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08-25-2016 , 01:31 PM

Scorpion

grinder

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 490

1/2nl. 20 minutes on new table not much for reads. Utg + 2 just lost a cooler and shoves blind for $40. Folds to button ($300) who cold calls and I look and see 55 ($280). Button has raised 3-4 pots in this time but no showdowns. Best play?

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08-25-2016 , 01:57 PM

QuadJ

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Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 6,237

Best option is fold. You can't get the odd to set mine and your hand won't play well post flop without a set so calling is out. You are ahead of UTG+2's ATC range but 55 not that far head. Not far enough to justify risking any money on a raise to try and get button out of the out.

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08-25-2016 , 02:14 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,781

With no reads, OOP, and for that much of your stack, just fold.

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08-25-2016 , 02:16 PM

Javanewt

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,781

Of course, if you want to have some fun and get the feeling BTN will fold you can shove and set your image for the night! Will only work if you can use that image and you can comfortably lose $280 and rebuy.

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08-25-2016 , 03:14 PM

monikrazy

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,055

Very easy fold

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08-25-2016 , 03:37 PM

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,349

jam

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08-25-2016 , 04:07 PM

br3nt00

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,664

55 is substantially ahead of ATC I would guess 65%. I am not sure folding is the right move here

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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08-25-2016 , 04:20 PM

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

Are you 100% certain UTG+2 shoved blind? This is often an angle.

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08-25-2016 , 04:21 PM

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by br3nt00

55 is substantially ahead of ATC I would guess 65%. I am not sure folding is the right move here

55 is only 60% vs. ATC.

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08-25-2016 , 04:58 PM

#10

donkatruck

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

jam

I would say if Button had QQ+ he'd play it this way. If you like to gambool, it's probably ever so slightly +EV to jam here, but we are essentially hoping button folds just for the opportunity to play a 60% fav against blind raiser. Just seems not worth it for $280 risk.

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08-25-2016 , 05:23 PM

#11

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,349

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkatruck

Of course we hope button folds. What are the odds he was dealt QQ+? That's what we're betting on essentially.

If the variance is gonna hurt us, fold obv.

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08-26-2016 , 09:07 AM

#12

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

$140.

Call a shove.

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08-26-2016 , 09:11 AM

#13

scrybe

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 956

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

$140.

Call a shove.

If you are gonna play, this is the way to do it I think. Looks stronger than a shove.

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08-26-2016 , 09:37 AM

#14

Javanewt

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$140 might look stronger, but if he shoves, we're toast. He knows we are never (or should never) fold our last $140. Would really suck to have to call off the last $140 knowing we are probably behind. I'd rather just go for it.

Plus, he could decide to gamble and just call the $140, which is a lot easier than gambling for $280. If we shove any flop, he's only calling with better -- I doubt he'd fold any pair at that point, unless an A or K falls and he doesn't have one.

If I'm going to gii with 55, I'm doing it now while I think I have the best hand. And I like the image.

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08-26-2016 , 09:52 AM

#15

scrybe

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 956

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

if he has a monster, bet/calling $140 and jamming $280 now are equivalent, right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

Plus, he could decide to gamble and just call the $140, which is a lot easier than gambling for $280. If we shove any flop, he's only calling with better -- I doubt he'd fold any pair at that point, unless an A or K falls and he doesn't have one.

if there is any chance he is flatting $140 and folding to a flop shove then i like $140/ship flop even better.

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08-26-2016 , 10:09 AM

#16

Playbig2000

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Quote:

Originally Posted by scrybe

if he has a monster, bet/calling $140 and jamming $280 now are equivalent, right?

Not at all. If we 3bet to 140 and the button shoves, calling that off with 55 is terrible. What do you think our equity is against his range that you would call it off?

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08-26-2016 , 10:27 AM

#17

scrybe

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 956

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

Not at all. If we 3bet to 140 and the button shoves, calling that off with 55 is terrible. What do you think our equity is against his range that you would call it off?

i never said that it was a profitable play. i said in the event he has a monster (i.e., KK-AA) jamming $280 now is no different than bet/calling.

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08-26-2016 , 10:29 AM

#18

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

I cant see how raising to $140 and then folding makes any sense. In a 1/2 game I would put button on JJ+ AQs+ if he shoves over top of us which puts us at 40%. Im not folding for another $140 with $460 in the pot.

Of course I would never make it $140 in the first place.

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08-26-2016 , 10:31 AM

#19

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,349

Quote:

Originally Posted by scrybe

i never said that it was a profitable play. i said in the event he has a monster (i.e., KK-AA) jamming $280 now is no different than bet/calling.

if we raise to 140, it would look to the button we're just trying to isolate. I think that would induce him to jam even lighter.

Jamming now and bet/calling are different because if we bet/called, we would have had the chance to lay down the hand to a button jam that crushes us, but we wouldn't be in that spot to begin with.

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08-26-2016 , 10:33 AM

#20

johnny_on_the_spot

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Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Fold or jam IMO.

Kinda depends on the table image you want + how much variance you're willing to deal with

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08-26-2016 , 10:35 AM

#21

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

if we raise to 140, it would look to the button we're just trying to isolate. I think that would induce him to jam even lighter.

Jamming now and bet/calling are different because if we bet/called, we would have had the chance to lay down the hand to a button jam, but we wouldn't be in that spot to begin with.

So why would you fold after making it $140 then?

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08-26-2016 , 10:36 AM

#22

scrybe

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 956

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

not ever laying down to button jam getting better than 3:1. we're 2.65:1 vs. KK+ AKs.

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08-26-2016 , 10:47 AM

#23

Playbig2000

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3:1 is a good setmine odd?

That range is much too narrow for him to jam. It's going to me a lot wider imo.

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08-26-2016 , 10:50 AM

#24

MikeStarr

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

3:1 is a good setmine odd?

You are making no sense at all. First you said you like a raise to $140 but calling it off with 55 would be horrible.

I would give button a range of JJ+ AQs+ if he shoves over top of us. That gives is 40% equity getting better than 3:1

You said button will shove even lighter than normal since he may think we are tying to iso. If thats true, we probably have closer to 50% equity. Why would we be thinking about set mining getting more than 3:1 when we are a coin flip?

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08-26-2016 , 10:55 AM

#25

PFunkaliscious

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 3,061

fold or shove. but calling is a disaster.

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