Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel9861
This is irrelevant since V is most likely a fish from his limp/rr line, and fish don't like to fold strong overpairs postflop, and especially overpairs in 3bet pots, and especially against someone who already stacked them once.
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Players do have a fold button. We haven´t gotten any info in OP that he stacks off with an overpair no matter what. he´s described as somewhat sticky, yes; but not a total station incapable of folding no matter the runout.
I always think if we are facing a situation without very strong reads we should play hands as good as possible in a vacuum instead of making a very exploitable play; here, we got to the river with a hand with zero SDV, the total bottom of our range, and the betting lead. We are able to tell a credible story. we should have bluffs in our range. River is a must jam imo, and I also don´t think we are overbluffing since this is about the only realistic bluff we should have here unless hero overfloats on the flop like crazy.
Also, villain will have AhXx a non-zero percentage of the time.
I think the hand is played fine if hero jams. If you get caught for a 130bb bluffjam, oh well... We hear repeatedly in this forum that it´s all about information and taking exploitable lines, if we shove here we got very valid information no matter the outcome; whatever he does from snap folding to tank calling, we gain valid information about his play we would not get otherwise.
(not saying by any stretch we make this play to gain information tho. It´s just a side effect.)