Hero is on limpy passive table. Opening a lot of hands and balancing range. Villain is in SB and is passive fish who rarely opens pre, calls a lot, and hero has never seen him showing a bluff after betting a river.
Hero - 180
Villain - 200
Folds to hero UTG+2, open to 3.50 with 34ss. BTN, BB, SB all call.
Flop (£14) - 474rainbow
Villain donks for £15, folds to hero. Hero raises to £40. (I think he can have a 7x or 88,99,1010,JJ and will call raise plus at least one more street, and most of his range won't like a lot of turn cards so value from those hands now is important).
Villain calls.
Turn (£94) - Q.
Villain checks. Hero bets £30. (Want all of his pairs to be able to peel to the river with only 1 over).
Villain calls.
River (£154) K.
Villain jams all in, looking extremely comfortable and happy with his hand. I believe this is genuine and that he is certain he is winning.
Please just fold pre. This hand is a great example of how bad hands get you in bad spots. Players at this level aren't good/observant enough to make these types of raises worthwhile.
Flop is fine. Turn your SPR is 1.45. If you want to get this hand in, I'd just shove here. You should never be b/f with an SPR that low when you have trips against a bad player. Plus shoving looks probably looks bluffier to opponent. If something really tells you that you don't want to get this hand in- which is fine, because you actually are in a WA/WB situation after he calls flop raise- then check behind, with the intention of likely calling his non-shove river bet or value-betting if checked to you.
As played you pretty much have to call river, but I wouldn't expect to win much more than pot odds indicate. FWIW, I think you're chopping a fair amount here, too.
Preflop is a spew. We are now going to a bloated 4way pot, not in position (actually fairly lucky we have position on 2 of the 3 opponents, methinks), with the mighty 4 high. Pretty easy fold preflop.
I would make up my mind on the flop whether I was comfortable in stacking off here. If I was, then I'd raise in order to ensure stacks get in. If I wasn't, I'd play a lot more passively and maybe wait until later streets to decide if I should be raising given villain's action. My usual conservative nature probably has me leaning towards calling the flop and evaluating the situation later to decide if I should be playing for stacks, cuz if we've misread him being able to lead with 4x/77 we're making a huge mistake.
As played, I'd probably bet more on the turn, but so long as we can play for stacks on the river (which we've decided to do thanks to our flop raise) I'm cool with most reasonable bet sizes here.
Tough spot on river with only 2/3 PSB left. I can only think of one hand that we're likely ahead of here (AA) as even KK/QQ have caught up. I manage a fold here against a non-bluffy player.
Tough spot on river, since you're probably chopping at best, and lose to A4/77 which can easily be out there. Then again, you have $73 of $180 invested. Without a pristine read, in the heat of the moment I probably call here.
Opening a lot of hands and balancing range. . . .
Folds to hero UTG+2, open to 3.50 with 34ss.
Opening a lot of hands: Yes.
Balancing: No.
Just so you know, if you're raising 43s in EP, that means you're raising about 70% of hands pf in EP. Not very balanced.
Ikes has it nailed. If your raising 70% of hand in EP pf, you have to call the shove, since your FOS rating is extremely high. Now if you tell us, "No, I wasn't raising nearly 100% on the button in limped pots and no way I'm raising 70% of hands in EP," then the answer may be different.
