Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
@ Minatorr
I just don't think most older ladies bet their draws here nor most of their mediocre hands (like middle pair with / without draw, etc.) plus she called a raise preflop (which might eliminate some weaker Ax). Basically this is mostly biggish Ax at minimum, so I'm not loving our FE (especially when combined with the times we ~punt a 3x PSB when running into monsters).
GimoG
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,420 games 0.000 secs 484,000 games/sec
Board: 6h Ah 7d 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.868% 40.50% 00.37% 980 9.00 { 5h4h }
Hand 1: 59.132% 58.76% 00.37% 1422 9.00 { 7d7h, 7h7s, AQs-A4s, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 98s, 8h7h, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 6d5d, 6h5h, AQo-AJo }
Here is the range based off your assumptions:
1) She doesn't call weak Ax pre, so I gave her only AJo/AQo instead of A10-. I gave her all suited aces, which is fairly reasonable. Of course in practice, some of these hands like A2s/A3s/AJo are 10-20% folds pre from her but for simplicity let's just give full weight. Even if you do mixed frequencies of AJo/A2s/A3s in the analysis the equity hardly changes at all, like .1-.2 in one direction or the other.
2) She is not betting pair + draw or any straight draws at all. This is never true, she bets her draws/pairs + draw at a non-zero frequency even if it is a low frequency. But I'm doing worse-case scenario and using your assumptions for this range.
3) I didn't give her too many flush draws. She could arrive to the turn with 10-15 flush draws, but let's just be conservative and say she only bets 4 of them.
I gave her 2 combos of sets (say she traps otf with them with 1/3 frequency), and gave her about half combos of weak SCs 65s/76s, and for 87s I went by your assumption she doesn't bet pair + draw and only gave her 87hh, pair + combo draw.
One of the absolute worse case scenarios, and we still have 41% equity. We aren't even far off from my range (only 2%), and I took out many hands and changed the ranges based off your assumptions and worst-case scenario.
Realistically, her range will probably look like something in-between this (worst case scenario) and mine (slightly optimistic). Regardless, we still have a load of equity and vs a tight woman, you think we have low fold equity?
If someone took this line vs you, or if someone posted this in reverse HH, almost everyone would say fold with everything but two pair+. She can easily put us on AK/AQ or a trapped monster, and have to fold her Ax. I personally expect this bluff to get through often enough.
What bluffs do we even have here? If we had J10hh or KQhh, those are just dbl barrels or x/c's at an extremely high frequency.
Last edited by Minatorr; 12-10-2018 at 07:17 PM.