Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
All of this. The fact that we are greater than 20:1 to hit a hand we can put stacks in with is also why the fact that we are getting 8:1 or whatever to call the 3 bet is completely irrelevant.
Calling pre is a VERY fundamental misunderstanding of the effects of stack to pot ratio.
OP, you should stop reading NLTAP and get PNLHE immediately.
I agree that we should fold pre-flop the first time.
But sorry, I can't disagree more about folding the second time around.
SPR isn't a key consideration in this hand. Sometimes, the direct odds are enough. For a simple example, I'll happily play a flop with an SPR of 2 with a pocket pair if I'm getting ~8:1 pre-flop - those direct odds are enough to set mine even with very few (if any) chips left behind in stacks. Sometimes the direct odds are so compelling that they're even more relevant than implied odds.
Once it gets back to us pre-flop, the main considerations in the OP hand are indeed the direct odds as well as position and the remaining chips left in stacks around the table, not the actual SPR. Implied odds are relevant, as always, but they're also a bit less important given that we're getting a whopping 8:1 direct (and by the way, we also close pre-flop action).
In terms of position, unfortunately we will be out of position, and that is a clear negative. That said, 8:1 is sufficient to overcome it, and of course, talking about implied odds, it's very important to note that with 4 villains starting with $500 and calling off $50, there is another ($500-$50) * 4 / $35 = 51x our pre-flop call in stacks on the table post-flop. OF COURSE we won't win it all. But let's just be clear that even though the SPR might be low, the direct odds pre are exceptional, AND there is a huge amount of money behind in stacks around the table.
Venice, I think your math is slightly off and, even moreso, incomplete. You said we're 20:1 to hit two-pair+. I don't have Flopzilla, but I found these odds online... with suited 1 gap hole cards, the odds of flopping a made monster are:
Quads: 0.01%
Full House: 0.09%
Flush: 0.84%
Straight: 0.98%
Trips: 1.30%
2-pair: 2.02%
That adds up to 5.24%. And I'll nit pick - that's actually 18:1 and not 20:1.
We're already getting 8:1. So even JUST to pursue those made monsters on the flop, we actually need to win only (18-8) * 35 = $350 more post-flop those times that we do flop a made monster. Said another way, we need to win 10x our pre-flop call when we flop a monster to make the pre-flop call profitable. As I noted, there are 51x times left in villains' stacks.
Your analysis showing $700 is missing a few things. For one, it's based on 20:1 instead of 18:1. And you're also missing the fact that we don't have to win that much... when the pot comes back to us pre-flop, it already has 215 in it. Even based on your 20:1 figure, we only need to win (20-8) * $35 = $420 more. But again, because it's 18:1 and not 20:1, we actually need to win $70 less, and $420 - $70 = the $350 I illustrated above.
I can't for sure say yes that we'll on average win that 10x when we make a monster... but yes, it definitely seems possible and likely that we could... and yes, we should also consider some small RIO issues... but there's more...
Your analysis completely ignores the possibility of flopping a flush draw and straight draw. 75s isn't a premium hand, but it does have a decent amount of value that is not reflected in an analysis that only looks at flopped made monsters. It's connected and suited, and your analysis ignores so much of that value. We have the following odds to flop the following draws... and you're totally ignoring this in your analysis:
Straight draw: 8.08%
Flush draw: 10.50%
So another 18.58% of the time - or better than 5:1 - we'll flop a good draw.
It's hard to quantify the precise value of that draw, just as it's difficult to quantify the potential value of any possible fold equity post-flop. Suffice to say, the math and strategic considerations say that calling pre-flop after the raise is +EV. It will be a tricky spot... we're oop with a marginal hand... and I don't totally fault a fold. I certainly would have folded the first time around. So we agree on that, for sure. But I totally disagree with any sense that calling the raise is a big mistake... folding is OK if you're concerned about playing oop multi-way, but calling is actually clearly the best play and +EV.