Hi guys, i had a tough spot, so let me know what you think.

Late on a sunday night. The game is a mixed bag so far, some tough regs but also some nice fun players.

Villain (CO) is a nerdy/hipster looking WG. We have no real history but i know he's a good online grinder. 3betting a bunch and playing aggressively so far without going to showdown much. 3k stack.

Hero (MP) is a 30 something WG who has been active but not necessarily laggy. 2.5k stack.

Preflop:
Hero opens to 20 in MP with AsJd
Villain calls, BTN calls, both blinds come along.

(BTN is one of the fun/spewy players, getting increasingly drunk as the night moves along. SB and BB are decent regs)

Flop (100):
JhTd5s


The blinds check, Hero checks, Villain bets 70, only Hero calls

I could bet but it's a dry board, i want some pot control and perhaps checking induces BTN to spew a bit.

Turn (240):
JhTd5s 2c

Hero checks
Villain bets 230
Hero calls

Standard, i assume?

River (700):
JhTd5s 2c 6h

Hero checks
Villain bets 750
Hero...?

Blegh.

So he has 12 combo's of JT and 6 of 55. Let's also give him 2 combo's of TT. Pretty sure he 3bets some of those and all of JJ pre. Since i'm getting a little less than 2:1, i need him to have >10 bluff combo's to call profitably. There are 16 combo's of KQ, plus Q9s and 89s adds up to 24. Of course some of those he might 3bet pre, some he might not call pre (Q9s in particular), or just give up with at some point.
Imo my hand looks somewhat face up/capped, allthough i could definitely still have JJ.

So, call fold or raise? Feel free to comment on any part of the hand, as always any feedback is appreciated.

Standard c-bet OTF. Let someone tell you you're beat. Rest of the hand is why flop is a c-bet.

5 way pot......I wouldn’t call this a dry board......how’s that plan of checking the flop with TPTK to pot control going?

You can’t pot control when you aren’t last to act. You got yourself into this mess, might as well see it through.

I'd start with cbetting. It's a tricky spot cause you are capped at 1 pair here so if he's the slightest bit decent he could be trying to blast you off. But he is betting into 3 people on the flop so mostly just has it. Seems like one of those spots you either fold the turn or call turn call all safe rivers.

C-bet, as others stated. Really important to have initiative in the hand against good players.

Villain has done a good job of repping 2p+ here, and I would give him credit for the hand. I don't think there are many triple barrel bluffs, but this would be a spot where there could be one, and really the only good bluff is KQ (89 can too, but can only improve to a straight, whereas KQ can improve to top pair and the nut straight). So 16 combos of KQ, plus 16 combos of 89 that I discount a little, versus 6 combos of JT (not 12 like you said, 2 J's and one T is on the board/in your hand) and 3 combos each of TT and 55. That is roughly 32 combos of bluffs, and I discount the 89 combos so let's call it 24 combos of bluffs versus 12 combos total of JT, TT, and 55.

The next question becomes, how many of those combos is he going to take this line with, and how often? The value combos I expect this every time, whereas with the bluff combos I expect villain to check back the turn sometimes and to give up on the river sometimes. It's close, and absent any intuition from being at the table with the guy, I'd probably be folding this.

EDIT: There are also 6 combos of AJ for a chop.

Another cbet vote here. Way too many cards putting you in a gross spot on the turn, and even a good card can put you in a gross spot because you gave up control of the pot to an aggressive player who has position on you.

As played, obviously a raise is out of the question.

If V has been 3betting as frequently as you say he has been, then this is never KQ or TT.

It's a gross, high variance call, but probably the correct play. Hard to imagine V going for three streets of heavy value as he did unless he has 55 or JT (which you block).

If you are correct on this, that takes my above comment from 24 bluffs to 8 bluffs, and 12 value combos down to 9. So the bluff/value/chop ratio is 8:9:6 assuming that villain doesn't fold all of his 89o. We could go further and say that he also 3b! light with 89s some of the time, further decreasing the bluffs in his hand. It just feels like a fold here the more I look at it.

Agree with All above about Continuation Betting. Skimming through originally, I just assumed that you bet the flop, not villain.

As played, I think you should call the river while expecting to lose a decent portion of the time. I'd expect him to flip over 55/TT about 30% of the time, JT 15-20% of the time, KQ/Q9/89 about 40-45% of the time, and a random hand with some showdown that he is turning into a bluff (AT, 75, J9s, etc.) the rest.

My problem with folding here is that Hero has shown a tremendous amount of weakness here on all streets. Is V ever putting him on AJ/KJ?

If he's not, why would he bet $750 into a $700 pot OTR? V is probably putting Hero on AT. He knows he's not getting a call for $750 here. Based on the way the hand played out, there's almost nothing in Hero's calling range for $750.

