2/3/5 cash game. I have about $700 and villain has about $550. Villain has not been playing a lot of hands and not too crazy. I feel like he is competent. He has not 3bet once up until this point. My image is probably tight, not playing too many hands. But playing aggressively when I have a hand. I have a lot of thoughts on V ranges and best way to play hand but want to hear other people's thoughts first.

I open to $15 from UTG with KJo. This is either a limp or fold for me usually but I had folded for so long that I decided to play it. V is directly to my left and he 3bets to $30. Person to V left calls and everybody else folds to me. I call $15.

Flop ( $100 ). Qc Tc 5d. I check, V checks and person behind checks.

Turn ( $100 ). 9d. I have the nuts. I check, V bets $50, next player folds. I raise to $150. V tanks for a long time and then he calls.

River ($400). 2s.

What range do you put V on by the river. What is the best play?

Fold pre (I assume this is full ring 9 handed right?). Then fold again when you get 3 bet by a tight/competent player (which he can't be anyways because wtf 2x 3 bet vs UTG open?). On the river, bet for value - I would go around 1/2 pot or less.

I agree I normally fold pre. But once there is a raise, min reraise and then a call, I think I'm getting a good price on my call.

Since there aren't a lot of responses, I'm just going to post my entire thoughts on this hand.

When V min 3b raises me preflop, I am putting him on a fairly tight range of hands. Let's say: TT+,AQ+. He has some weird random bluffs like JTs or maybe some other weird hands but I really think his range is heavily weighted towards value 3b since I raised UTG.

On the flop I think V should be betting 100% of his value range because the board is very drawy. TT,QQ,KK,AA,AQ should all strongly consider betting. I see almost no merit to slow playing a big hand. If V range preflop is weighted towards TT+,AQ+ and he should be betting all the hands above, then his checking range is very likely JJ,AK.

On the turn I thought about betting with the nuts. But now there are 2 flush draws and tons of pair + straight draw combinations that I really thought one of the 2 behind me would bet so I checked. When V bets, I see no reason to slow play, especially because board has so many draws.

When V calls the turn, I think AKcc, AKdd, JJ all seem like very reasonable hands that might check back the flop and bet the turn and then call c/r on the turn. His range is comprised of hands which are all very weak at this point. I think he would reraise turn with QQ,TT,99 if he has those hands.

So on the river I had a decision to make. Do I bet ( jam, half pot, 1/4 pot to induce ) or do I check? If V bet the flop, called the c/r on the turn, I would jam the river. He should have lots of hands that would consider calling a river jam. But because V checked the flop, he should have almost zero hands that call a large bet on the river. He should have very few hands to even call a small bet on the river. He is heavily weighted towards missed draws.

What does my range look like when I c/r the turn and then check the river. It looks like I missed my draw. I could have hands like JT, QJ, flush draws, etc. Nobody would expect me to c/r turn and then check the river with the nuts.

So what I liked about this hand is that from V perspective he should jam when I check the river a very high % of time. And he should fold when I bet a very high % of the time. So the correct play seems to be to check and let V bluff his chips.

Fold pre but once he makes that tiny 3b I call as well

I bet turn I think it will get checked through way too often. River I think he may have hands like AKdd AJdd, Maybe some weird AA KK type hands, Anyways I jam either way I don't think he bluffs his missed AKdd AJdd he probably just takes SD I jam and hope to see some weird played AA QQ

+1

I think your thinking is fine, but I would actually bluff-catch with my bluff-catchers instead of this hand. You're not blocking almost any of his slow-played hands.

Real mg and Imaginary fr,
I respect you guys both as posters, and it kinda threw me off that you both disagree with me regarding pre (I think its a clear fold). I mean, this is a moot point anyway because we don't find ourselves in this spot, but still I'd like to understand why we disagree. I don't think that hot and cold equity pre ("oh I have a good price to call" etc') is nearly as important as other factors, especially our position and type of our holding. Our position sucks, our hand is rather face up as a mediocre one at best, it is dominated by so many hands in both of opponents' ranges, it is RIO nightmare. Now convince me to call, please?

Villian's description about not playing many hands being a nit etc and the price I just call, i think we have implied odds.We are getting 5:1. I'm not worried about RIO I just don't think it will be that difficult to play vs this type of player. I Also sometimes I feel when you make these nitty folds a lot of times it may hurt you in the furure if someone is paying attention. They may label you at a nit for folding. I don't think its a huge deal bit it's something to consider.

Oh it's a nightmare hand against opponents range for sure. The prize is insane though. You just don't need hit that often to make profit. There's no need to get attached over something even like TPGK if it faces pressure at all.

No, you're not going to win this pot often. The call pre isn't hugely EV+ but it's something.

It worked the other way, I actually did some counting instead of just posting and I think this is a tight fold. Call seems to be around $ 3-5 negative. It's obviously possible to outplay opponents post-flop to make up the difference but given positions, it seems like an uphill battle. I guess the best hope is that they both have FPS which gives you free cards.

