I actually like this line, and I disagree that she's calling that often. This feels like the perfect spot for V to fold her AQ / AJ face up with a smug grin. We're only getting called imo by the top of her range, which is a small amount of hands, and against which we have good equity. I give her a calling range of AK, A7s, A6s, A5s, discounted (A7o-A5o), 77, 66, and exactly 98hh. Against that range, we have ~38%, which is great, and I think she's folding a large part of her range.

Against JUST her range when she calls, we have -(300)*0.62 + 445*(0.38) = -16.9
Against her entire range, assuming she folds 40% of the time (folding all aces less than AK and naked FDs) we have .40(145) + .60(-16.9) = 48. This is massively +EV.

If you disagree, tell me which assumptions you think are wrong.

And the other 99% of the time when you don't flop 15 outers and turn 20 outers?

I don't understand what point your trying to make. Can you clarify.

Not a line I am going to take, but I see merits. And it does put a lot of pressure on hands that are ahead of us.

I think it's an unbalanced line. You're never going to be playing a value hand that way given how much of villain's range you can extract value from.

Further, unless you are a complete unknown than villain is going to have seen the kind of speculative hands you play for a raise.

Good luck getting someone to lay down Ax for barely 100 BB's when they see you opening stuff like 54s in EP.

As Minatorr suggests, against a stabby villain this might be a decent value line.

GIprobablydon'tconsiderthislineasmuchasIshouldG

There are countless number of better boards than this to let a stabby villain hang himself.

Well, this is why I avoid this spot by folding the first time. But once we see the flop this way I have no problem with anything postflop.

it's an iffy line, but it is reasonable because it should break even, we seemingly have a breakeven spot when called and we make money exactly on the times she folds

but it may not be optimum, if we just check/call here and lead when we hit while folding when we miss, then that is a break even line as well and we make money when she calls the river with a losing hand

this is all read dependent but it's not very easy to pry out a victory on this board, it's mostly breakeven regardless of what we do. reads should guide us here, if she folds to the c/r a lot it's a good play, if she tends to get sticky then it's not

the problem with the c/r is that it doesn't make sense and people start hitting the call button when it doesn't make sense, also, people just in general are not good at bet/folding, bet/folding takes discipline and gamblers normally have none

c/c turn, shoving any river might be a better bluff attempt but it's really not necessary at this point to have any bluffs as we can call for pure value and then try and play a river to a profit

honestly leading turn, c/c turn, and c/r turn all seem about break even, so if she folded a better hand you made a good play, if you got called it was a bad play, because we really only make money here by making the right read

+1

Weaker SDV?

We have the weakest pair here, if they check back 88-1010 or pair + draw im completely fine with that.

I didnt ignore that V can check back. It just doesnt particular matter whether they check or bet to me, as if they bet we can x/jam to max FE and have good equity when called and if they check that’s cool too.

If they check i realize my equity for free without having to barrel turn and having not much fold equity vs Ax/two pairs/some sets/some straights/pair + draw/strong FDs. It’s not like we’re betting for value, and we rarely get a better hand to fold.

Who cares if it’s unbalanced? 99.9% of live regs, dont triple barrel anywhere near the optimal/GTO/balanced frequency. Live regs’ dbling barreling frequencies, flop x/r frequencies, turn raise freq, and river raise freq are also all basically all unbalanced af. We can be unbalanced because we are playing against a bunch of donks. And in a lot of situations the unbalanced line is by far the most +EV.

Maybe if we had a terrible image this line is just meh/slightly -EV, but if you’re playing against someone who hasnt gotten OOL and suddenly x/r’s you ott, you’re most likely folding one pair hands at a very high frequency.

I just dont give credit for an older/semi tight lady to be calling off here anywhere close to 80-100% of the time. Saying she folds less than 10% or even 15% is pretty absurd.

If we posted this in reverse HH and we had Ax ott, i guarantee at least 70% of the posters would say something like snap fold, lol ez fold, etc

I can get it if you believe that dbl barreling is more +EV than x/jamming, we all have our different opinions but saying this is a torch or donk-off can’t be true.

Yah there's going to be some JJ-88 that is calling flop and folding to further aggression.

If you're going to play this hand from EP (which I don't advocate doing) you want to play it in a way that maximizes FE. I don't think a FPS x/jam accomplishes that.

I'd like 80/90 turn -> 230/250 on river.

You give yourself two more chances to fold out better rather than only one with the x/jam and the near pot turn barrel credibly reps a stronger range threatening the river shove than x/jam ever will. And you can still get value from NFD's like KQ, KJ, KT that want to overpay OTT.

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it can't be a disaster if it gets checked behind when we have the effective nut low

this play is fine because we can't make a mistake in this spot it's all about maximizing our ev vs specific player types

Johnny winning this thread. Rest of you are just making stuff up based on what happened.

Lul.

Agree,

Don't think range given is anything close to what old lady bets on turn. Especially old lady that must understand bet sizing at least a little given she sized well on turn.

Definitely not most EV line IMO. But we are in spot where only true mistake would be folding. Both calling and raising are going to show +EV.

Overbetting or potting turn (need smaller flop size to set this up) also massively +EV. I would be over betting alot my premiums in this spot. 89hh included (wouldn't open 54).


Agree there are zero value hands most guys would play this way. And a lot of mediocre poker players will definitely pick up on this. So semblance of balance does matter.

But, as exploitative line to get tight older lady to fold. Is definitely +EV.

My guess is OP didn't plan this check/raise. But just clicked a button after opportunity was awarded. It honestly was very profitable decision.

I like overbetting and jamming river too, it might be a better way to play it overall, I think people will fold Ax more often than taking this line but having played a lot of tournaments, this is a stand by line for me. I think having it your arsenal makes people check Ax more often OTT, there is some metagame to having a check raising range on the turn

hopefully we won the hand, it's clearly not a mistake to play it this way some of the time so I'm cool with it