I also think hands like ATs and QTs can also be in V's range here, by the way.

I agree Hero is somewhat underrepped here, but Hero did call 70% pot OTF and basically 100% OTT. Those two calls should narrow our range down to Jx OTR. If villain has a set or top two, he has gotten big value on two streets and would be targeting AJ/KJ with his (slight) overbet OTR for fat value. On the other hand, if he has a missed SD, he could certainly be trying to get AJ/KJ to fold, however SD's are going to check back some turns and give up some rivers. It's close, and I wouldn't necessarily vehemently argue against a call, but I lean to a fold still.

FWIW, I don't think AT/QT are really in range here, given the aggression from villain. Those hands block what he wants us to have and aren't very good hands to bluff with. Middle pair should be checked, especially multiway, imo.

fold pre, if not raise more pre. AP im probably callling down vs V in question. You could consider a turn fold, but river I think is a call. I think hed play KQ/98 like this, and i think hed check back JT, os its a pretty polarized range, probably exactly 55 or KQ/98. He doesnt have Jj/TT here if he is 3 betting a lot.

Turn and river are pretty marginal, so i wouldnt beat yourself up on a fold or a call in either street.

In an unopened pot in MP you are folding AJo pre? Why?

Because it's near the bottom of a tight opening range and he has a good online grinder on his left.

We're 500bb deep. AJo is no where near the bottom of a decent opening range from MP.

[QUOTE = Because it's near the bottom of a tight opening range and he has a good online grinder on his left. [QUOTE]

Are we folding 77 - 99 as well? What does our open range look like with a good player on the left? Are we only playing AA and KK until we get the button and then we can add JJ?

Rack up and quit if you're gonna fold pre

I think the original intent was that Hero is better off folding than raising too small, and should have raised larger.

I don't necessarily agree, but let's not devolve into a feces throwing competition.

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

The hand is very well played. You should post more.

As played i dont think I could fold. It sucks bc gen pop tendency is psb always = value, its just such a reliable read I fall back on it all the time.

That said, we have the nut bluffcatching hand and a villain who is capable, and reps very thin, and its a JTx flop that missed both ways. I would call.

Just checking, are you sure of the suits (meaning 2 available JTs combos, and turn completed rainbow?)

I was just answering the question that was asked. If you are deepstacked, in MP, and a player more skilled than you is in the CO, you should strongly consider dumping AJo pre, it is extremely marginal in that situation. Because I'm delusional enough to never admit that a better player is IP on me, I would open to $20.

FWIW there is nothing wrong with folding AJo in MP (utg 6 max) esp. with a 3b monkey in the co and a station otb. Its probably the best play for most. Its going to be very marginal at best in a good game.

But our main focus should be a seat change.

Snap call river. We've underrepped our hand and there are a lot of busted straight draws in Villain's range.

Even without any tendency reads to rely on, bluff inducing can easily compete with straight value betting in this spot, but the kicker is that it has to correspond with correct bluff catching - and that can be hard against a seemingly competent/agro player.
Need to call.

Thanks 2 all for the replies. I'm gonna cherrypick some quotes to comment on.

I realize i'm paraphrasing somewhat, but this makes it seem like we are cbetting for information? For one, i dont think this particular villain will give us 'correct' information. Also, it's kinda hard for villain or both reggy blinds to call with dominated hands when i bet into 4 players. At the very least it's gonna be hard to get 2 barrels in vs them.

I do agree i'm giving up initiative and probably missing out on value vs the BTN, so there's certainly reason to cbet. I'm still not convinced that it's that big of a missed opportunity just yet.

I feel like 89 would be a more logical 3barrel since it has less equity/SDV than KQ. On the other side he might 3bet KQ some of the time so those might even out somewhat.

Based on previous hands i feel like he was barrelling quite a bit, but again, not many hands have gone to showdown and he hasn't used this sizing before. But his betting frequency seems hiiiiiiiigh.

On the other hand, i just called a PSB ott and he still bombs river....

Folding pre feels really nitty with a top 12% hand, but i can imagine folding this specific hand and maybe putting a few more hands in my opening range from MP that do better vs a 3bet.

And fwiw, i had 2 fun players directly to my right who happened to fold pre in this hand.

This ended up being my thinking as well. I have almost the top of my range here so from a theoretical POV i should be mostly calling here. I block JT somewhat and i don't block any of his bluffs. So i call and...



Again, thanks to all for the feedback!

You get called by KJ/QJ as well as Q9.

In regards to "this particular villain," you had no idea he'd be the particular villain until the turn.

Also, you don't need to double barrel. You can always check the turn. While I agree it's hard to get lots of value from better players, I think it's definitely worth it to go for at least one street. Not to be result oriented, but this hand does show that you likely would have lost less had you bet folded vs check called.