysis completely ignores the possibility of flopping a flush draw and straight draw. 75s isn't a premium hand, but it does have a decent amount of value that is not reflected in an analysis that only looks at flopped made monsters. It's connected and suited, and your analysis ignores so much of that value. We have the following odds to flop the following draws... and you're totally ignoring this in your analysis:

Straight draw: 8.08%
Flush draw: 10.50%

So another 18.58% of the time - or better than 5:1 - we'll flop a good draw.

It's hard to quantify the precise value of that draw, just as it's difficult to quantify the potential value of any possible fold equity post-flop. Suffice to say, the math and strategic considerations say that calling pre-flop after the raise is +EV. It will be a tricky spot... we're oop with a marginal hand... and I don't totally fault a fold. I certainly would have folded the first time around. So we agree on that, for sure. But I totally disagree with any sense that calling the raise is a big mistake... folding is OK if you're concerned about playing oop multi-way, but calling is actually clearly the best play and +EV.
Sure. Now give us our equity on a gin flop, rather than assuming we have the nuts every time. If you do that, you're back up to needing another $50 or $75 behind to justify the call.

Under these circumstances, our draw is going to be super hard to play. That was why i said this hand fundamentally misunderstands the effects of SPR. Because with a bloated pot like this, you're not going to have any maneuvering room. You dont have enough behind to justify calling a reasonable bet on the flop. Our best strategy for playing this hand is going to be something like flop gin 5% and shovel money, flop both straight and flush draws check shove, and c/f anything else to any reasonable bet.

You're going to be hard pressed to break even with that strategy; I doubt if it's really possible, tbh, because real people make mistakes post flop, and another of the effects of this SPR is that there's not enough money behind to recover from mistakes.

In all seriousness, if you're willing to call the 3 bet with 75s, you're basically advocating calling it with any suited hand. The only difference between 75s and J3s is the straight possibilities, which is only about 1 in a thousand hands, plus the straight draw, which we're going to be too shallow to play profitably.
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