This hand is truly horrible against villains ranges. Suited is obviously a snap-call

Meh, I calculated it in NL1k, around $1.5-3 in 500NL.

I think V's range is rather inelastic and either has AKdd specifically and isn't bluffing nor hero calling river or has a made hand that he went for pot control with on the flop like AA/KK/JJ, all of which are most likely checking behind river if you check but might hero call if you bet since your line looks pretty fos. Way more likely he has a pair of some sort than a missed draw so I would jam.

Grunch

Competent player (debated-able due to 3b sizing) and hasn't 3b? Inst-muck to almost all players (exceptions due to specific stack sizes, set mining and having a known history w/ villain and knowing his 3b habits.) We are generally dominated and playing the hand OOP. In this hand, I'd be folding almost all unpaired hands here.

As played. $150-205 on river.

I feel you as to why you opened pre cause I'm a victim to that in live but it's still a fold pre. Then like what the post above says utg+1 is three betting for the first time (2x 3bet so is he might not be that good haha) and you're oop against 2 players with a hand that has a lot of Reverse implied odds, I'd probably fold.

As played I'm betting AT LEAST 200 on the river

I'm really surprised that people are all saying to bet on the river. Let's pretend V range is only AdAc, KdKc, AdKd, JdJc. I'm just giving 4 discrete hands because it's easier to solve this puzzle that way. Hero is player A and Villain in player B.

Look at players ranges more closely in the 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1:
A c/r turn and bets $200 on river. A's range is heavily weighted to 2pr+ hands. He has some missed draws and some pair + draw hands that are continuing as a bluff as well. But I think B will fold AdKd, JdJc 100% of the time. Let's say B calls 100% of the time with AA and KK which I think is generous. Then 50% of the time we win $200 more and 50% of the time we win 0 more. That averages out to $100 extra dollars by betting $200 on river.

Scenario 2:
A c/r turn and checks the river. A's range is heavily weighted to missed draws and some pair + draw combos that have showdown value. For example QJ, J9 could are definitely candidates for hands that A plays this way. A's range is completely capped to weak 1 pair hands when he plays the hand this way.

If I am B and I know A's range is capped to 1 pair hands that are not strong, I should be betting 100% of my range. I bet AdAc and KdKc for value, and I turn JJ and AK into bluffs because I don't expect A to call ever. B should show a very good overall profit by betting $200 with 100% of his range.

This means that by checking, A will win $200 100% of the time instead of $200 50% of the time. A's profit is double by checking vs betting.

Obviously this is a simple example but I think it illustrates my point. I think checking is much better than betting the river.

Ok so basically there was no point to the thread and you were just looking for validation.

You're assuming too much. V is obviously not that competent. Remember how he thinks about his hand and the game. Llsnl fish players are notorious for being calling stations so play into his weakness. Fish always think people are trying to bluff them

My points for the thread were
1) Find out if my range assumptions are correct. Yes I was looking for validation - mainly validation that V has very few strong hands by river. If everybody said it's really common for V to check back sets, top pair and over pairs on the flop and then just call the c/r with all of these hands then I would adjust how I play against opponents in the future based on that.

2) I also posted the hand because I learned a lot from playing this hand and thinking about it afterwards. I wanted to share it because it made me see poker differently. Poker often feels more fuzzy to me and situations like when to slow play big hands vs not seemed more like art then science. But I realized that a lot of hands I play can be boiled down to a logic puzzle. It made me think about how to
a) Narrow villains ranges based on each street
b) Deceive villain into narrowing my range incorrectly
c) Maximize profit sometimes by making decisions that seem counterintuitive

Why don't you go post in the psychology section and ask if the following questions will elicit identical replies?

Are you really shocked that when you suggested the answer you wanted, that one person followed your suggestion?

You're wasting everyone's time creating multiple threads looking to hear what you want to hear.

All your threads proved is that people can make bad pre-flop calls, get lucky, think they're smart, and still be seeking validation.

If V knows all this to be true, he'd just jam all in on turn with AA and KK so that you don't find folds with whatever lol pair+draw nonsense/flush draw nonsense you'd c/r on turn and brick on river. He isn't as likely to valuebet AA here as you think. Def not 100%. The only hands that you are getting value from are non A-hi flushdraws that missed. Those hands prob don't even exist in his range given preflop.

I mean seriously, why would he bet with AA or KK after you check river? You can't call with busted flush draws, and you shouldn't call with QJ, so wtf? AA and KK are pretty easy check backs on the river if V is even semi competent, but they may bluff catch you with a relatively high frequency.

This statement is contradictory. If V expects you to fold with everything then how can he value bet KK/AA?

C/r the turn is awful after pfr checks flop and gets checked behind him.

People aren't likely to have strong enough hands to bet, let alone call a check raise.